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Norsk Hydro

nhy_ol
Investeringer: #<Tag:0x00007ff2729e3308>

#41

Det gjør den, men vet ikke helt om Graham modellen er den beste å bruke på et råvareselskap som Norsk Hydro. Når det er sagt så har den en brukbar p/e og bra p/b vis-a-vis kursen og da får man en bra sikkerhetsmargin. Norsk Hydro har falt siden litt før Alunorte skandalen ble offentliggjort, men fallet ble forsterket ytterligere av den. Jeg har lest meg litt opp på saken, og fulgt med på den noe, men langt fra noen ekspert . Det virker for meg som at det er en overreaksjon og at Norsk Hydro blir enige med myndighetene i Brasil og full produksjon opptas ila. året. Kan være at investorer har skiftet til mer olje og oppdrett ila. året og at det straffer aksjen også noe - who knows?

Selskapets inntjening i 2018 blir selvfølgelig påvirket av den, og det vil gjøre utslag på cashflow og tilslutt utbytte. Men jeg kjøpte meg inn på en pris i år som var det laveste aksjen har vært på siden juni 2017. I mitt hode ser jeg ikke for meg at prisen blir vesentlig lavere ila. året, hvis ikke det skulle skjære seg helt med myndighetene i Brasil, men det tror jeg ingen av partene er tjent med - det er bare en magefølelse. Så jeg tror bunnen er midten av 40-tallet.

Pris rundt midten av 40 tallet har i følge Graham sin modell en god sikkerhetsmargin, og det bør være betryggende som sådan. Videre er Norsk Hydro veldig aksjonær fokusert og har en bra yield, og foruten om 2008 så har de betalt ut utbytte så langt bak jeg fant data. Videre har de en bra ledelse. Slår du det sammen med en lang historie så tror jeg det er et trygt alternativ, og fremover kan det gi en fornuftig stigning hva gjelder aksjekurs.

Det prates mye om makro, hva skjer med aluminiumsprisene pga. svakere vekst i Kina, eller handelskrigen mellom Kina og USA. Jeg vet ikke hvordan det plays out , men det jeg vet er at verden trenger aluminium fremover, og Norsk Hydro er flinke på å produsere det.

Jeg tror ikke en trenger å gjøre det vanskeligere enn som så, men noen folk liker å dytte så mange faktorer som overhode mulig inn i beslutningsprosessene sine, jeg er av det “enklere” slaget og tar beslutninger på et enkelt grunnlag, det funker i alle fall for meg.


#42

Hver måned kårer jeg det jeg kaller Teksperter™ for noen av de mest populære investeringene våre :slight_smile:

Det er de 3 medlemmene som har fått flest likes på innleggene sine de siste 90 dagene. Teksperter™ får også en unikt merke på profilen sin og et trofé-ikon ved siden av navnet sitt. Du kan bli Tekspert™ i flere aksjer/investeringer, og troféet vil bare vises i tråder der du er Tekspert™.

Her er denne månedens Teksperter™ og det mest likte innlegget deres fra de siste 90 dagene:

  1. @Ompalompa (5 likes)
  1. @aksjefokus (4 likes)
  1. @Christian (3 likes)

Resten av topp 10:

  1. @tcb888 (1 likes)

Gratulerer!


#43

Norsk Hydro: New board member in Hydro

Arve Baade has been elected new member of Hydro.s Board of Directors. Baade replaces Billy Fredagsvik as one of the Board`s three employee representatives.

The Board of Directors in Hydro consists of chair Dag Mejdell, deputy chair Irene Rummelhoff, Finn Jebsen, Thomas Schulz, Marianne Wiinholt, Liselott Kilaas and the employee-elected board members Arve Baade, Sten Roar Martinsen and Svein Kåre Sund. 
 
Investor contact
Contact Stian Hasle
Cellular +47 97736022
E-mail [email protected]

Press contact
Contact Halvor Molland
Cellular +47 92979797
E-mail [email protected]

This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act

Nyheten er levert av GlobeNewswire.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20181001.GlobeNewswire.GNW1000101114-en


#44

Norsk Hydro: Alunorte announces full curtailment of its operations

Hydro.s alumina refinery Alunorte in Brazil announced today, October 3, that the plant is preparing for full curtailment of its operation. The decision was taken as the bauxite residue deposit area 1 (DRS1) is close to reaching its capacity, due to the embargo on the state-of-the-art press filter and the newly developed bauxite residue deposit area (DRS2).

Alunorte has been running at 50% production since March, following embargos from Brazilian authorities. Environmental authorities have confirmed that there was no spill or overflow from the residue areas. The embargos have prevented Alunorte from utilizing the newest bauxite residue deposit area (DRS2), which was under commissioning in February, as well as the state-of-art press filter technology, representing an investment of more than BRL 1 billion. The press filter is the most modern and sustainable technology for depositing bauxite residue, reducing the required storage area and environmental footprint. Alunorte has since the embargo made efforts towards authorities for permission to utilize the press filter, as well as DRS2, without success.  

Due to the embargo Alunorte has been forced to operate only DRS1, which was originally planned to be phased out, and the less efficient drum filters. DRS1 is therefore approaching its end of life faster than anticipated, forcing Alunorte to take the responsible decision to temporarily shut down 100% of its operations. This will have immediate effect on the bauxite mine Paragominas, which will also shut down 100% of operations. Both Alunorte and Paragominas have initiated the shutdown process safely.

.Our people have been working hard during the last seven months to maintain safe operations and preserve jobs. This is a sad day because we have the world.s most advanced technology available to continue safe operations, which we are prevented to use, and this will impact jobs, communities, suppliers and customers., says John Thuestad, EVP Bauxite & Alumina.

Hydro is working in collaboration with unions and will do its utmost to reduce the consequences for employees, but the decision to close Alunorte and Paragominas will impact direct and indirect employees at both plants.

While it is too early to determine the full impact, the decision to close Alunorte and Paragominas will have significant operational and financial consequences, potentially also for Hydro.s primary aluminium portfolio, including Albras.

.We will continue to work constructively with the authorities to lift the embargo and to resume operations in order to re-establish Alunorte as the world.s leading alumina refinery., says Thuestad.

Background

On February 16.17, the city of Barcarena, including Alunorte alumina refinery, was hit by an extreme rainfall, which continued in the following days. The rainfall caused flooding in the region. 

Internal and external reviews confirm that there was no overflow from the bauxite residue deposits or harmful spills from the February rain event. 

Since March 1, Alunorte has been operating at 50% of its capacity, following orders from SEMAS and the court system. Consequently, Paragominas bauxite mine and Albras aluminium plant have also reduced production by 50%. 

Both Alunorte and Paragominas have granted collective vacations to around 1,000 employees to preserve jobs and mitigate the impacts of the reduced activity. In July, Paragominas temporarily suspended work contracts for 80 employees and terminated 175 contractors.

On September 5, Alunorte signed two agreements representing a milestone to resume normal operations. The agreements include a technical Term of Adjusted Conduct (TAC) signed between Alunorte . Alumina do Norte do Brasil S.A, Norsk Hydro do Brasil Ltda, the Ministério Público Federal (MPF), the Pará State Ministério Público (MPPA), the State Government of Pará, represented by the Secretariat of State of Environment and Sustainability (SEMAS). In addition, a social Term of Commitment (TC) was signed between Alunorte - Alumina do Norte do Brasil S.A and the State Government of Pará. The TAC regulates certain technical improvements, audits, studies and payments for food cards to families living in the hydrographic area of the Murucupi River, while the TC addresses additional efforts and investments related to the social development of communities in Barcarena.

Investor contacts
Stian Hasle
+47 97736022
[email protected]

Olena Lepikhina
+47 96853035
[email protected]

Press contact
Halvor Molland
+47 92979797
[email protected]

Cautionary note
Certain statements included in this announcement contain forward-looking information, including, without limitation, information relating to (a) forecasts, projections and estimates, (b) statements of Hydro management concerning plans, objectives and strategies, such as planned expansions, investments, divestments, curtailments or other projects, © targeted production volumes and costs, capacities or rates, start-up costs, cost reductions and profit objectives, (d) various expectations about future developments in Hydro’s markets, particularly prices, supply and demand and competition, (e) results of operations, (f) margins, (g) growth rates, (h) risk management, and (i) qualified statements such as “expected”, “scheduled”, “targeted”, “planned”, “proposed”, “intended” or similar.

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, these forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions and forecasts that, by their nature, involve risk and uncertainty. Various factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected in a forward-looking statement or affect the extent to which a particular projection is realized. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are not limited to: our continued ability to reposition and restructure our upstream and downstream businesses; changes in availability and cost of energy and raw materials; global supply and demand for aluminium and aluminium products; world economic growth, including rates of inflation and industrial production; changes in the relative value of currencies and the value of commodity contracts; trends in Hydro’s key markets and competition; and legislative, regulatory and political factors.

No assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct.  Hydro disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act

Nyheten er levert av GlobeNewswire.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20181003.GlobeNewswire.GNW1000101300-en


#45

Jeezes, når man trodde man hadde en fin inngang på 44-tallet :sob:


#46

For oss som ikke er inne så kan vel dette vise seg å bli en fin kjøpsanledning? Utfordringene med de brasilianske myndighetene må vel kunne løses på sikt? Nå stenger jo både raffineriet og gruven, det merkes jo i samfunnet.


#47

Ser ut som det kan bli lang horisont på denne nedstengningen, 2 år er nevnt i en artikkel på DN.no. Det er jo drøyt hvis det viser seg på bli tilfelle.


#48

Er ikke fallet i dag overraskende lite?

Er en svær HS-formasjon på gang også, med det som ser ut som et brudd ned i dag. Fra hode til halslinjen er det64-45 = 19. Bruddet er 47, så ta blir target 47-19 = 28.

I utgangspunktet, så er dette patternet ranket som #1 av 21. http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html


Shape: rimelig bra (+)
Symmetry: rimelig bra (+)
Volume: ca like på begge sider (-)
Neckline: Jepp
Confirmation: jepp

image
Price reversal: det var en stor oppgang fra 30-ish
Trends: relativt kort opppgang
Velocity: høy
Neckline: går oppover (+)
Yearly high: 64-33% = 43 (-)
Volume trend: ingen
Pullback: jepp (-)
Symmetry: litt extended høyreskulder (-)

Min konklusjon: jeg hadde ikke sittet i aksjen i dag, dette kan bli veldig stygt. Det må en avtale til med Brasilianske myndigheter for at ikke denne HS-en skal få utfolde seg.


#49

Norsk Hydro: Invitation to conference call . update on Alunorte situation

Hydro will host a conference call at 17:00 UK time (18:00 CET, 12:00 AM EST) today, October 3. The conference call will be held by President and CEO Svein Richard Brandtzæg.

To join the conference call, please use the below “Click to Join” link 5-10 minutes prior to start time, where you will be asked to enter your phone number and registration details. The Event Conferencing system will call you on the phone number you provide and place you into the event. Please note that the “Click to Join” link will be active 15 minutes prior to the event.

Click to Join >>

Nyheten er levert av GlobeNewswire.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20181003.GlobeNewswire.GNW1000101333-en


#50

Norsk Hydro: Invitation to conference call . update on Alunorte situation - correction

Hydro will host a conference call at 17:00 UK time (18:00 CET, 12:00 AM EST) today, October 3. The conference call will be held by President and CEO Svein Richard Brandtzæg.

To join the conference call, please use the below “Click to Join” link 5-10 minutes prior to start time, where you will be asked to enter your phone number and registration details. The Event Conferencing system will call you on the phone number you provide and place you into the event. Please note that the “Click to Join” link will be active 15 minutes prior to the event.

[Click to Join >>](https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=1Wlmo6I6AQB-UqzrOxAHZ IfRw629AblY53pbk05YlYFV5dxj-qDDlVjNLam8f5de-1K5exBBNHvE2DbB5sRqk88fWnlJYfvotOBsNzSyMMyxJPbg2ptMKRbDVDHX6zODB2KrucR4fjcfj5zDxEf-M4cyCsr5w14WWYWcPWJ8n2vtP7Q_2w1YmPT5LhoMfF8U5-8Nfx7fGYaM1XZY57MjNTEfCzljxziClXnE0JPYlYC2sfiuflyISbXbARXQ81FQ wh4U3DgTApT4t8NnaaPw5PNnByrzZymIcn7XS4BPT8BLLZ4xDIl3R6K0OwdEpYd8kaObiYTd7myVPLS9bNmBKPFT5R8E2JzwtOb9VI9T0xnaTg7PxKbnp4I_iu1Z0eV_EKZu9z-_xMYTTpBPEMtUBUlC5SsoF3Wwl50eN5lpkMixpK0KTeFvpFlx80xnrIx4Ugw3XSDM0bOQCk85dyZTe6kwnW-A5L7R7ijH_to7uSlH5O6Rh_svwDaOrR8E8zawulKpdYKu9Mn1GNghocKDZjg1DvHLcevZ0gKEdBDZvD3qDWHpjcu2I2SXYpoX)

Please use the “Click to Join” option above for the easiest way to join the conference or use the dial-in numbers below.

Dial-in numbers for this conference call are:

Norway   +47 2350 0187
UK          +44 (0)330 336 9401
USA        +1 646-828-8195
Brazil      +55 11 3181 5103

Confirmation Code: 686624

Nyheten er levert av GlobeNewswire.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20181003.GlobeNewswire.GNW1000101348-en


#51

Tror fortsatt dette løser seg på sikt. Det kan tenke seg at dette er veldig politisk drevet. Kanskje at det er snart valg i Brasil spiller inn? Eller at det er hevn for Solberg møtet som noen hevder? https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/norsk-hydro/brasil-ekspert-om-hydro-skandalen-payback-time-mot-norge/24283902. Ikke vet jeg. Hydros egne rapporter viser at de ikke det ikke vær noe lekkasje.

Jeg tror ikke Brasil er tjent med enda flere arbeidsledige folk og mindre investeringer i landet sitt.

Hvis prisen faller under kr. 40 vil jeg nok gjennomføre ytterligere kjøp.


#52

Har du lyst til å kommentere hva du tenker om NHY? :slight_smile:


#53

#54

Noen som har en formening om hvor mye alumina som potensielt kan skaffes i løpet av oktober? Hvem er innenfor rekkevidde og med ledig kapasitet?


#55

#56

Norsk Hydro: Alunorte receives authorization to utilize press filter as first step to resume operations

Hydro.s alumina refinery Alunorte was granted an exceptional authorization, on October, 5, by federal environmental agency IBAMA to utilize its state-of-the art press filter technology in the processing of bauxite residues, which will extend the life of its DRS1 bauxite residue disposal area and allow Alunorte to continue operations on safe conditions.

Following IBAMA.s decision, Alunorte will be working with SEMAS, Secretary of State for Environment and Sustainability, to obtain the authorization to use the press filter on DRS1. This filter provides stackable residues with considerably less water content than the drum filter. After receiving this authorization, Alunorte will be able to re-start the operation at 50% of capacity.
           
.We are ready to re-start our operations and we thank for all the support that we have received from the authorities and society. We are now making every effort to go back to producing as we maintain our dialog with authorities to resume full production,. said John Thuestad, head of Hydro.s Bauxite and Alumina business area.

Thuestad adds that resuming 50 percent production at Alunorte would also allow Hydro.s bauxite mine Paragominas and its joint-venture primary aluminium smelter Albras to continue operating at half capacity, as opposed to being fully shut down as a consequence of Alunorte being idled.

Background 

On February 16.17, the city of Barcarena, including Alunorte alumina refinery, was hit by an extreme rainfall, which continued in the following days. The rainfall caused flooding in the region.  

Internal and external reviews confirm that there was no overflow from the bauxite residue deposits or harmful spills from the February rain event.  

Since March 1, Alunorte has been operating at 50% of its capacity, following orders from SEMAS and the court system. Consequently, Paragominas bauxite mine and Albras aluminium plant have also reduced production by 50%.  

Both Alunorte and Paragominas have granted collective vacations to around 1,000 employees to preserve jobs and mitigate the impacts of the reduced activity. In July, Paragominas temporarily suspended work contracts for 80 employees and terminated 175 contractors. 

On September 5, Alunorte signed two agreements representing a milestone to resume normal operations. The agreements include a technical Term of Adjusted Conduct (TAC) signed between Alunorte . Alumina do Norte do Brasil S.A, Norsk Hydro do Brasil Ltda, the Ministério Público Federal (MPF), the Pará State Ministério Público (MPPA), the State Government of Pará, represented by the Secretariat of State of Environment and Sustainability (SEMAS). In addition, a social Term of Commitment (TC) was signed between Alunorte - Alumina do Norte do Brasil S.A and the State Government of Pará. The TAC regulates certain technical improvements, audits, studies and payments for food cards to families living in the hydrographic area of the Murucupi River, while the TC addresses additional efforts and investments related to the social development of communities in Barcarena.

Investor contacts
Stian Hasle
+47 97736022
[email protected]

Olena Lepikhina
+47 96853035
[email protected]

Media contact
Erik Bynhildsbakken
+47 41751271
[email protected]

Cautionary note
Certain statements included in this announcement contain forward-looking information, including, without limitation, information relating to (a) forecasts, projections and estimates, (b) statements of Hydro management concerning plans, objectives and strategies, such as planned expansions, investments, divestments, curtailments or other projects, © targeted production volumes and costs, capacities or rates, start-up costs, cost reductions and profit objectives, (d) various expectations about future developments in Hydro’s markets, particularly prices, supply and demand and competition, (e) results of operations, (f) margins, (g) growth rates, (h) risk management, and (i) qualified statements such as “expected”, “scheduled”, “targeted”, “planned”, “proposed”, “intended” or similar.

Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, these forward-looking statements are based on a number of assumptions and forecasts that, by their nature, involve risk and uncertainty. Various factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected in a forward-looking statement or affect the extent to which a particular projection is realized. Factors that could cause these differences include, but are not limited to: our continued ability to reposition and restructure our upstream and downstream businesses; changes in availability and cost of energy and raw materials; global supply and demand for aluminium and aluminium products; world economic growth, including rates of inflation and industrial production; changes in the relative value of currencies and the value of commodity contracts; trends in Hydro’s key markets and competition; and legislative, regulatory and political factors.

No assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct.  Hydro disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act

Nyheten er levert av GlobeNewswire.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20181006.GlobeNewswire.GNW1000101637-en


#57

Hva tenker folk videre her nå? Fremdeles risky å velge inngang til tross for melding om bruk av pressfilteret? Fremdeles 50% kapasitet men klar forbedring fra WC :thinking:


#58

Aksjen falt fra 49 til 43 pga nedgang fra 50% til 0% kapasitet, når de nå går opp 50%, så antar jeg den bevegelsen blir reversert.


#59

Ja, det er jo det man ville trodd.


#60

Dette var jo en særdeles positiv utvikling. Myndighetene ser viktigheten av dette anlegget for å bevare arbeidsplasser. Vi snakker tross alt om flere tusen ansatte her (Alunorte, Paragominas og Albras). Når det først skrus opp igjen (fra 0 til 50 %) så er det grunn til å tro at dette vil løses på en fornuftig måte med tid og stunder slik at vi igjen kan øke til full produksjon. De som har solgt aksjen ned fra cirka 50 til lavere 40 tall blir antageligvis nødt til å løpe etter igjen til uken. Skal vi gjette på at aksjen starter over 47 på mandags morgen? Bør nok snuse på 50 tallet igjen snart om det ikke skulle komme noen flere skjær i sjøen de nærmeste ukene.