Har jo selv tenkt at de globale driverne nå må være håpløse for Kitron, men NOTE driver altså med det samme og leverer supertall?
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Og med tanke på at kitron holdt guidingen lik etter q2 og med rekord høy ordrebok så kan det fort bli et enormt resultat, tok et bet for litt siden for å holde ut året, kan fort bli gode prosent og utbytter
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Yep. Så vidt jeg husker så har Note hatt bedre marginer og noe høyere vekst enn Kitron de siste årene. Hvis man ser på Q3 20 så omsatte Kitron for 1054mill ( opp 43% fra q3 19 ) mens Note hadde 433msek. Kitron sitt Q3 20 ble vel boostet en del av medisin så forventer ikke at de har hatt samme vekst som Note fra 2020 til 2021(men blir ikke lei meg om de har det 
). Etter dagens oppgang har forresten Note en mcap på 4600mill mens Kitron har 3500mill. Må si jeg angrer litt på at jeg solgte de få Note aksjene jeg hadde i september 2020 på 65kr
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Kanskje ikke helt det resultatet vi håpte på, men veldig gode fremtids utsikter da
Mange hadde nok håpet på en bedre rapport ja, siden bransjekollega Note overbeviste her om dagen
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Må nok forberede oss på fall, men da gode kjøpsmuligheter fremover:))
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Litt som jeg fryktet, men heftig backlogg da👌 skal nok iallefall ned å teste 16.90 igjen, kanskje også under det. Kan bli en fin inngang for den langsiktige.
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Jeg pleier først å ta en titt på oppdateringen av Outlook i Kitron. De pleier å treffe rimelig bra. Det ser vel egentlig ut som problemene i Q3 fortsetter i Q4. Spørsmålet er om dette blir ryddet opp til 2022Q1. Litt rart dette ikke har påvirket Note. Hjalp vel neppe at Kitron byttet COO midt i Q3.
Dette betyr vel basically at de guider 3800 MNOK revenue og 6,95% marginer for en EBIT på 264,1 MNOK. Gir henholdsvis 7% og 14% årlig vekst i omsetning og EBIT vs 2019-tallene.
Peter snakket litt om dette i Q&A delen av presentasjonen. Han sa vel noe sånt som at produksjonen i Norge og Sverige er mindre påvirket pga de gjør mer “complete builds” og at kundene her har vært flinkere med forecasting/sikring av komponenter. Størst påvirkning har de sett i f.eks litauen/polen hvor det er mye rene pcba builds.
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Hva tenker du om bytte av COO her? Jeg tenker jo at dette er COO-en sitt bord og at i overgangen mellom gammel og ny, så kan det ha påvirket ting negativt. Mao, det har vært mer fokus på hand-over enn å se langt nok framover.
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Jeg hadde et veldig godt inntrykk av tidligere COO og med tanke på det gode opsjonsprogrammet til KIT har han nok fått bra betalt for å flytte på seg 
Den nye COOen har jo også lang erfaring fra bransjen og Peter har jobbet med han tidligere så er nok ingen dårlig mann det heller. Som du sier er det uansett ikke utenkelig at det har vært mye fokus på hand-over i kvartalet.
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Det har også vært vanskeligere tider enn tidligere. Kitron bygget opp lager for å håndtere situasjonen mens det fortsatt var tilgjengelig kapasitet i verdensmarkedet. Problemet nå er at alle blir skvist, både på råvarer, produksjon av deler, frakt, i alle bransjer ser det ut som.
Og jeg ville være litt forsiktig med å tenke at dette “nok løser seg” i løpet av kort tid, da det er en del ting som kan tyde på at problemene fort vedvarer gjennom hele 2022.
Murphy, who noted his firm is fabless and works with contract manufacturers on its designs, said “that’s not going to kick in until 2023 and 2024 — so there’s this painful period.”
That is a more pessimistic view than some of Murphy’s chip industry peers, who have recently said they expect the shortage to wane next year as new factories open.
“We’ve always gone through cycles of ups and downs, where demand has exceeded supply or vice versa,” AMD CEO Lisa Su said Monday at the Code Conference in Beverly Hills, California. “This time, it’s different.”
Su said that while she expects the first half of 2022 to be “likely tight,” the second half will be less severe as manufacturing capacity opens.
“It might take, you know, 18 to 24 months to put on a new plant, and in some cases even longer than that,” Su said. “These investments were started perhaps a year ago.”
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Noen dager gammel.
Supply chain issues take their toll in 3Q, but long-term goals stay
Kitron delivered weak 3Q figures affected by supply chain issues. This resulted in a slightly lower 2021 guidance, but long-term goals are reiterated. Taking the long-term view, we keep our positive stance towards the stock and see only slight reductions in near-term estimates, keeping the long-term projections intact.
3Q figures below expectations on component shortages
Kitron released its 3Q21 report this morning. The figures were below expectations as the supply chain issues took their toll. Revenues of NOK 831m came in about 9% below our NOK 914m projection. EBIT margin was at 6.0% (6.5% estimated) and EBIT of NOK 50m fell short of our NOK 59m estimate.
[image]
Strong demand, but component supply issues are impacting revenues
Demand for Kitron’s products is very strong and order backlog at the end of 3Q was NOK 2.6bn vs NOK 2.3bn a quarter ago. The situation is serious, but actions are being taken to account for the supply chain issues:
- 90% of expected output for 2022 is already on order with suppliers (less than half last year the same time).
- Some customers securing critical parts for full years 2022-23
- Alternative parts approved and/or redesigned.
- Kitron focuses on market sectors less affected by the current issues.
Long-term outlook unchanged, while 2021 goals reduced
Kitron reiterated its long-term growth targets – NOK 6.0bn in revenues and 8.0% EBIT margin by 2025. However, due to the supply chain issues, 2021 targets were reduced. Revenues from NOK 3.9-4.2bn range to NOK 3.7-3.9bn, midpoint down 6%. EBIT margin from 6.8-7.4% range to 6.8-7.1%, midpoint being down by 0.15%p.
Positive stance reiterated as we take a long-term view
All in all, our estimates for 2021 and 2022 to a lesser extent are likely to be adjusted down, but long-term expectations should not change much. We believe that the supply chain issues will wane when going into 2022 and Kitron will be back on a very strong and profitable growth path towards its long-term growth goals. Therefore, we stay positive on the stock.
Analyst
Tomas Skeivys, CFA
+47 55 55 91 35
tomas.skeivys@norne.no
KIT_2021-10-21_IC.pdf (405,2 KB)
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Mer fra Norne
KIT_2021-10-25.pdf (544,6 KB)
Strong demand means growth, as supply chain issues ease into 2022
Kitron delivered weak 3Q figures affected by supply chain issues. This resulted in a slightly lower 2021 guidance, but long-term goals are reiterated. Taking the long-term view, we keep our positive stance towards the stock at an unchanged TP of NOK 24/sh.
3Q figures below expectations on component shortages
Kitron released its 3Q21 report last Thursday. The figures were below expectations as the supply chain issues took their toll. Revenues of NOK 831m came in about 9% below our NOK 914m projection. EBIT margin was at 6.0% (6.5% estimated) and EBIT of NOK 50m fell short of our NOK 59m estimate. The company estimates that as much as NOK 233m more revenue could have been earned if not for the difficult situation with suppliers.
[image]
Very strong demand will yield growth once supply chain issues wane
Demand for Kitron’s products is very strong and order backlog at the end of 3Q was record-high at NOK 2.6bn (NOK 2.3bn a quarter ago). The supply chain situation is serious, but actions are taken to alleviate the problem:
- 90% of expected output for 2022 is already on order with suppliers (less than half last year at the same time);
- Some customers securing critical parts for full years 2022-23;
- Alternative parts approved and/or redesigned;
- Kitron focuses on market sectors less affected by the current issues.
Long-term outlook unchanged, while 2021 goals reduced
Kitron reiterated its long-term growth targets – NOK 6.0bn in revenues and 8.0% EBIT margin by 2025. However, due to the supply chain issues, 2021 targets were reduced: revenues from NOK 3.9-4.2bn range to NOK 3.7-3.9bn (midpoint being down 6%); EBIT margin from 6.8-7.4% range to 6.8-7.1%.
Positive stance reiterated on long-term quality growth story
All in all, the adjustments to our estimates were minor and we keep our positive stance on Kitron share at an unchanged TP of NOK 24/sh. We agree with the management that supply chain problems are likely at their peak now and there should be less pressure going into 2022. At the same time, the measures initiated to counter the issues should also work well releasing lots of revenues when pent-up demand is met. We also like a solid 4-6% dividend yield as well as good upside to TP and multiples are not stretched especially looking beyond 2021. It is also worth highlighting that value-accretive M&A will probably happen, adding additional flavour to the case.
Analyst
Tomas Skeivys, CFA
+47 55 55 91 35
tomas.skeivys@norne.no
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