Focus presenterar 12 nya projekt: https://forums.focus-home.com/topic/37406/focus-home-interactive-reveals-12-new-partnerships-at-what-s-next-2019
World War Z ser ut att bli en oväntad bästsäljare för Focus Home som har globala konsolrättigheter, digital: https://cdn.focus-home.com/admin/investor/website/desktop/_FILES/Communiques/20181212-PR-GAME-Saber_Focus_WWZ-EN.pdf
1:a i de flesta större länder:
Betygen är blandade mycket pga tekniska problem som är på väg att lösas: https://opencritic.com/game/7513/world-war-z
De har fått bra betalt dor epic exclusive men leser at folk er skuffet over spillet?
Focus har bara digitala rättigheter till konsol så ingenting på PC där Saber är ensam utgivare. Ja många blandade åsikter men rätt bra userscore även med en del tekniska problem:
I think Focus Home Interactive(FHI) is a video game publisher that many investors might not understand or have overlooked. The customers are aware of Focus Home though, as they have 55,000 followers on twitter, 145,000 subs on youtube, and a very impressive track record with recent games including: World War Z, Vampyr, A Plague Tale: Innocence, The Surge, MudRunner
Insurgency: Sandstorm, GreedFall, Farming Simulator 15+17+19 and many more
These successes have resulted in high growth, and a lot of investments into future projects.
Looking at the last 5 years they’ve had CAGR of above 20% in both top and bottom line.
I don’t see the growth stopping anytime soon, and right now they are trading at a P/E of around 10. They have practically zero debt, but of course have commitments to pay development costs for the current projects. Speaking of current projects, these are the upcoming games for THIS FY(fiscal year) (01.04.2020-31.03.2021):
- Insurgency sandstorm for consoles
- Mudrunner for mobile
- Project with ENODO - city architect
- Project with Lightbulb Crew - Othercide
- Project with Sumo Digital
- Games workshop IP with Rogue Factor - Necromunda
- Games workshop IP with Gasket Games
- Games workshop IP with Streum On
- Project with Limestone
- 2 other unrevealed projects
Add these projects to the two already confirmed successes this FY and it gets really interesting:
Snowrunner released in May and sold 1m copies in the first 3 weeks, It’s a confirmed success, and due to the commitment of ongoing development and support of the title, the sales of this game will probably continue to be high for a long time.
It took Vampyr 10 months to sell 1m copies, and I think a conservative estimate will be that this title is twice as lucrative. Focus earned approximately 23 mEur from Vampyr during the FY that Vampyr was released. So I think that a plausible estimate could be that Snowrunner contributes ~46mEur this year.
Hardspace: Shipbreaker, became a confirmed success this week, with It directly entering 1st place on steam top sellers, easily outperforming Embracer Groups “Desperadoes 3”, that was released the same day. I think Hardspace: Shipbreaker will sell very well during Early Access(EA) (which are planned to last approximately 1 year). This could be a sleeper hit that keeps selling for a long time. When it goes out of EA and is released on consoles too, we could see a great boost in sales.
Given this years upcoming and already released games, I think we can be quite certain that Focus Home Interactive will meet or more likely exceed their financial target for this year. Remember that right now the back catalogue generates approximately 60 mEUR per year.
So what about the future? Here are the biggest projects in the pipeline
- Project with Dontnod - maybe Vampyr 2?
(This new co-production is one of the most ambitious projects in the history of both companies.) It would seem extremely pessimistic to think that this project will not exceed Vampyr in sales.
- Project with Asobo - confirmed to be “A Plague Tale 2”. Sequels to high quality, award winning games like this tend to increase in sales. -Unless the quality deteriorates. I don’t think Asobo will make a crappy game, and I’m convinced that this franchise could expand a lot with this sequel. And maybe further with a 3rd or a 4th installment
- AAA-project with Saber and games workshop IP. I have a good feeling about this project. Saber was acquired for 525mUSD by Embracer, and I do not think the price would have been this high if their upcoming games looked mediocre. It’s also the first time I’ve heard FHI mention one of their projects as “AAA-game”
- Project with Deck13 on a new CO-owned IP
They of course have a lot more going on that is not revealed yet, and I think the growth of FHI will continue for the foreseeable future.
So what P/E value should a well run company- with zero debt, guidance of more than 30% growth, a dividend of 2.5% and an active share buyback program, be traded at?
Right now P/E = 10.5 To me this looks like a very very cheap growth stock.
I could see sales & profits 2x over the next few years. And if the P/E value at some point enters the 20 range like their peers, there should be a 400% upside from this stock price.
What do you guys thing, and why is nobody talking about FHI in here?
Full disclaimer: this stock is in my portfolio, and I do not in any way recommend anyone buying this stock!
Vampyr 2, would be a no-brainer. (in my view at least)
There is even a TV show adaption on the way.
So, if this project is not “Vampyr 2” then Dontnod and FHI must be very convinced that this ‘other’ project has even bigger potential. This assumption combined with the phrase they use themselves: “This new co-production is one of the most ambitious projects in the history of both companies.”
Makes me think that this project is well thought out. But of course there is always the possibility of a flop. But when you look at Dontnod and FHI’s recent track record I’m not very concerned that the project will be crappy.
BTW, here is the last Presentation.
and annual results will be released in 6 days.
The reason it’s not very talked about here is probably more due to the fact that it’s hard to get hold of shares. Probably also the reason why dontnod, 11bit, sumo, CDPR and a whole lot of other companies aren’t discussed that much.
But i agree with you, a very good publisher in the AA segment. They have proven over the last few years that they are very good at picking games to invest in.
If they have been developing games themselfs i believe they would have been valued alot higher, or maybe french investors are more into bagels and wine, and not very interested in gaming.
Based on their guiding for the next few years the valuation today is almost laughable. 2021/22 with min 150MEUR revenue should land them around 150*17%= 25,5MEUR in operating profit, or a P/E of about 6/7.
When you write that it’s hard to get hold of shares, do you mean that the trading volume is low, or that it is not tradable on Nordnet for instance?
Flera nyheter igårkväll, köp av studion Deck13!
This was a great report, and finally the “first” acquisition! we should be able to look forward to more acquisitions ahead.
Ny storägare köpte 35 % av bolaget för 40€/aktie: https://cdn.focus-home.com/admin/investor/website/desktop/_FILES/Communiques/PR_EN_FHI_Change%20of%20shareholder%2008.07.2020.pdf