Hvorfor finner man ikke sioff i aksjonærlistene?
Fordi selskapet er registrert på Cayman Islands
What’s new: Update and hike TP to NOK 34/sh (28), Buy Rec. maintained
Our take: As the upcycle unfolds, SIOFF should reprice its high-specs vessels at 45% higher rates in ‘25. NIBD/EBITDA dips below 2x in ‘24 and refinancing is within reach in our view.
• Red hot subsea market – FSest. rates to reach USD 80k/d in ’25e
• Refinancing next year to unlock dividend capacity – FSest. FCF yield of 25% in ‘25
• Attractive on asset creation and multiples – ‘24/’25 EV/EBITDA at 4.9x/3.2x
We continue to see upside potential for SIOFF, as the offshore supply market remains tight, and vessels roll off legacy contracts. SIOFFs recent term contract additions add to earnings visibility and AHTS spot rates are holding at decent levels – making us upbeat on the earnings trajectory. The upcoming refinancing represents an important equity trigger in our view and looks manageable as NIBD/EBITDA dips below FSest. 2x in 2024. Hence, with 25% FSest. FCF yield in 2025 dividends should shortly follow, we believe. We adjust our asset values assumptions by avg. 27% to reflect expected positive market developments and raise our TP to NOK 34/sh (NOK 28/sh 13.06.2023). Buy Reiterated.
Strong operational leverage supporting the refinancing in 2024
SIOFF sits with strong short-term cash flow visibility as c. 70% of PSV/CSV days are fixed in 2024. Its AHTS on the other hand, represents a wild card as they are mostly trading in the profitable yet volatile spot market. We project significant upside once the subsea vessels roll into new contracts from 2025 (FSest avg. rates USD 72k/d). As such, EBITDA is estimated to increase to USD 163m/200m in 2024 and 2025 vs USD 159m in ‘23. Operations are projected to generate cash of USD 127m/139m in ’23-’24, which after FSest yearly capex of c. USD30m (avg.), should reduce gearing quickly. The refinancing of the FSest USD 150m balloon payment due YE24 is manageable in our view and eased covenants should allow for dividends in 2025.
Valuation – Buy, TP to NOK 34/sh (NOK 28/sh 13.06.2023)
After adjusting steel value assumptions to reflect a buoyant market outlook and NIBD YE23 slightly revised, we find a TP of NOK 34/sh (28) equal to NAV. SIOFF trades at USD 20m/29m per AHTS/PSV compared to USD 24m/34m at TP. The subsea segment is valued at avg. USD 101m/unit vs implied USD 86m. On multiples SIOFF trades at 4.9x 2024 and 3.2x 2025 EV/EBITDA vs 6.1x and 4.1x at our TP. With P/NAV of 0.76x SIOFF screens attractive compared to peers trading at avg. 0.83x.
Fearnley
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Gapfill på gang her?
Hun laster jo opp evig
Pareto anslår ca 70kusd/dag- helt greit, hadde vel håpet på 8-900k/dag
1.25mill/dag pr skip om jeg leser det rett, backlog på ca 7mrd på bare disse to. Det er massivt. Sioff bør stige på denne.
Mulig jeg leser feil, men blir det ikke 1,214 mill/2skip= 607k/dag?
7,284mrd for begge fartøy over 6år.
365 x 6årx2skip= er forlengelsen = 4380 fartøydøgn
- 3år til startx365- dvs 1 år for dene ene og 2 år for den andre= 1095 fartøydøgn
5475 fartøydøgn og kontraktsverdi 7270 mill
1,32mill/fartøydøgn
Er det noe feil her?