Pimco forbereder seg på hard landing | DN
2 Likes
Industriaktiviteten i USA bremser med det meste på tre år
16:55
Truls Lier
Industriindeksen for USA fra Institute of Supply Management (ISM) kom inn på 46 poeng i juni, viser ferske tall.
Det er under analytikernes forventinger og det laveste nivået for indeksen siden mai 2020, skriver Bloomberg. Det er også den åttende måneden på rad at indeksen tyder på synkende aktivitet i amerikansk industri.
Om indeksen ligger over 50 tyder det på vekst. Tall under 50 er derimot et tegn på tilbakegang, akkurat som for PMI-tallene.
3 Likes
Minner om denne fra i fjor. Jeg ble i alle fall mer opplyst 
3 Likes
Tysk eksport: – Utsiktene er dystre | Finansavisen
– Utsiktene for andre halvår er dystre
Sjefsøkonom i VP bank, Thomas Gitzel, sier utsiktene for fremtiden vekker bekymring.
«Utsiktene for andre halvår er dystre. Bruttonasjonalproduktet vil krympe for hele 2023 sammenlignet med året før,» advarer Gitzel til Boersen Zeitung.
Sjefsøkonom i ING, Carsten Brzeski, er enig med Gitzel. «I tiden fremover vil den vedvarende nedgangen i eksportordrer, forventet svekkelse i USAs økonomi, høy inflasjon og stor usikkerhet etterlate tydelige spor i de tyske eksportene,» forklarer Brzeski.
Just when you thought it was safe to hope interest rates might soon peak, along comes more bad news. It looks likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon has returned, according to both the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Its appearance usually results in, or exacerbates, floods, heatwaves, water scarcity and wildfires, especially in the southern hemisphere. The damage these inflict on crops and infrastructure is inflationary, putting pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy. If climate change makes such events stronger and more frequent, supply shocks will become embedded.
Heh.
El Niño usually brings more flooding in the south of the US, the south of South America, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while severe heatwaves and droughts often strike eastern Australia, Indonesia, south Asia and Central America.
Some researchers think El Niño could drive 2023 to become the hottest recorded year, though the greater pulse of heat will appear in 2024.
Varm vinter i vente?
But that’s not the only effects expected: Combined with climate change, El Niño this year could dent US economic growth, potentially impacting everything from food prices to the winter clothing sales.
“There are these major negative economic growth consequences where there’s extreme weather,” said Christopher Callahan, a Ph.D. candidate at Dartmouth and lead author on a study in the journal Science attributing $5.7 trillion in global income losses to the 1997-98 El Niño and $4.1 trillion in losses to the 1982-1983 El Niño.
“Så viktig liksom” ?
Countries can feel the negative affects of these climate patterns years after they end, the study found.
“The effects of these events last a long time, and they are far more costly than we used to think,” Christopher Callahan, a Ph.D. candidate at Dartmouth and lead author of the study, said.
Higher food prices are a common theme across El Niño events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report.
The effects go beyond farms. Simeon Siegel, an analyst analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said unexpected swings in weather can negatively impact the retail sector.
“Although no retailer ever wants to blame the weather because it comes off as an excuse, weather is absolutely critical for most retail, particularly apparel and seasonal goods,” he said.
“Not only must the retailers or brands forecast what consumers will want, they also need to predict what nature is going to throw at them. Obviously, for companies that sell coats, grills, outdoor furniture, sweaters, or shorts, the weather can be the difference between needing to buy that coat or not,” he added.
The travel and tourism sector may also feel the sting of El Niño. For a 2021 study in the scientific journal Atmosphere, researchers analyzed the number of visits to 48 natural attractions in the United States to test willingness to travel during El Niño events. The research concluded that these weather events led to a “significant decrease” in tourist visits.
El Niño conditions also tend to amplify hurricane-like storms in the Pacific Ocean, according to Dupigny-Giroux.
In fact, according to the Deutsche Bank report, “The Pacific hurricane season saw 16 hurricanes in each of 2014 and 2015, the joint highest number on record.”
A repeat could prove to be a headache for airline companies, which are already struggling with weather-related cancellations and disruptions this summer. Inclement weather is “by far, the largest cause of flight delays,” according to the US Federal Aviation Administration.
Krisemaksimering, finne ett alternativ å skylde på (ikke Biden eller demokratene) hvis økonomien får problemer, og potensielt - hvis det blir ille (som man vel ikke vet per i dag), potensielt svært store internasjonale konsekvenser. Neste år? Ting tar tid?
2 Likes
Inntrykket mitt for Europa er at det har vært en ganske så midt-på-treet sommer hittil? Her i Norge startet det veldig tørt, men det har gitt seg nå. Fin veksling mellom regn og sol. 
2 Likes
Timeglasset er snudd og det renner ikke lenger sand inn, men tømmes isteden ut
1 Like
Opp 8,5 bps. Bevegelsene ga hint forrige uke, chartlesere klarer å se det samme nå.
Fortsatt 100% avhengig av i morgen og fredag, det er enormt viktig data.
2 Likes
Hintet kom torsdag 
Få se den bryte ut 6mnd range typ 4% så er jeg bull yields
Har vi en ETF for 10-åringen?
xten ?
1 Like
Hang seng -3%
Nikkei -1,8%
2 Likes
Kan vel være dette som sender Hang Seng ned, tror dette ikke var helt som forventet.
" Caixin/S&P’s composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion."
Service sektoren skulle jo holde seg sterk, så dette er ikke bra:
“The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) eased to 53.9 in June from 57.1 in May, the lowest reading since January when COVID-19 swept through the country after authorities ditched anti-virus curbs. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction in activity.”
Edit: Og tydelig under hva som var forventet:
“The Caixin China services purchasing managers’ index declined to 53.9 from 57.1 in May, Caixin and S&P Global said in a statement Wednesday, the weakest since January and well below the median forecast of 56.2 among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Any reading over 50 indicates an expansion from the prior month, while a number below that suggests contraction.”
1 Like
Takk for tips, men den virker å være for illikvid 
1 Like
Setter endel forventninger til juni-tallene som kommer på fredag (?).
1 Like
Det finnes flere likvide etf’er for 7-10år (e.g. IEF), fordi det er en vanlig indeks. Jeg vil tro markedet for 10 år og bare 10 år, ikke er stort fordi det da gir mer mening med enkeltobligasjoner for mye av volumet.
1 Like
7-10 eller 10-15, om du vil ha 10 kan du jo kjøre en blanding av disse. En etf må ha en range ellers må de rullere hele tiden for å holde seg på 10år
Det jeg trenger er en likvid ETF som ligner mest mulig på chartet til 10-åringen 
Hva betyr “7-10”?