Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Ultimovacs (ULTI) Fundamentale forhold

Ultimo på stødig kurs. Og jeg bare elsker den totale transparensen, fremfor å moderere informasjonen slik en del andre selskaper driver med!

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Det er nesten litt vanskelig å ikke koble hasteendringene i styret opp mot at dette er skjøvet litt på. Kan selvsagt være helt tilfeldig, og man får legge det til grunn.

At de rigger styret med mer M&A og pipeline-valuation ekspertise er positivt lell og sier litt om hva de forventer fremover.

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Langsiktig kjøper jeg kun selskaper som leverer over tid og har en ærlig og åpen kommunikasjon hvis ting går litt over tiden. Så langt har Ultimovacs levert på disse punktene, og det synes jeg vi småaksjonærer burde sette pris på.

Hvis noen lurer på immunterapiterminologi så inkluderer faktisk Ultimovacs en glossary i sin rapport.

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I presentasjonen er det jeg finner definitivt mest spennede og nytt, hva de skriver om TET. Det er helt tydelig at man rigger dette som en plattformteknologi som de ser for seg å utlisensiere. Og det er som tidligere kommunisert ikke bare innen kreft:

“Pending confirmation of the safety of the TET technology and results from ongoing and further pre-clinical development of the TET platform, the ambition is to identify new cancer vaccine candidates to move into clinical development.”

“Ultimovacs is in the process of developing an improved manufacturing process for vaccines based on the TET core molecule which will enable new vaccine candidates to move into clinical development“

Med gjennomføring på OUS og ferdig godkjenning på plass, så kan vi vel gå ut i fra at dette er EudraCTnr 2020-000918-15 (at dette altså ikke er undisclosed phase II)

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Alt som forventet på stell iht. rapporten!
Inkludering av nye pasienter er lite påvirket er koronapandemien (selv Finansavisa har det som overskrift idag), og her rapporterer man også antallet som er innrullert kvartalsvis.

Det virker som at PCIB, hvor jeg også er investert, har en del å lære av Ultimovacs når det kommer til inkludering av pasienter, og ikke minst kommunikasjon med sine aksjonærer markedet generelt.

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Det kan jo ha noe med det å gjøre, men tror selv at begrunnelsen selskapet kom med i september er en god nok forklaring

“Ultimovacs, the sponsor and the Big Pharma partner have been making improvements to the trial protocol and due to the challenges of operating in the current pandemic environment, the agreement is still in the process of finalization”

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Helt enig i at PCIB kan ta frem denne rapporten som mal.

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Ja, det er litt av en coincidence…
Selskapet har som uttalt mål å utlisensiere UV1 for å få økonomiske muskler til å drive UV1 til godkjenning i så mange indikasjoner som mulig

  1. BMS gir gratis sjekkpunkthemmere for å se om UV1 kan gi de effekt i mesoteliom.
  2. De publiserer veldig lovende top line 1 års-data i melanom
  3. De arbeider med enda til partnerstudie hvor en big pharma skal gi studien gratis medisin
  4. Plutselig blir signaturen utsatt ett kvartal
  5. Selskapsutvikler uten medisinkompetanse ber om å få tre ut av styret
  6. De henter inn TO nye mennesker til styret, en ekspert på M&A, og en ekspert på pipeline-valuering

To big pharma over snittet interessert i vaksinen - bevist av at de vil være med på studier - og vaksinen har rimelig sikkert effekt sammen med sjekkpunkthemmere.

Hmmmm… Det er så bull at jeg må gi det liten sannsynlighet for å ikke virke dust. Men det hadde vært sinnsykt moro om de fikk skviset ut noe bra nå allerede.

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Hører på presentasjonen nå. CEO omtaler disse big pharma-samarbeidspartnerne som “potential partners in the future” - Tydelig hvem som sitter på gullkalven imo.

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@fornybar: “Can you tell about the cooperation with National Cancer Institute in the US and a prophylactic cancer vaccine. Is this cooperation active, and what could come out of it?”

CMO Jens Bjørnheim: “So in the US the Institute of Health a few years back they started a program called the PREVENT program. The ambition with that program is to develop prophylactic vaccines against cancer. So vaccines that should work to prevent cancer from occurring. A few years back the PREVENT-program contacted Ultimovacs and asked us if it was ok to put our UV1 peptides on their lists. The reason why as you know, telemorase is a very common feature in cancer, 80-90% of cancer patients will have expression of telemorase. So it is a very relevant target if you want to hit a large group of potential cancer patients. The NHI through the PREVENT-program studied the peptides preclinical. Another part that needs to be in place to have the full understanding of safety profile etc. of our peptides is to have clinical results. So we are awaiting further clinical results. We are discussing with the group continously. As of now we are waiting for more clinical information for a possible next step in the program.”

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Ultimovacs’ Q3 operating loss was smaller than we had expected, but this was partly due to delays in starting up new trials, which we see as a timing issue rather than a real change in spending. The company announced that it now has 12 patients recruited in the INITIUM trial, and 6 in the NIPU trial (up from 3 and 4 respectively after Q2). The new collaboration is still unknown, and it stated that it would inform the market of the details in Q4. We maintain our BUY and NOK85 target price.

Operating loss lower than forecast . The company reported an operating loss of cNOK31m in Q3 – less than the cNOK46m we had expected. However, some of the lower spend was due to lower activity in clinical development and the new phase II trial (still undisclosed) being delayed. It still guides for operating costs to increase from Q4. At the end of Q3, it had cNOK453m in cash on the balance sheet.

Update on recruitment speed . The company announced that the phase II trial INITIUM in malignant metastatic melanoma had recruited 12 patients (three after Q2). The phase II trial NIPU in mesothelioma had recruited 6 patients (four after Q2). As a reminder, the INITIUM trial is a phase II trial in 154 patients with a 1:1 randomisation between Ultimovacs vaccine UV1 plus the CPI combination nivolumab and ipilimumab compared to only the CPI combination. The NIPU trial is a phase II trial in 118 patients with a 1:1 randomisation between the same treatments as in the INITIUM trial.

New collaboration and phase II trial set to be revealed in Q4 . The company is still in discussions with its new collaborators for a third phase II trial in a new indication with a big pharma company and a European research group to test the vaccine in combination with SoC compared to SoC. We do not know any details about this deal apart from the fact that it is in an indication not previously evaluated and in combination with other drugs than those previously tested in phase I and II. News regarding this trial should come in Q4, and the trial should start to recruit patients in H1 2021.

TENDU trial of the TET project set to start in Q1 2021 . This will be a small dose-finding trial of 9–12 patients focussing on safety and tolerability, but will also give some valuable information on the TET technology. The trial will be conducted in prostate cancer patients.

BUY and NOK85 target price reiterated . We have made minor changes to our model on lower operating costs in Q3e, but also slightly lowered the spending in early 2021e.

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Intervju med CEO Carlos de Sousa

image

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Ref. de to analysene som finnes der ute, så vil jeg gjenta at å finregne indikasjon for indikasjon på dette selskapet ikke gir mening. Det er ikke bare nøkternt, men helt feil.

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Enig.

Det koker ned til

  1. Øker UV1 pluss etablerte immunterapier overlevelse hos pasienter?
  2. Vil de klare å gjøre seg synlige hos potensielle partnere?
  3. Er klinikere villige til å bruke UV1?
  4. Er big pharma villige til å betale for dette?

Har man høy conviction for at svaret er JA på alle de spørsmålene, så blir jo kursmålene helt vanvittige, og den velkjente 10x 'eren blir antakelig for puslete.

Ninjaedit:
Og så kommer TET og UV2 fra geniene i Uppsala…

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En liten teaser der? :wink:

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Plattformteaser?

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Tisdag 17 november

09.30 Webbsändningen börjar. Klicka här för att komma till webbsändningen.
09.35 Acarix
09.55 Clinical Laserthermia Systems
10.15 SenzaGen
10.35 Ziccum

– paus –

11.05 Panel #1: Investor insights: Top fund managers’ perspective & strategic outlook for 2021

  • Mattias Häggblom – Portfolio Manager, Swedbank Robur Medica
  • Mikael Svensson – Portfolio Manager Healthcare Select, C Worldwide Asset Management
  • Claus Johansen – Senior Portfolio Manager, Danske Bank Asset Management

11.30 ExpreS2ion Biotechnologies
11.50 Pila Pharma
12.10 Idogen
12.30 Lipum

– paus –

13.05 Abliva
13.25 Kancera
13.45 Immunicum
14.05 Moberg Pharma
14.25 Ultimovacs

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Dekning på gang? Vil bidra til flere øyne på selskapet i særlig Sverige.

Er ikke lenge siden de hadde disse to (betalte) artiklene:

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Her kan man se Ultimovacs på tidspunktet angitt over

Litt enklere å lese enn den andre:

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“UV1 has a very competitive profile as it can be used in a large number of cancers, it is an “off-the-shelf” product and it is easy to administer as an intra-dermal injection. The potential market is extremely large.”

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