Hehe, Ikke uenig. Men det hjelper lite om du blir båret ut iløpet av uken 
Edit: Minner om at Einar Aas sitt veddemål traff, men innen den tid var han personlig konkurs.
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Passet litt dårlig med gliset hans på det bildet i denne sammenhengen… 
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There have been dramatic changes in the oil market over the past few weeks. The coronavirus outbreak is accelerating outside China, and we estimate global oil demand will be down 0.8mb/d YOY in H1 2020. At the same time, Russia and Saudi Arabia walked away from the OPEC+ meeting on Friday without agreeing on deeper and/or extended production cuts. The consequence is that there will be no restrictions to OPEC+ oil production when the current cut agreement expires at the end of March, and we are likely heading into an oil price war. On Saturday, Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling prices to record-low levels, a clear signal that the gloves are off and that the kingdom is hunting for market share. The combination of coronavirus-related oil demand weakness and expected increase in OPEC+ production leaves our oil market balance with record-high oversupply in Q2e. We have consequently cut our oil price estimates to 43 USD/bbl (64 USD/bbl) for 2020 and 56 USD/bbl (68 USD/bbl) for 2021. However, the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, and we highlight that Brent oil prices sub-USD50/bbl are unsustainable in the medium term in our view, as they would trigger structural declining non-OPEC production.
OPEC+ meeting shifted from supply cuts to war for market share. It all started last Thursday when OPEC proposed a production cut of 1.5mb/d, contingent upon support from Russia. However, Russia indicated limited appetite for a 1.5mb/d cut, and in effect OPEC presented Russia with an ultimatum to back the deep production cut or face an oil price collapse. At the OPEC+ meeting on Friday none of the parties was in the mood for negotiations, despite bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and they were unable to agree on anything. The dramatic consequence is that the existing OPEC+ agreement for cut production by 1.7mb/d expires at end-March, with no supply restrictions for any OPEC+ countries thereafter. Basically OPEC+ has moved from supply curbs to a price war strategy in a hunt for increased market share, and this is happening at a time when global oil demand is hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak.
First indication of price war: Saudi Arabia slashing its oil prices. On Saturday, just a day after the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Aramco launched its Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for April lifting. Arab Medium price differentials were slashed by 7.0 USD/bbl from the March level. Arab Medium to Asia is now at a 4.05 USD/bbl discount to Dubai, while at a discount of 12.6 USD/bbl to Brent into North West Europe, both being record-low price differentials. Hence, Saudi Arabia’s OSPs clearly signal that the gloves are off and the market should ready itself for an oil price war.
Demand impact from coronavirus outbreak as-yet unknown. No one knows just how intense the global demand hit from coronavirus will be, or the duration of this event. Chinese activity is finally showing signs of a gradual pick-up, while confirmed coronavirus cases outside China seem to be following an exponential trend line. We estimate global oil demand to be down 0.8mb/d YOY in H1 2020, the first negative growth rate since the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Our base case is that global oil demand will normalise post August 2020, which brings our 2020 oil demand growth estimate to 0.23mb/d YOY.
Moving into a massively oversupplied oil market. On our estimates we are moving into a massively oversupplied oil market with a OPEC+ production ramp-up ahead of us and negative demand effects from the coronavirus outbreak. We estimate an oversupplied oil market balance of 3.4mb/d for Q2, which would be worst oversupply in more than 30 years. A key concern is that we might end up testing the capacity of global oil inventories, which would lead to a very distressed oil market.
Low oil prices in 2020 would fix the oil market balance for 2021. With our oil price estimate of 40 USD/bbl on average for Q2–Q4 2020, we believe the oil price will fix the oil market balance moving into 2021. Such a low oil price would kill short cyclical supply and stimulate oil demand when the negative effects of the coronavirus are behind us. We estimate a non-OPEC production decline of 0.9mb/d YOY in 2021 and oil demand growth of 1.8mb/d YOY, pushing the call-on-OPEC estimate above our OPEC production estimate. As always, the best cure for low oil prices and an oversupplied market is low oil prices. And we would like to highlight that we see Brent oil prices below 50 USD/bbl as non-sunsustainable in the medium term as it would trigger structural declining non-OPEC production
Saudi Arabia and Russia could change their minds, but unlikely. Russia and Saudi Arabia might re-start negotiations if oil prices reach levels that inflict too much pain. However, with the recently failed OPEC+ meeting and Saudi Arabia already slashing its OSPs, this is not our base case. But short-term, this is probably the only thing that could save the oil market.
Oil price estimates revised sharply lower for 2020. We have lowered our oil price estimate to 43 USD/bbl for 2020 (64 USD/bbl), and with a trough in Q2 of 35 USD/bbl (63 USD/bbl). We acknowledge it is almost impossible to call a trough to oil prices given the expected oversupply in the months ahead. We have cut our 2021 oil price to 56 USD/bbl (68 USD/bbl), while our 2022 estimate is unchanged at 70 USD/bbl. Given the significant uncertainty related to coronavirus and now the OPEC+ oil price war, we would like to highlight that both the oil market fundamentals and oil price estimates come with an uncomfortably high degree of uncertainty.
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Jeg synes utregningen om 0.8 mb/day reduksjon i demand er amatørmessig. Det er et middel over H1 og om man tenker det vil bedres mot slutten av H1 så vil det dra ned oversupply. Men likevel, jeg mener de bommer med minst 100 %.
@Christian
Sett opp et regneark. På radene setter du flytrafikk, Cruize næring, Containerskip, Industri, energi… Identifiser hvor mye disse næringene bruker per dag. Forsøk deretter å identifiser hvor mye konsumet for de enkelte er redusert. Jeg klarte ikke putte et tall på alle rekkene. Men fikk til for noen. Flytrafikken alene vil for eksempel bruke 3 mb/day mindre ved 50% stengte flyavganger. Ved 18% redusert trafikk, vil dette utgjøre 1 mb/day. Men så kan du se på de andre næringene. Overskudd i markedet de neste 2 mnd vil være himmelhøyt. Og det kan faktisk bli værre.
Jeg tror videre at Saudi og Russland muligens gjør dette med vilje nå. De vil konkurssjokke den allerede dårlige stilte skiferoljesektoren i US Denne gangen vil de klare det de ikke klarte i 2014 til 2015. Banker i US vil muligens velte. Gloves are off.
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Publisert for 10 min siden. Rakettforsker dette…
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Jeg må få meg jobb som oljeanalytiker.
Det eneste de gjør er å være Captain Hindsight.
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Sjefen for IEA er live fra Paris på CNBC. Han er ikke særlig lyst på dette. Oljeprisen can be very very low due to corona. Mulig bedring i andre halvdel, men for tidlig å si.
Videre så er han bekymret for shale produsenter og olje avhengige land som ikke har differensiert sin økonomi.
Han hørtes ikke særlig positiv for å si det mildt
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Jeg ser på denne nå. Babyen til Corona Svanen kan bli et ildrødt Shaleoil producer konkursskred som lett kan rive banker over ende. En annen mulig baby til Corona svanen er forsikringskonkurser og tilhørende konkurser av mange aktører i transport/reise sektor.
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Virker som markedet begynner å prise tro håp og kjærlighet inn i olje. Øker mor 37$. Kan ikke se at det kan skyldes annet enn at folk vedder på at en avtale skal på plass likevel. Har sett utallige eksempler på mennesker kan nekte å ta inn over seg facts. Skjer det igjen?
Jeg sitter med en Superliten BULL OBX X3 til i morgen. Kanskje det kan bli en liten pullback. Det er snarere mitt behov for spenning som drev denne posisjonen enn tro på gevinst.
En slags rekyl ligger vel i kortene
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Ingen rekyl i morgen
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Vanskelig å se hvem som trenger aksjer nå… Bortsett fra de få som begynner å lukke noen av Bear posisjonene sine.
Er Russland sur på USA?
Tja…
Etterhvert kan vi forventa reduksjon i oljeproduksjonen fra Nordsjøen?
Har ein først fått virus på plattform er det ikkje så enkelt å få det bort.
Har det skjedd noe relevant man ikke har fått med seg her på jobb? Mtp. 12% økning igjen? 
Nei, Saudi Aramco melder at de øker produksjonen fra 1.april. Så hvorfor den går så mye opp er en gåte…
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Litt av et casino om dagen, ja nærmest hva man putter penger på.
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Økte mindre enn ventet?
Nei, det er vel som de har estimert tidligere.
Produksjons kapasiteten til Saudi blir begrensningen. Altså de klarer ikke å få opp mer olje. Derfor 12,5