Pareto kom ut med denne analysen kl 17:55 den 15/2, hvor de løfter til kjøp fra hold og øker kursmål til 35 fra 27. Ser KIT-kurs i 45 i 2025:
Demand surge & estimate uplift – up to buy
Following the massive order intake beat & upbeat outlook comments, we raise estimates across the board. While we lift 2023 EBIT by 12%, our revised estimates (& company guidance) could very well turn out to be too conservative with R12 demand now at NOK ~9bn. We had clearly underestimated the demand momentum ahead of the report and we see potential for KIT becoming a NOK >45 share in ‘25E on earnings growth alone. Recommendation changed back to BUY, TP upped to NOK 35 p.sh (27).
P&L figures in-line, massive order intake beat & uplift in guidance remarks
KIT reported Q4 EBIT of NOK 16m, up 216% y/y and right in-line with expectations & the pre-quarter guidance. Revenue also in line at NOK 1,813m (+91% y/y & +31% y/y organic). P&L figures were, however, secondary today, as it was the order intake of NOK 3.1bn (50% ahead PAS) and R12 demand that stole the spotlight. The order intake brought BtB up to 1.7x and lifted the backlog to NOK 6,098m. With this beat, the company now expects 2023 to come in at the high-end of guidance (original guidance provided only months ago at the CMD), signalling strong confidence for 2023 with the year barely having started.
EBIT’23E up 12% - guidance appears conservative given R12 demand
Driven by higher-than-anticipated order-intake and outlook remarks, we raise 2023E EBIT by 12%, finding ourselves ahead the guidance at NOK 559m (vs. 450-550m guided). Current 2023 demand indications clearly support higher estimates, with R12 coverage to our ‘23E revenue estimate now at 123%. Still, supply chain issues and high utilization appears to be the key constraints. The supply chain is however expected to ease ahead, and Kitron is investing heavily in additional capacity to meet demand, leaving upside to 2023 guidance & estimates. On our revised estimates, we now forecast an EBIT CAGR 2022-25E of 15%, leaving the company well within the trajectory needed to reach its 2027E ambitions.
Recommendation changed to BUY – TP up to NOK 35 p.sh (27)
We find today’s share price reaction warranted, with estimates up across the board. Earnings growth is set to carry on and we see potential for KIT becoming a NOK >45 p.sh stock in ‘25E driven by earnings growth alone. Multiples have, however, come up, with the name now at ~16-14x 23/24E EPS. But with estimate risk on the upside, and current R12 figures implying an annual EBIT closer to NOK ~700m on full capacity, multiples could drop as low as ~11-12x EPS only by meeting current demand. We were clearly in the wrong downgrading to HOLD ahead of the figures, and we change our recommendation to BUY on the back of significant estimate changes and a strong outlook. TP upped to NOK 35 p.sh (27), implying ~15x ‘24E EPS.
skjønner at vi ekspandere men forventer markedet så mye. Samme reise som Note på gang?
Jeg har temmelig overflatisk kunnskap om selskapet og det spesifikke segmentet de opererer i, men fra sidelinjen finner jeg det jo underlig at Kitron opplever all-time high etterspørsel (Q4) mens elektronikk opplever sviktende salg globalt innen mange segmenter. Forklaringen er tilsynelatende ikke våpen, den nye vinen innen bærekraft. Eller kan det være at forsvarsindustien også driver med ting som kan føres under “Connectivity” eller “Electrification”?