Track record of 5th pg
Fails:
Kings of soccer
Dawn of the dragons II
Success:
Ronaldo
Hugo 2
Success (not developed themselves):
Casino games
Future will show us:
Doodle jump (outsourced)
Vikings (outsourced)
Nyah houston casino (outsourced)
Tintin game
Even if you do not believe in their development capacities: three of the upcomming games are outsourced.
Det spørs vel hva en definerer som suksess… som aksjonær bør det være at selskapet går i pluss på sine produkter. Ikke et eneste ett av selskapets spill har levert overskudd til nå!
As far as I have seen in the annual reports; we do not have numbers on individual projects. The cancelation of certain games (KoS and dawn I and II) shows that these games were not profitable. Their development costs were (probably) way higher than the revenues made; even putting them in the store was way to expensive. The losses on these games were so high that they outran the revenue of all the other games combined (hence the bad results of the last years). The Ronaldo game has been downloaded +10.000.000 on android alone (and has been converted to html5 recently). hugo troll race 2 has been downloaded+5.000.000. Both have been referred to as a major source of income in some of the annual reports. Therefore I consider them to be a success.
I agree with you, cagey 2, that 5 PG has had some serious issues with some games (huge delays for vikings and doodle jump and failled launch of KoS/DoD II), but if they didn’t had had some small successes, they would have been bankrupt by now.
But I am convinced that 5 PG has learned some lessons:
They have cut the costs of their company massively (half of the costs). They also stopped development of DoD II in time. DoD II was to expensive to finish and not enough players had transfered from DoD I. Halting development of DoD II was the best thing they could do, instead of making futile and expensive attempts to make it profitable (as they did with KoS).
Of the next four games, three are developed in other companies.
We can only hope that these companies have decent teams to develop Vikings, doodle jump and Nyah Huston casino.
The Tintin game is developed by the Voss team in Berlin. The games look fun and progress seems fine now.
The previously failed or delayed games were developed in the UK (KoS, vikings and doodle jump) and the US (DoD II) where all the studios were closed down. So the teams working on the current games have NOTHING to do with the issues and fails earlier on… the only thing that remained the same is the guidance from the HQ in Denmark. I am convinced they have learned some lessons, but if they **** up the upcomming games, the HQ will probably need to rethink its role.
Det store spørsmålet er er jo hvorfor Hugo kjøpte 5th planet games i sep/okt 2018 for så å legge ned studioet i nov 2019. For meg så ser det ut som de har en ledelse som ikke helt vet hva de holder på med .
Nei… om de ikke hadde gjennomført en haug av emisjoner pluss dødsspirallån… DA hadde de vært konk. Jeg trodde de ville ha lagt inn årene for lengst nå, men de klamrer seg fortsatt til det hengende snøre. På en måte imponerende det. Men mobilbransjen er tøff, de har ikke en sjangse mot de større aktørene. Her må en ha store budsjetter eller være original og nyskapende. 5PG er hverken eller…
@nofun , it was crazy and stupid to buy 5th planet I agree. i am convinced that people may learn lessons; even the hard way. We have in Europe a very bad view and stigma on people making wrong choices and failing. We should have more of a US approach; failing is learning. For me taking and admitting the loss of DoD II and cutting costs was a sign that Nielsen and his team finally learned stuff.
@cagey2 , you need a large budget, but a well known name may help cutting advertisement costs. Anyway you are free to not believe in 5 PG and being very sceptical about it ( and I agree your arguments make sense), the same as I am free of believing in the potential of the company. Of the record I am a long, average of approx. 0,57.
But I think we both look forward to see what will happen the next days as there is again a massive amount of trade going on. The upward pressure seems to be very high. Good luck to all the longs!
I don’t think they had a choice 
They still had/have the Formue Nord finance…they had a choice…of making a stupid choice to further take up the expensive loans from Formue Nord finance 
And talking about Formue Nord: they still have a big short position (https://shortnordic.com/detaljer_selskap.php?company=5TH%20PLANET%20GAMES&land=norway) but they may cover by converting part of their loan.
Satan det er fart i fivepg for tida. skulle nesten tro ASP, Storvestre og Bagger’n kjøper stort samtidig med denne helt ville kursøkninga. Er det vikings soft release som frister mon tro? Kan jo også være short-skvis i tillegg til noen sjefs-tradere.
Noe å kjøpe på Mandag? Hvor høyt kan den gå til uka?
Aksjen er allerede grisedyr.
Så høyt du vil 
Tja. Tradingmessig kan denne gå høyt. Mobilspill i coronatid og vikings og tintin. Husk funcom og lmo. Begynner noen å kjøre denne aksjen i forkant av kjent trigger kan alt skje.
Selskapets veldig lave mcap ift potensiale med en hit gjør at denne lett kan argumentere hausses mye høyere.
Toadman og det fiaskospillet er et nyere eksempel på det samme som med funcom og lmo.ekstrem opgang ibegge to før spill kom ut og floppet stort.
Var i snakk med en potensiell partner i jobbsammenheng her som drev/eide bettingselskap og der forklarte de blant annet at det vær en ekstremt stor økning av trafikk på casino relatert betting. Nå vet jeg ikke hvor mye penger 5th drar inn i utgangspunktet på denne delen, men vil ihvertfall kunne gi noe ekstra inntekter i en veldig tynnslitt pengekasse. Har aldri klart å finne ut hvor mye inntekter disse bringer, men vil ihvertfall komme godt med tanke på situasjonen 5th planet er i.
Når man hørte på CEO i toadman snakke om at de var bedre og mer effektive enn alle andre å lage spill så var det jo mange som ble gira. Og de fleste ble skuffet når de fikk se spillet. Føler det har vært noe av det samme i Hugo/5thPG . De har hatt tilgang til gode IPer som folk har hatt forventninger til men ikke klart å levere noe som genererer nok cash.
Ja helt enig, men som du gjorde med toadman selge før release kan man tjene bra på alikevel. Jeg gikk ut av toadman ved første mulighet etter e3 og gikk glipp av enda bedre gevinst.
Det er fullt mulig å investere i aksjer som man tror skal til null og skulle dette selskapet faktisk få til en hit er oppsiden stor.
Ja jeg eier jo mini poster i både 5th planet games og Star Vault
Star vault kjøpte jeg ikke i mitt miniraid tidligere i uken. 12 spillaksjer. Star vault og gold town games kjøpte jeg ikke. Det ble for ekstremt. Spreaden i star vault er slik at du fort er 10 prosent hvis man ikke passer på.
Fivepg svakhet er også at for å få en hit trengs ofte en god del cash til markedsføring. Eller et veldig bra spill som går viralt. For å sette det på spissen.
I always try to estimate some numbers about the current situation-I know I will be open to a lot of critique, but I think this excercise may be useful:
First these numbers are very difficult to estimate but anyways, it is an attempt and sorry for any mistakes or wrong assumptions. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Current market value (at 0,93 NOK a share) is approx 51.000.000 NOK or €4.500.000
The strategic choice to make tintin inhouse is a good one. Match 3 has an immense popularity and generates as a genre the most revenue (https://gameworldobserver.com/2019/08/22/match-3-ios/ - 20% of US market/candy crush generates 1/4th of it).
Candy crush is the reference in this genre. It generates a revenue of approx $350-400 million each quarter (https://sensortower.com/blog/candy-crush-revenue-q1-2019). I assume that 5 PG has a 50-50 split of the revenue with Moulenisart -owners of the Tintin character. So if tintin only generates 1%! of candy crush’s revenue each quarter, 5 PG has earned its current marketvalue in revenue after 2-3 quarters (each quarter I expect 5 PG to earn somewhere between 1 and 2 million in revenue). I think 1% of the candy crush share is a little bit conservative, regarding the well known character of Tintin. In an ideal scenario they will be able to earn a higher percentage. The early version seems to work decently and the character is popular. If Voss’ team in Berlin can make this game work, this share will become a rocket.
Vikings most similar competitor -the game of thrones conquest game- earns approx $60 million each quarter (https://www.cnet.com/news/that-game-of-thrones-conquest-mobile-game-has-made-over-200m/). If we, take a revenue share of 25% for 5 PG (50% for owner of the vikings rights, 25% for quantum shake (company that finishes the game) and 25% for 5 PG, this can become again a very lucrative game. My conservative measure - if the game is kind of decent- will be a revenue that equals 10% of the game of thrones conquest game; $6 million each quarter ($2 million for 5 PG each quarter). Why do I do think this game may achieve 10%? Viking has a similar popularity as game of thrones and a solid fanbase. Even if it is not that good, people will play it anyways with the upcoming season.
Doodle jump is the most difficult to assess; Doodle jump, is now developed by a brazilean team (so I do expect a share of 25% for five PG). The original doodle jump game had to be purchased and dated from the early days of mobile game. The new one will have microtransactions. It is however difficult to assess the popularity of this game in the future. Regarding the revenues I do hope for $200.000 - $500.000 in revenue for 5 pg a quarter.
If things turn out okish (as described above), I thus expect $4.200.000-$4.500.000 (which is similar to its current market value) in revenue each quarter for 5 PG when the three games are launched. If the games aren’t good at all, this will be a disaster and I do not know if 5 PG may recover from this. However, Vikings and Tintin are very strong brands and have the potential to make this share to skyrocket. And I did not even take the current games (casino, Hugo 2 and Ronaldo) and Nyah Houston casino game into account, who will continue to add to the results of 5 PG at a minimum of costs.
Knowing that the current market value is €4.500.000, the share is incredibly low valued by the market. But I do understand that the earlier fails of DoD II and KoS should be taken into account. 5 PG has a bad track record. Nevertheless, I expect them to grow to 2,5 NOK before the launches; taking into account the massive potential revenues. After the launches a further increase does not seem impossible to me; expecting somewhere in between 6 and 10 NOK after the holidays, depending on the results of the games. Would be nice if people would provide their expectations (before and after the launches)
Har lest meg opp litt. Virker spennende. Håper den holder seg under 1,- til jeg får kjøpt.