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Stillfront Group (SF)

03/06-2019 18:03:14: (SF.ST) Stillfront Group förvärvar KIXEYE, Inc. och säkerställer ny finansiering

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https://www.avanza.se/placera/telegram/2019/06/04/stillfront-svd-borsplus-rekommenderar-kop.html

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https://www.avanza.se/placera/redaktionellt/2019/06/12/rabatten-i-stillfrontemission-8-4-procent.html

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18/06-2019 15:45:00: (SF.ST) Stillfront emitterar 500 miljoner kronor i 5-åriga seniora icke-säkerställda obligationer

24/06-2019 18:30:00: (SF.ST) Stillfront Group fullföljer förvärvet av KIXEYE, Inc.

05/07-2019 09:03:54: (SF.ST) Stillfront Group: MAU växte med 39% YoY

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Newsflash fra Pareto

Q2 2019 should be fine

Q2 player statistics of flat MAU and DAU down 7% q/q indicated downside to our Q2 revenue estimate. However, after speaking with management a lower UAC than in Q1 was confirmed while an increased number of content updates as well as a stronger focus on live ops seem to have had positive effects on monetisation of the most loyal players, which is why we feel confident about our Q2 revenue estimate while raising our adjusted EBITDA forecast slightly due to the lower UAC. The final financing package, equity and debt, for the KIXEYE acquisition is already in place and with the M&A gun reloaded Stillfront is ready to strike again. We reiterate our Buy rating and target price of SEK 295 with the recent share price weakness offering a good entry point. The Q2 report is due out 15 August.

We believe the market views Q2 as weaker than it will turn out to be

Q2 player statistics show MAU and DAU growth of 39% and 29% y/y with MAU flat and DAU down 7% q/q. The marketing opportunityhasn´t been as good as in Q1, which is why Stillfront has been holding back somewhat on UAC but there are also seasonality effects at play which are negatively affecting the statistics. We also believe Strike of Nations and Siege: World War 2 might have entered the refinement phase with lower UAC, which is why MAU/DAU should drop while paying users are more stable. However, despite theMAU/DAU growth an increased focus on live ops, more frequent content updates and platform extensions will have supportedmonetisation of the most loyal users in Q2, and these effects are not easy to capture by just reviewing charts. We have raised our Q2adjusted EBITDA forecast due to the lower UAC while the reported numbers will be burdened by EO costs related to the KIXEYE acquisition.

We reiterate our Buy rating and target price of SEK 295

We value Stillfront using a 2019E adjusted EV/EBIT multiple of 14x, including KIXEYE, in line with global gaming peer multiples.

Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):

Lars-Ola Hellstrom, +46 8 402 5277, [email protected]

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Ganske sykt at man kunne kjøpt denne under 210 for en uke siden og solgt på 240++ i dag. Jeg hadde jo et par kjøpsposter som jeg følte var lavt og Trump sørget for at de gikk inn. Var litt sur siden jeg kunne kjøpt ca 15kr rimeligere men ble jo en grei trade alikevel.

EDIT: blir jo ikke overrasket om vi ser 250kr++ i dag

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KOm de med rapport idag, eller annen grunn til at de går?

Rapporten kommer 15/8 :slight_smile:

Snakk om en 15%. Jeg kjøpte også litt pga fallet, men på litt under 220. Kun liten post. Kan være den vanlige svenske pumpen før rapport vi ser. Faller ofte tilbake etter rapport er min erfaring for pdx, sf, thq.

EDIT

Redeye kom med oppdatering på mandag:
Current valuation implies roughly a 13x multiple of our 2019 EBIT projections. We regard that as attractive for a company with Stillfront’s organic growth, strong prospects, and track-record of value-adding acquisitions with more to come. Our Base-case valaution stand at 300 SEK per share.

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Eneste ulempen med SF er at de etterhvert har en del gjeld. Blir interessant å se hvordan de finansierer de neste oppkjøpene.

Q2 was strong

Stillfront just released a stronger than expected Q2 2019 report with a beat on both revenue 7-7% and EBITDA 11-15%versus our and consensus estimates. Net revenue grew 46% as all three active product areas, Empire, Big and Core, delivered a third quarter of sequential growth with Core products being exceptionally strong due to Babil Games Nida Hard 3 that now has the prospects to become the single largest game in the portfolio. Total UAC was in line with our estimate, lower for Goodgame while higher for Stillfront Core as Nida Hard 3 has been scaled. Deposits for EMPIRE was flat y/y, Big Farm grew 18% y/y and Stillfront Core grew 133% y/y. As earlier reported Q2 player statistics showed thatMAU was flat and DAU down 7% q/q and the reports tells us that paying users was down 7% q/q. Still revenue grew sequentially due to very strong monetization which grew 15% q/q to a new ATH supported by live-ops, content updatesand successful in game events. The adj EBIT margin of 32% is a new ATH for the group and as of Q2 Stillfront has also reached its long-term EBIT target of >30% LTM – will the bar be raised? At net profit level the results were in line with our estimates due to EO cost related to the KIXEYE acquisition non-recurring financial cost in connection to the bridge facility. In total, a strong report with better than expected revenue and EBITDA which will trigger upward revisions to our and consensus estimates. At EBITDA level we were 6% ahead of consensus for 2019E, and we expect to raise EBITDAestimates by ~5% why consensus is likely to come up even more. Shares likely to trade ahead of the market today, +5%. Buy TP SEK 295.)

Key takeaway

  • Revenue came in at SEK 480m versus our estimates of SEK 447m and consensus of SEK 447m, while deposits (revenues excluding IFRS revenue recognition adjustments and other game related revenues), in the second quarter amounted to SE451m.
  • EBITDA and came in at SEK 197m versus our estimate of SEK 178m and consensus of SEK 171m,
  • UAC of SEK 99m was in line with our modelling of SEK 100m, lower in Goodgame but higher in Stillffront Core as it has been scaling Nida Harb 3.
  • EO cost of SEK 26m where higher than the SEK 15m we had pencilled in whereof SEK -20m are transaction costs related to the acquisition of Kixeye and SEK -5m to the revaluation of conditional contingent liabilities
  • Financial net of SEK -23 was higher than we expected due to nonrecurring costs amounting to -6 MSEK consisting of bridge facility and legal costs related to the bond issuance. Fx effects amounted to SEK -5m.
  • Webcast at 10:00 CET – Link
  • Teleconference: Dial-in number SE: +46 8 505 583 65,UK: +44 33 330 092 71, US: +1 83 352 683 47

Deviation table

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Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):

Lars-Ola Hellstrom, +46 8 402 5277, [email protected]

Full rapport hos Pareto.

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ned på en såpass bra rapport? Det får man si.

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