Disclaimer; I think CrayoNano is in a process of being acquired.
However, I also heard the statement from Peil in the last QA, and find it very strange, because it goes against all sayings about the industry needs. Maybe it is bad communications, or maybe they are trying to actually “say” that volume production of nanowires has been successfully performed, but they rather increase their development leap even further away from the competition by riding the current CrayoLED gen1 when its on a roll and obviously “good enough” for customers. It will obviously be a point of no return and effort to set the cut-off for when they integrate the nanowires instead into the CrayoLED package.
With that being said, the company has indeed informed about the plans, process and strategy around the nanowires development. I think the reason for unclear communications is due to many processes, lots of information over long time and little time for compacting information into the updates along the way, its about prioritization from Q to Q. It is not easy to hold the full timeline details consistent on hand.
Remember 2021 was en extraordinary year with lock downs and supply-chain challenges, so the move of starting Taiwan branch for access to resources/expertise, bypassing travel restrictions for ramping up dev, in addition to the process of testing the supply-chain, building sales funnel and company brand by release gen1 on licensed tech - was a clever move - facilitating two processes at once during peak pandemic.
Digging into and constructing a timeline of the information:
03.08.2017
(Norway pioneers new UV LEDs)
One of the earliest mentions of possible earliest window of successful scale-up production of technology, hence August 2020.
This state-of-the-art equipment will “enable us to demonstrate and scale up the technology to industrial production levels. If we succeed with the technology, this will be a billion-dollar industry,” says Weman.
Asked how soon this can happen, Weman replies, “If we manage to do it in three years, that will be very fast.”
20.04.2020
(https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/teknologi/2020/04/20/7516529/rune-rinnan-og-crayonano-vil-bekjempe-coronaviruset-med-ultrafiolett-lys)
The first mentioning of a specific product release date was made in Norwegian newspaper Finansavisen by Rune Rinnan:
CrayoNano does not have ordinary sales revenue yet, but expects to have chips ready for sale by the end of June 2021.
What kind of product is not mentioned specifically, and neither reasons behind a specific type of release.
21.09.2020
Rune Rinnan states in the same newspaper:
The company uses the world’s thinnest and strongest material, graphene, with nanowires of various semiconductors so that it can be used in electrical components.
We will deliver the technology to the first customers already in December this year, says Rune Rinnan.
Hence, the tech will be delivered to first customers December 2020, but it is not stating if this is closed secret prototype testing of actual nanowires for selected customers, or if this is a specific other branded product to be released.
22.12.2020
(https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/teknologi/2020/12/22/7600371/crayonano-fikk-25-millioner-fra-eus-horizon-program)
Jo Uthus states:
Our ambition is to go public when we have a product on the market, and we will be on the market with a product next year. The plan is to go public when we have launched the product, says Uthus.
Hence, a type of product to be on the market next year, 2021.
Going into the company business presentations
22.12.2020
(https://crayonano.com/news/december-2020-operational-update)
As part of the downtime in the R&D supply-chain, CrayoNano has experienced significant reduction of availability and access to equipment and resources. The company has therefore not taped-out the product demonstrator of our UV-C LED chip to strategic customers in December 2020 as previously planned
It was a delay because of covid.
08.04.2021
(https://crayonano.com/file/07Apr2021-CrayoNano-Q1-Update.pdf)
Already mentioned in April 2021:
- States the nanowire tech is achieved
- Undisclosed R&D partner (this is possible SemiLEDs later confirmed in 2022)
- LED foundry engaged (prototypes H2 2021)
09.2021
Covid introduced delays and thats when they outlines the strategy of two parallel processes (market entry prorduct + nanowire dev in Taiwan).
They need to develop scalable supply-chain anyways and needs the customers to engage, and informs for the first time about launching a first product based on standard industry tech.
- Informs about actually been operating in Taiwan for 1 year already, since Sep 2020.
- The “Acceleration Strategy” of nanowires/graphene in Taiwan with undisclosed R&D partner (this is possible SemiLEDs later confirmed in 2022).
- Plan of launching the first CrayoLED H-series based on standard industry tech to “initiate business and supply-chain”.
11.02.2022
(https://crayonano.com/news/crayonano-notccnano-signs-industrialization-and-development-agreement-with-semileds-nasdaqleds-for-nanowire-uv-c-led-chips)
The R&D partnership with SemiLEDs is official.
February 2022
(https://crayonano.com/file/IR_Q4_company_update_20220210.pdf)
More information about the purpose of the first CrayoLED H-series:
-
Commercial vehicle (to build supply-chain and sales-funnel)
-
Technical vehicle (to ramp disruptive nanowire product into high volume production in 2023 and 2024)
- CryoLED gen 1 is "CrayoNano design, specifications and supply-chain partners combined with industry standard chip architecture enables CrayoLED platform"
- CrayoLED H-series is platform for integrating CrayoNano core IP
- Nanowires: Qualified products released to customers in 2023.
2022 - whole year
Most of the year used for setting up the Taiwan Fab2 lab.
26.10.22
(https://crayonano.com/file/CrayoNano-Q322-results-presentation-221010.pdf)
CrayoLED H-series officially launched in October 2022, which is perfectly inline with the update in Feb 2022 and even the update in Sep 2021.
Jan 2023
Fab2 Taiwan fully operational
April 2023 - Company Presentation
(https://crayonano.com/file/CrayoNano-Company-Presentation-April-2023.pdf)
First time seeing the technology roadmap chart.
Last time mentioning the nanowire products was Feb 2022, stating:
Qualified products released to customers in 2023
The tech roadmap presented fits pretty well with earlier information, indicating Gen2 just a couple of months additionally into 2024".
The chart indicating both Gen2 and Gen3 currently “in-design”.
April 2023 → “Commercial/brand/order focus”
Awaiting info/launch of CrayoLED with nanowires early next year 2024 (according to update Feb 2022 and April 2023).