Circio Holding ASA (CRNA) - tidl: Targovax (TRVX) 1

[Martins]

Da regner jeg med at bunn er satt og at vi da kan regne ut mulig konverteringskurs.
Hvis det er tilfellet blir Atlas kurs ca. 0,62*0,92=0,57kr.
37,5M/0,57kr= 65,79M aksjer.
Dette blir ca. tall, men det som kan forventes.
188 577 572+65,79M=254,4M aksjer etter første konvertering (gitt at alt tas på en gang).
Det gir eierandel 25,86% av Targovax.

4-5 børsdager er gått siden første av de 3 laveste dagene, så de har 11-12 handelsdager på seg til å konvertere, eller måtte gjøre det på høyere kurs. Gitt at dette var bunnen, som er antakelsen dette hviler på.

Tenker de lar den muligheten gå fra seg. Volumet er ikke høyt nok til å konvertere i disse dager. Hvis volumet tar seg veldig opp uka etter påske av ukjent grunn ville det gjort meg skeptisk.

[aborum]

@Martins

Tenker de lar den muligheten gå fra seg

… i fald Atlas sidder stille på stærke PRs, så bliver der fart over sagerne; derfor, henter de ~65 mio aktier på ~0,60 og sidder et par måneder, så taler vi seriøse procenter. Hvad angår kursen for nærværende, må kronen være næste stop.

[Martins]

Ja, da er antakelsen at konvertering er forbundet med risikoanalyse, hvor tids-variablen til salg blir minimert ved å konvertere når salg er gjennomførbart. Det er da et ekvilibrium med noe slingringsmonn her, så det er ikke nødvendigvis sånn at tids-variablen må være absolutt lavest, men venter man lenge er det fort usikkert. Jeg tror de vil konvertere når de mener situasjonen er sånn at de kan gå i pluss på salget av det de konverterer, medregnet å selge med en gang(så fort de kan). Og at de ellers vil vente med salg.

[Bompiole]

pen oppang i dag også,måtte det fortsette

[Profit]

@Martins

Atlas kurs ca. 0,62*0,92=0,57kr.

Hvorfor gir du 8% rabatt?

Atlas requests bond conversion to shares

Price: 100% of VWAP average of 3 in 15 preceeding trading days

[VBR]

[Profit]

Stemmer, men det har med cash og gjøre og ikke kurs.

[anon79663630]

Har BOD begynt å kjøpe ? (6+8) Pennies from heaven.

[Celestar]

@anon79663630

Har BOD begynt å kjøpe ? (6+8) Pennies from heaven.

Burde ikke dette vært meldt i en børsmelding?

[VBR]

Dette er vel bare RSU`er fra tidligere i måneden?

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/584112

[Profit]

@anon79663630

Har BOD begynt å kjøpe ? (6+8) Pennies from heaven.

Oslo, 2 March 2023: Reference is made to Targovax ASA’s (“Targovax” or the

“Company”) stock exchange announcement published on 2 March 2023, regarding the

board of directors’ resolution to increase the Company’s share capital with NOK

10,378.90 by the issuance of 103,789 new shares, each with a nominal value of

NOK 0.10, in order to facilitate an exercise of 103,789 RSUs pursuant to the

Company’s RSU program for Board members.

· Primary insider, Diane Mellett, member of the board of directors, has

exercised 20,870 restrictive stock units (“RSUs”) under her RSU agreement and

subscribed for 20,870 new shares in the Company following the exercise of RSUs.

The exercise price for the options was NOK 0.10 per new share.

· Primary insider, Robert Burns, member of the board of directors, has

exercised 23,307 restrictive stock units (“RSUs”) under his RSU agreement and

subscribed for 23,307 new shares in the Company following the exercise of RSUs.

The exercise price for the options was NOK 0.10 per new share.

· Primary insider, Damian Marron, member of the board of directors, has

exercised 55,588 restrictive stock units (“RSUs”) under his RSU agreement and

subscribed for 55,588 new shares in the Company following the exercise of RSUs.

The exercise price for the options was NOK 0.10 per new share.

· Primary insider, Eva-Lotta Allan, member of the board of directors, has

exercised 4,024 restrictive stock units (“RSUs”) under her RSU agreement and

subscribed for 4,024 new shares in the Company following the exercise of RSUs.

The exercise price for the options was NOK 0.10 per new share.

Following the RSU exercise and subscription of new shares and the registration

of the share capital increase pertaining to the new shares with the Norwegian

Register of Business Enterprises (Nw. Foretaksregisteret), the above mentioned

primary insiders holds the following:

· Diane Mellett holds 122,948 shares, 104,388 RSUs and nil options in

Targovax.

· Robert Burns holds 298,761 shares, 43,071 RSUs and nil options in Targovax.

· Damian Marron holds 55,588 shares, 97,765 RSUs and nil options in Targovax.

· Eva-Lotta Allan holds 98,883 shares, 64,469 RSUs and nil options in

Targovax.

Please refer to the attached notification of trading for further details.

Notification by Primary Insiders

02.03.23.docx.pdf (https://mb.cision.com/Public/17093/3726627/8ed179f09261c940.p

[Bob_le_Plast]

Det er vel dags å kanskje antyde at vi har truffet bunnen og at de som på liv og døde måtte ut er ferdig med dumpingssalget?

Dagens subjektive tekniske analyse: Unz Unz Unz Unz!

[Truls2]

Tja, kan jo være at man har passert bunnen, men få tekniske holdepunkter her.
Dette er utviklingen siste året.

[Truls2]

Kan tilføye at jeg har investert noen 100k aksjer med nå et snitt på 0,72 . Dette ikke pga. lånefinansieringen som jeg tror skaper usikkerhet, men på troen at cRNA kan bli stort!

[anon79663630]

Sånn grovt regnet. Dersom Atlas konverterer på lavt 0,60-tall så har markedet pr i dag priset inn kontantene fra transje 1 med et negativt beløp tilsvarende ca MNOK 5, eller verdsatt IP`n med MNOK 33 mindre enn før finansieringen ble kjent.

[Bompiole]

Pause i morga?eller videre oppgang?var en del aksjer til salgs på 0.76 og oppover

[Roc]

RNA spacet, tatt fra Andrew Pannu. Tenkte det kunne være interessant for dere i Targo:

124 companies are segmented by approach and highest stage of development

Some takeaways:

• The space is exploding - 350+ total programs are targeting a diverse set of TAs. The most common are neuromuscular disorders (~20%), oncology (~18%), infectious disease (~14%) and neurology (~13%)

• By dev stage: ~50% PC, ~38% Ph1/2, ~8% Ph3 and ~4% Mktd.

• RNA therapies cover a range of mechanisms, molecule types and therapeutic aims. I’ve classified the space into three broad groups:

(1) RNA-based therapeutics
(1a): Endogenous RNA targeting (i.e. ASOs / PMOs, RNAi)
(1b): Direct RNA therapeutics (i.e. mRNA, RNA aptamers)
(1c): Other RNA molecules (i.e. tRNA, circRNA, IncRNA, etc.)

(2) RNA-targeted small molecules

(3) RNA sequence & structure modulation (i.e. CRISPR, ADAR, etc.)

• 16 RNA drugs have been FDA approved, with 2022 sales totaling $3.6B (excl. >$56B from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines). Sell-side estimates assume >$20B in annual sales by 2030, driven by new launches & more prevalent indications

• RNA-based therapeutics offer several advantages over other modalities:
Potential for rapid development
Able to treat a broad range of diseases that may be “undruggable”
Can be personalized (ultimately to 1 of 1 drugs)
Rapid cellular utilization vs. DNA therapies

• However, there are some drawbacks:
RNA is usually rapidly eliminated by immune system (part of the reason Moderna pivoted to vaccines), thus requiring several doses & inducing potential immunogenicity
Delivery is a challenge due to instability & tissue / cell uptake

• With that said, many companies are trialing novel delivery, dosing & design approaches to enhance stability, improve druggability and reduce immunogenicity. Next-gen approaches include targeting RNA with small molecules, protein replacement, “base editing for RNA” & much more

• Deal flow in this space has been robust, driven by a healthy mix of players: big pharma, mid-caps with deep pipelines and innovative biotechs + strong investor appetite

A few stats:
50+ licensing + collaboration deals over past few years, totaling >$40B of disclosed value
>$10B public financing since 2018
~$17B in M&A deal value since 2019, primarily driven by Novartis / Medicines Co. ($9.7B), Sanofi / TranslateBio ($3.2B) and Novo Nordisk / Dicerna ($3.3B)

• On the manufacturing & supply chain side, RNA therapies are a balancing act between reproducibility & stability. Manufacturing is generally cost-effective, scalable and reproducible (as we saw with mRNA vaccine rollouts). However, low stability means cold storage may be required

• Multiple companies are developing modular platform technologies that can be theoretically applied to a range of diseases via proven chemistry. Successful lead programs could thus “de-risk” the entire pipeline. How much belief investors / regulators have here is an open question

[anon79663630]

Så Targovax fortsatt under radaren, eller nye briller ? Litt merkelig med poster om knappe 2 uker.

[Roc]

Targos cDNA er nok fortsatt under radaren. En poster er bra primært for fagmiljøet, men en når noen investerer så kommer de på kartet.

[RakaBlakk]

@Roc

However, there are some drawbacks:
RNA is usually rapidly eliminated by immune system (part of the reason Moderna pivoted to vaccines), thus requiring several doses & inducing potential immunogenicity
Delivery is a challenge due to instability & tissue / cell uptake

Det er vel dette Targovax skal levere på. Og ligger i front? Selskapet sitter med et heftig potensial her for å si det mildt.