SP1:
Major Intellilift contract leads to estimate revisions
We have a Buy recommendation and lift our TP to NOK18/sh on Nekkar
We lift our EBIT estimate on Nekkar by 12% on 2027e following the Intellilift automation contract that Nekkar received yesterday. The company received a contract
for automation of 11 rigs on a 10-year fixed SaaS agreement with an undisclosed client. Based on our estimates and assumptions, we find a total deal value of
NOK 675m in revenue over the 10-year period (IFRS) and NOK 345m on a proportional basis (51% ownership). We had previously anticipated 7 rigs on contract by
YE26, but the new contract increases this number to 8. By YE27e, we model 12 rigs on contract based on the slated rollout plan.
• Major Intellilift contract signed: In connection with the 4Q25 figures, Nekkar announced a new Intellilift contract with what we believe could be Transocean,
based on them being the confirmed customer for four of the active rigs. With their recent acquisition proposal for Valaris, we see clear potential for additional
contracts. As software revenue carries structurally higher margins than project-based deliveries, this drives a meaningful uplift to our medium-term margin
profile. We estimate an EBITDA margin of 20% for the installation fee and 50% for SaaS revenue to Intellilift, reflecting high gross margins and software content,
on the latter, leading to a blended EBITDA margin of 31% and 40% in 26e and 27e, up from 25% in 2025. While we previously modelled rigs quite in line with the
contract, our assumptions were skewed towards one-off installation revenues. With the new 10-year fixed SaaS contract, we now explicitly model higher
recurring software revenue, which materially improves earnings visibility and margin quality versus our previous estimates.
• The market for Syncrolift remains soft: As stated in our preview, our view remains that once tendering activity accelerates, Syncrolift is well positioned to
capture new orders, given its strong historical market share in what is effectively a duopolistic market. Reported Syncrolift backlog at quarter-end stood at NOK
522m, the lowest level we have observed for the company. Furthermore, 37% of the backlog relates to a shiplift at Haakonsvern with delivery in 1Q29. Hence,
we view it as important for Syncrolift to receive at least one new order or for the Asmar option to be exercised.
• Estimate changes: We lift Intellilift revenue on 26/27e by 11% and 9%, and EBITDA by 47/58%. Further, we lower Techano Oceanlift revenue by 12% on 2027e
given no order intake in the quarter. Further, we lower our revenue and EBITDA estimate on Syncrolift by 8% in 26e following no new orders.
• We reiterate Buy and lift our TP to NOK18/sh: Nekkar is currently trading at 2027e EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and P/E multiples of 4.9x, 5.3x, and 6.5x, respectively.
The company targets NOK2bn in revenue by end-2027 with an EBITDA margin of 10–20%. Our new and updated SOTP implies NOK 17.9 per share, driven by the
Intellilift stake expanding from NOK 2.2 to NOK 3.5 per share. As highlighted in our sector report in December last year, Nekkar remains one of our top picks for
2026e, and we believe the company is well positioned to benefit once the Syncrolift award cycle turns. Key triggers include new orders across the portfolio,
M&A (net cash position), and a potential exercise of the FiiZK option.
