Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Elliptic Labs 1

Elektronikk
#5959

Resten av Elabs-teksten i dagens E24-artikkel (+):

– Selskapet har fått kontrakter med stort potensiale innenfor PC-segmentet, blant annet med verdens største PC-produsent Lenovo, sier Carnegie-analytiker Pisani.

Han tror at selskapet kan mangedoble inntektene de neste årene. Han forteller at Elliptic Labs nylig annonserte at deres programvare vil bli tilgjengelig i PC-modeller for konsumentmarkedet, noe som åpner et betydelig nytt vekstpotensial.

– Aksjen har imidlertid blitt slaktet etter litt svak guiding i førstekvartals-rapporten og et stort salg fra en større eier. Vi tror at dette er en god kjøpsmulighet.

Carnegie har kjøpsanbefaling på Elliptic Labs med kursmål på 20 kroner.

4 Likes
#5960

Mener jeg hadde lest denne var avklart og at de har fått penger? Men jeg er åpen for at jeg husker feil her.

#5961

For det det er verdt: Sparebank1 Markets (fra mai) har også kjøpsanbefaling på kr 20 per aksje (senket fra kr. 25 i mai). De estimerer nå 170m inntekter for 2024 og 30mEBIT. For 2025 er esimatene 300m/132m. Med disse forutsetninger mener de at at selskapet er “home free” med cash, men kommer ikke veksten som forventet kan likviditet komme under press i Q3-24 eller senere. De siste ukers meldinger mener de bidrar til å deriske.

1 Like
#5962

Jeg ville ikke lagt for mye vekt på hva disse analytikerne sier. De nevner masse selskaper og selvfølgelig vil noen av de gå godt. Mens andre ikke.

Om de hadde hatt litt skills hadde de ikke hatt en arbeidsgiver, men jobbet for seg selv som aksjehandler.

1 Like
#5963

Og Marius Borthen som kjøpte 200k i Elabs gjennom Bluberry C vil jeg si egentlig faller inn i denne kategorien. Han jobber ikke hos et meglerfirma, men har startet sitt eget fond som han har bygget opp på trust og gode resultater over tid helt fra studietiden. Dyktig kar. Veldig ordentlig. Hva han tenker om Elabs vet jeg ikke og han må få trade som han vil, men jeg synes man skal løfte frem folk som er dyktige og samtidig er flotte folk og virkelig står på - og det er/gjør han. Så litt markedsføring skal han få her.

8 Likes
#5964

Which one do you think is more probable?

A) Management is preparing an issue of new shares. After Passesta sold, share Price has been destroyed. This would lead to a very strong dilution together with issue of shares. Elabs was forced to agree latest PC expansion agreements (in June) with poor conditions to avoid issue of shares.

B) Management is executing plans as they originally wanted. Latest expansion agreements are initial signs of recovering PC markets’ visibility and more similar agreements are coming. Management was not planning for issue of shares and they got such a prising that they wanted in latest deals.

1 Like
#5965

What do you think?

I think it’s most probable that the board is monitoring the cash position closely not to risk a liquidity crisis. If they need cash, they’re ready to act.
Laila said that they don’t trade long term profitability for short term wealth. If they step away from that the case is dead to me.

#5966

I think it could be both, impossible to say from outside. I still believe in the company and the management.

Potential issue of shares would have to be done in time, a lot before cash runs out, so it can’t be fully ignored for now. Current share price would be awful for this.

I think this was the reply when Laila was asked about M&A, so to me it was clearly reading in between the lines that there would be acquirers already but the company wants to remain independent for value creation.

1 Like
#5967

As i recall it was related to contracts/pricing, but could be wrong

#5968

Strange post to make just now🤔 - they have just delivered by far the best Q1 and presented new PC contracts + 100 mill in cash.
So why would additional cash be needed now? It’s perfect to look at the company with critical eyes, but to set up strange scenarios because you’re bored during the summer holidays! instead go out and enjoy the sun☀️ and bring this topic up if Q2 is way under expectation🫣.
Or come up with a plausible and negative reason why the infusion of capital should be needed right now?

#5969

Speaking of expectations - what are the expectations for Q2 2024 and how do we know if revenue/ebitda are above or below expectation?

My expectations is solely on revenue and is between 20-50 mNOK. I can not give a good reason for this :slight_smile:

#5970

Ikke rart i det hele tatt. Elabs er i en posisjon hvor emisjon er relevant uavhengig av at det ser bedre ut nå. De har svært sårbare kontrakter.
Så er det kjipt at aksjen er så langt nede da.

#5971

I must be the first to admit that the expectations for this company, in terms of their numbers and Q reports, are really hard to predict🧐
When I look at the number of new contracts + expected revenue on ongoing PC contracts, announcements from the management and updated analyzes on the company. Is my expectation between 30-40 mNok. If we are in the lower range or below, I will reduce my position and await Q3-4 numbers. If we are over 40, then I will sell my dog and buy more :sunglasses:

3 Likes
#5972

FactSet consensus by 2 analysts is 35mNOK of revenues in Q2. However I do not see Q2 numbers being the big issue in this case. Its very much under the chapter “outlook” in their quarterly report - when will they finish those key contracts with new OEMS… etc.

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#5973

Anyone can provide key points as bullet points here? I’m only familiar with fin/eng/ little swe :smiley: Thanks

4 Likes
#5974

Dersom de leverer likt/over Q2 2023 så er jeg meget fornøyd i alle fall. Spesielt mtp det gode Q1 så frykter jeg litt lavere Q2, men krysser fingrene for vekst yoy :slight_smile:

#5975

In 2023 they burned 60m NOK from their cash. Now they have 115m NOK in cash. If we expect to see rising revenues, then cash burn will of course become lower. Lets say we would have -30m NOK or 85m NOK of cash left after upcoming 12 months.

As CFO, I would insist a minimum of 1 year cash burn as reserve (somewhere between 30-60m NOK) in any situation. Therefore it could be considered that in case cash-flow break even is not achieved in next 12 months, we could be close to needing more cash. It all depends on how much effort is put into R&D, hiring of staff etc.

So even there is 100m NOK cash, don’t expect the “margin of safety” to be where cash is just about to run dry. Unprofitable companies could require high equity ratios to be compelling in the eyes of larger companies. I.e. to be seen as capable of delivering

#5976

Recall that they have a huge amount of customer credit - which can be financed by factoring if in case of need, easey fix given the high credit rating of their most important customers. This must be taken into account, hence I cannot see any need for even discussing share issues unless we have Q2 AND Q3 at very low income levels.

1 Like
#5977

The natural consequence of this timeline you see would be that, a capital raise is a topic best discussed in 1Q or 2Q 2025. And if business aren’t better by then, ELABS is a write-off anyway in my head after several years as an investor.

1 Like
#5978

I largely agree with what is written - except that you are not the CFO of the company and therefore your expectations of what should be of cash in the company are not useful.
In addition, concluded contracts can also have an influence on how much cash is needed.
But, as I said, I agree with most of your post and that is why I also think that discussion about emissions is nonsense right now!
Let’s talk about it if Q2 is seriously disappointing or if in Q4 they are still burning money

1 Like