Bare å huske på at for høye oljepriser til slutt vil gi utslag på økonomien og børsen.
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Jeg er enig med deg at det er meningsløst å spå noe som helst basert på en så lang tidsperiode (om noen konklusjon skal trekkes så er det vel at trenden er opp, over tid). Likevel er det en del som bruker cycle analysis på den måten for å time langsiktige topper / bunner.
Det kommer mye data i morgen fra US som jeg tenker vil avgjøre videre retning denne måneden.
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US futter over i rødt.
Ja stort fall over hele linjen i dag!
Det er ikke noe man ser hver dag.
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En korreksjon er nok i “tjømda”. Dvs nært forestående. 
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Oh crap
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Hovedindeksen på OSE har gått nesten straka vegen fra 630p til 1130 p i løpet av pandemien(etter fallet i mars). Det er 500p. Ingen bør bli overrasket av en korreksjon på 5-10%.
Jeg aner en smule ironi? 
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Futtene faller videre:
| DJIA F | 34,416 | -174 | -0.50% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P F | 4,180.50 | -25.70 | -0.61% | ||
| NASDAQ F | 13,557.50 | -116.25 | -0.85% |
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Er nok snart tid for å avvikle helikopterpenger:
Ola Magnussen Rydje
Foreløpige sysselsettingstall viser 978 000 nye jobber i mai
En rapport fra ADP viser at antall sysselsatte i privat sektor i USA steg med 978 000 i mai. Det var ventet at økningen ville være på 650 000. Det melder CNBC.
Økningen er den største siden juni 2020, da tallet var 4,35 millioner som følge av at landet kom ut av koronanedstengning.
Bear!
Det var ikke ironisk engang 
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., March 16, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Investors are increasingly exposed to American stocks through funds that track indexes, such as the S&P 500 Index. With the occasional hiccup, this strategy has served them well since the market’s recovery in early 2009. At current valuation levels, however, the most popular benchmark index is priced to deliver negative returns in future years. To believe otherwise is to suggest that “this time is different”, which, as every investor knows, are four of the most dangerous words in the English language.
Many tools have been developed to predict the returns of the American stock market. The cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio created by Yale University economist Robert Shiller is best known. Historically, Shiller’s CAPE has proved a reliable predictor of returns over the medium term. Right now, the CAPE is more expensive than at the market peak in 1929, and close to its level at the height of the dot-com bubble. For the CAPE to return to its historic average, U.S. stocks would have to decline by nearly 50%.
Whereas Shiller’s CAPE is based on profitability, another measure, known as Tobin’s Q, values the stock market relative to the replacement cost of corporate assets. This valuation tool has long been championed by veteran City of London economist Andrew Smithers. Tobin’s Q closely tracks the Shiller model and likewise suggests that American stocks would have to fall by half before the market reached fair value.
A valuation model developed by GMO, the Boston-based money manager (and my former employer), is based on the mean reversion of equity valuations and profits. Given that the U.S. market’s price-to-earnings ratio is currently around 3 times above its historic average, stocks would have to fall by 8% a year for seven years to reach fair value.
Other measures, such as the total market capitalisation of stocks relative to GDP – Warren Buffett’s favourite gauge – are also flashing red. The trouble is that markets can remain overpriced for what seems like an eternity. Smithers points out that valuation peaks for Tobin’s Q occur only once every 20 years. Shiller’s CAPE first came to public notice in 1996, when he and a colleague made a presentation to the Federal Reserve, prompting Chairman Alan Greenspan’s famous utterance about “irrational exuberance”. That didn’t stop stocks from doubling again before their peak in early 2000. (Shiller’s CAPE is currently a third higher than at the date of Greenspan’s warning.)
The fact that interest rates are at historically low levels has brought traditional valuation measurements into question. Even Shiller has got cold feet. Last November, the Nobel laureate suggested that “when interest rates fall, the discount rate used in these (valuation) models decreases and the price of the equity assets should appreciate… So, interest rate cuts by central banks may be used to justify higher equity prices and CAPE ratios.”
Shiller has developed a new model which compares the earnings yield on stocks, cyclically adjusted, to the real yield on U.S. Treasuries. At the beginning of May, the awkwardly named “excess CAPE yield” stood at 2.72%, suggesting that equities were not much seriously overpriced relative to bonds. Although the ECY model has been close to zero at previous market peaks, it’s hard to put much faith in this measure – any more than in the so-called “Fed model”, which it closely resembles.
For a start, the model compares apples and oranges. Stocks are claims on real assets, while bonds are claims on nominal assets. Their respective yields don’t always move in the same direction. Besides, when valuing stocks and other investments it is wrong to use the current market rate of interest. According to John Burr Williams, the pioneering economist who in the 1930s popularised the discounted cash flow approach to valuation, the correct discount rate is that which “is expected to be found in the open market in the years to come.”
The trouble is that we don’t know the course of future interest rates. We do know, however, that U.S. bond yields have been falling for nearly four decades and that last year they reached their lowest level in history. We also know that the Fed has used every tool in its power to suppress interest rates, from setting the Fed funds rate at zero, providing guidance on future policy moves (as Chairman Jay Powell memorably put it last June, the Fed was “not thinking about raising rates, we’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”) to acquiring trillions of dollars of fixed-income securities.
To argue that current ultra-low interest rates justify high stock prices is also to claim that bond yields have reached a permanently low trough. However, if the Fed’s unprecedented actions herald the return of inflation, as seems plausible, then rising bond yields would remove the single, albeit tenuous, reason for buying stocks at their current valuations. When inflation took off in the early 1970s, Shiller’s excess CAPE yield was around its current level. Nevertheless, U.S. stocks delivered negative returns over the subsequent decade. Given that the stock market is more highly valued today, an even greater bloodbath can be expected.
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Bull eller Bear? Ser jo ut som dette markedet kan vare i en evighet, ref artikkelen
The trouble is that markets can remain overpriced for what seems like an eternity. Smithers points out that valuation peaks for Tobin’s Q occur only once every 20 years. Shiller’s CAPE first came to public notice in 1996, when he and a colleague made a presentation to the Federal Reserve, prompting Chairman Alan Greenspan’s famous utterance about “irrational exuberance”. That didn’t stop stocks from doubling again before their peak in early 2000. (Shiller’s CAPE is currently a third higher than at the date of Greenspan’s warning.)
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Har funnet et pent long-volatility case som betaler utbytte OG er lavt priset. Ref. i dag, alle memestonks dupper, mens VIRT stiger - og bak kulissene tjener de gryn på slik volatilitet
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“Given that the stock market is more highly valued today, an even greater bloodbath can be expected.”
Just saying…
Veldig nervepirrende før arbeidsmarkedstallene kommer 
Investors are carefully parsing the economic data to gauge if inflation could prove sticky enough to force the Fed’s hand on tapering.
Last month, much-weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls numbers knocked back those expectations, weakening Treasury yields and the dollar.
This month, economists forecast private payrolls likely increased by 600,000 jobs in May, after rising only 218,000 in April.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 1.633%, after advancing nearly four full basis points overnight.
The dollar index held Thursday’s 0.7% rally, its biggest since April 2020, to hover around 90.54.
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Er gode tall bra eller dårlig for aksjemarkedet?
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