Ble gang på preorderen etter denne :
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Superpower 3 har vært ute noen timer og har fått 329 reviews. Antall reviews er OK men med 6% positive kan man vel ikke si noe annet enn at dette er tragisk. Er jo på nivå med Leviathan DLCen til EUIV som har 4730 reviews 1.5år etter release med 10% positive.
Uansett så bør slike launcher få konsekvenser…
Her er en av de positive reviewene :
The most fun part of this game is actually modifying the leaders’ outlooks I was doing it for an hour;
as for the game play it was a crap, still funny than google map though
Og her er en annen :
First!!
EDIT: Ser jo også at Golemlabs som har utviklet Superpower 3 ble fjernet fra utviklingen av The Guild 3 en stund etter EA launchen :
The Guild 3 Receives New Developer to Bring it Out of Early Access (dualshockers.com)
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Kort version av Pareto sin Embracer analyse.
Full analyse hos Pareto for kunder.
Lowering estimates ahead of Q2
Embracer Group will report its Q2’22/23 report on the 17th of November, where we will finally get some sales data on Saints Row. The game has not been received as well as we had hoped, but we remain confident that the game will have a positive ROI. We do however lower our estimates for the PC/Console Games segment because of the weaker than expected reception of the game which, coupled with lowered estimates for the Mobile Games segment and weaker valuations for gaming companies in general, makes us lower our TP to SEK 96 (130).
Lowering our estimates and TP from SEK 130 to SEK 96 due to:
- Lower sales estimates for Saints Row, where we had previously expected 0.8-1.5m copies sold on console over the first two months post launch, now we expect 0.6-1.0m.
- Decent reception for the other two main releases during Q2’22/23, namely Way of the Hunter and Destroy All Humans 2, but we had expected a slightly better reception, causing lower estimates for the operating group THQ Nordic.
- While Embracer is not suffering from weak growth in in-game purchases, as its mobile games are mainly monetized through ads, its Mobile Games segment is likely to have weaker growth this year than in FY’21/22, and we believe we will begin to see the tough macro climate start effecting its Mobile Games segment’s revenue negatively from Q2’22/23 and forward, as advertising spend slows down.
- Valuation pressure has been significant across gaming companies over the past 12-18 months, and particularly over the past 6 months, and due to that we adjust down our target multiple for Embracer from previously ~14x EV/EBIT adj. on FY’23/24E to 10x.
Valuation at SEK ~54 per share looks cheap
- Our DCF supports an equity value of SEK 112 per share, while our target multiple of 10x EV/EBIT adj., discounted at our WACC of 7%, implies an equity value per share of SEK 79. Given a 50/50 weighting between the DCF and peer valuation we reach a TP of SEK 96, which implies an EV/EBIT adj. multiple on FY23/24’s estimates of 10.3x and a large share price upside from today’s levels. The valuation our target price implies entails a premium to Ubisoft but a discount to peers such as EA and Take-Two (more in-depth reasoning on this on the following page).
Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):
Joakim Walldoff, +46 8 402 52 85, joakim.walldoff@paretosec.com
Stefan Wård, +46 8 402 5287, stefan.ward@paretosec.com
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Rising storm 2 gratis sist uke og Evil dead neste uke :
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Oppdatert analyse fra Pareto, full rapport får man som kunde hos Pareto.
Decent quarter but weaker outlook
Embracer’s Q2’22/23 report beat topline and organic growth estimates from both PAS and consensus but came in lower on EBIT adj. More importantly however, the company lowered its FY’22/23 guidance, and talks about spin-offs and a special review internally caused confusion, sending the stock down ~16% on the reporting day. We have lowered estimates and our valuation to reflect the lowered guidance and some uncertainty regarding the near-term strategy, with our updated TP at SEK 72 per share (96).
Confusion regarding spin-offs and strategy ahead
The talk about spin-offs from CEO Lars Wingefors has caught investors and analysts, us included, by surprise, and has caused some confusion regarding the strategy going forward. We believe that spin-offs could make sense, where a Coffee Stain, for example, probably would trade at a greater valuation as a standalone company than as part of Embracer. At the same time, why would Embracer spin off one of its better operating units? Maybe the mention of spin-offs and the special review were just ways of signaling from Wingefors that he is prepared to do whatever it takes to take Embracer through what looks like an upcoming economic downturn. Regardless, the talk of spin-offs and the special review and the entailing confusion it seems to have caused has meant a sharp decline in the stock and has resulted in more questions than answers regarding Embracer’s near-term strategy. We believe this warrants a slightly lower valuation at this time until more clarity can be brought forward from the company.
We lower estimates for both FY’22/23 and FY’23/24
For FY’22/23, we take down topline slightly, to reflect the push of Dead Island 2 to Q1’23/24, and also take down EBIT adj. to SEK ~8.6bn to reflect the new SEK 8-10bn guidance for FY’22/23. We lower our FY’23/24 estimates to reflect lowered sales expectations for the Tabletop segment, due to an expected weaker economy ahead, slightly lower sales expectations for the PC & Console Gaming segment, to reflect a weaker gaming market than previously expected, and also lowered sales expectations for the Mobile Gaming segment, to reflect weaker CPMs.
Valuation remains too low in our view
We continue to believe that Embracer deserves to be valued higher than Ubisoft but lower than TakeTwo and EA over time. Our TP of SEK 72 reflects this view, and entails a valuation of 8.3x EV/EBIT adj., which is higher than Ubisoft and lower than the average of TakeTwo’s and EA’s valuations on 2024E.
Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):
Joakim Walldoff,
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Redeye oppdaterer også:
Bekymringer rundt endret guiding og strategisk review er årsaken til fallet mener de. Kjøpsanledning?
Bear Case SEK 72 Base Case SEK 116 Bull Case SEK 157
Enda en aksje som har fått føle post-covid effekten i Sverige dessverre.
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Jeg er faktisk usikker. Tror Pareto er inne på noe :
“talks about spin-offs and a special review internally caused confusion,”
og ikke utenkelig at de treffer med denne og :
“Maybe the mention of spin-offs and the special review were just ways of signaling from Wingefors that he is prepared to do whatever it takes to take Embracer through what looks like an upcoming economic downturn”
EDIT: Føler også de fleste spillene de har sluppet i det siste hadde gjort det en del bedre hvis de hadde utsatt spillene 1-3 måneder. Hvia man f.eks ser på Dakar desert rally så var en stor del ( 5%+) av de negative reviewene i starten pga at man ikke kunne rebinde keys + manglet support for en del kontrollere. Utsettelsen av DI2 tolker jeg som om de ikke vil ha et nytt saints row.
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Coffee Stain er magiske på flere områder 
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EDIT:
" And Roblox has drawn developers like Hello Neighbor universe creator TinyBuild, Twin Atlas studio, and Embracer Group, which brought Welcome to Bloxburg into Roblox via Coffee Stain Studios."
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