Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Physitrack PLC - Physiotherapy and Telerehabilitation SaaS

Software/SaaS
#41

Redeye initiated analysis, full report:

https://www.redeye.se/api/articles/download-file/3d2bb720-52a0-3bf6-af2d-727f010778d9

Tracking growth with two business divisions priced as one Redeye initiates coverage on Physitrack, a scalable and rapidly growing e-health software company that assists corporations in improving employee health and patients with rehabilitation. The company has recently expanded into the fast-growing corporate health market with its Champion Health platform and now aims to take on the European market and more English-speaking markets to accelerate revenue and expand profit margins. Given recurring revenues at 70%, proforma growth of 30%-plus, expected margin expansion in 2023, and the marketonly pricing in one of the two business divisions, we see a significant potential upside in the investment case. We initiate coverage with a Base case of SEK38.

Valuation

Significant upside potential with two business divisions priced as one In our Base Case, we estimate a 2023e–2027e sales CAGR of 22%, with the EBIT margin expanding from 7% in 2023e to 24% by 2027e. Using a DCF model, we value Physitrack at a Base Case of SEK38. Our Bear Case is SEK72, and our Bull Case is SEK11.

Our perception of Physitrack differs significantly from that of the stock market. Physitrack is a
rapidly growing and scalable software company positioned for significant margin expansion in
our view. However, the stock market is pricing Physitrack as a one-division company with
limited margin expansion potential. This is reinforced by our sum-of-the-parts valuation, which
estimates a value of approximately SEK13 per share for the Wellness division and roughly
SEK24 per share for the Lifecare division. Moreover, the discount is also prominent when
comparing median EV/EBIT multiples for 2024e, with Physitrack trading at a c140% discount
relative to its Nordic SaaS peers.

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#42

Very solid company that fits all weather. More to come!

#43

Norwegian billionaire buys share at around 20sek.

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#44

Physitrack Q2 report out and Redeye analysis as well

Physitrack PLC – Interim report: January – June 2023

Another strong quarter, with adjusted EBITDA crossing the €1 million mark for the first time and year-to-date organic growth exceeding targets at 32 per cent.

Quarter ended - Apr - Jun 2023

  • Revenue increased by 23 per cent from the comparative period in 2022 to generate total sales of EUR 3.8m (EUR 3.1m). On an organic basis revenue grew by 25 per cent. This organic growth was achieved in both the Lifecare (9 per cent) and Wellness (66 per cent) divisions.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.0m (EUR 0.9m) was generated resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25 per cent (30 per cent).
  • Adjusted operating profit of EUR 0.1m (EUR 0.3m) was generated resulting in a margin of 1 per cent (11 per cent).
  • Adjusted ordinary and diluted loss per share totalled EUR 0.00 (EUR 0.01).
  • Cashflow generated from operations before the payment of adjusting items equalled EUR 0.5m (EUR 0.7m).
  • Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of EUR 0.6m (EUR 1.0m).

Operational highlights

  • Stepping up to the challenges of a strong comparative period and prior quarter, the group continued its impressive growth story by achieving year to date revenue growth of 33 per cent against prior year comparative, and 32 per cent on an organic basis.
  • The Group continues to focus on driving efficiencies in the underlying profitability of the business and in addition to focusing on higher margin commercial opportunities implemented a number of cost optimisation initiatives.
  • Physicourses expanded its service offering by partnering with world renowned education partners, increasing its content library and setting the scene for further revenue synergies between the core Lifecare business.
  • The Group re-confirms that it is expected there will be no further deferred contingent consideration payments for the remainder of the financial year, and no capital raising via share issuance or debt.

Redeye updates its estimates and fair value range after Physitrack’s stable Q2 2023 report, which came in close to our forecasts. We find the c25% organic growth, combined with effective cost management in the face of ongoing challenging market conditions, to be encouraging. We raise our base case to SEK41(SEK38) per share

  • Steady growth, profitability getting there eventually.
  • No deferred payments this year and no need for additional fund raises
  • Risks are getting lower, so also Redeye TP raised SEK38 → SEK41
#45

Nice thread for those who want to know more.

https://x.com/GalahadCapital/status/1684140918037950464?s=20

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#46

In swedish with some own words.

https://x.com/HappyZubi/status/1710987053855383813?s=20

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#47

Redeye preview of Q3

Physitrack will release its Q3 2023 report on 14 November at 08:00 and host a conference call at 10:00. We anticipate a solid quarter with c24% y/y organic growth and margin improvements. The prevailing situation from Q2 is expected to remain unchanged, with a continued focus on high-margin customers, resulting in a modestly restrained top-line performance while improving margins in Q3’23. Additionally, we anticipate that the Q3’23 results will reaffirm Physitrack’s progress toward achieving positive cash flow by Q4’23. At this time, we are reiterating our fair value range, with a base case of SEK41 per share.

Also a new deal mentioned, already from September

#48

Additional to Healix deal Physitrack announced new major deal with E.ON UK :partying_face:

Physitrack Plc - Subsidiary Champion Health signs agreement with E.ON UK

Champion Health, a wholly owned subsidiary of Physitrack Plc, signs agreement with one of the foremost names in the UK energy sector to support 9,000 employees with Employee Wellbeing solutions.

Champion Health, a leading provider of innovative Wellbeing solutions and a subsidiary of Physitrack Plc, has finalised a working agreement with E.ON UK, one of the foremost names in the energy sector, to support E.ON UK’s 9,000 employees.

The agreement supports colleague wellbeing, placing a strong emphasis on personalisation, preventive measures through data, and quick access to support via a bespoke digital directory.

#49

Q3 was a bit softer on topline than expected, other figures follow the suit. Otherwise quite expected report and new agreements support the growth and profitability based on the comments.

Q3 Review

The Q3 report reflects consistent performance in our view, showcasing the desired indicators. Margin expansion, stemming from effective cost management, growth in Wellness subscription revenues, and a 12% year-on-year increase in ARR, are notable highlights. Furthermore, there was a positive quarter-on-quarter improvement in cash flow. Nevertheless, the strategic emphasis on higher-margin customers led to a top-line that was slightly softer than expected. However, we contend that we prefer a restrained top-line with margin expansions over a strategy focused solely on pursuing growth at any cost. Year-to-date, the organic growth stands at 27%, surpassing the 17% median of its peer group for 2023e. Our optimistic outlook on the company persists, and we anticipate that new contracts for Champion Health will contribute to continued growth in the Wellness division during Q4 and 2024.

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#50

And yet again new order for Champion Health. Biggest in Nordic branch history, 4M SEK for year 2024

https://www.physitrackgroup.com/press-release?slug=physitrack-plc-champion-health-nordic-subsidiary-signs-agreement-with-multinational-energy-provider

Champion Health Nordic, a wholly owned Swedish subsidiary of Physitrack Plc, signs agreement with one of the foremost names in the European energy sector to support employees with Employee Wellbeing solutions.

Champion Health Nordic, a leading provider of innovative Wellbeing solutions and a Swedish subsidiary of Physitrack Plc, has finalised a working agreement with one of the foremost names in the European energy sector, to support its Swedish employees with employee wellbeing solutions.

The agreement supports the customer’s colleague wellbeing, placing a strong emphasis on biometric testing, coaching and preventive measures through data analysis. The contract spans over three years will add SEK 4 million of revenue in 2024, making it the largest in the history of Champion Health Nordic.

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#51

Discord live.

1 Like
#52

Great thread about PTRK.

https://x.com/GalahadCapital/status/1684140918037950464?s=20

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#53

From Redeye:

Physitrack trades at an EV/EBIT of 7.4x and an EV/Sales of 1.2x based on our 2025 estimates. Compared to peer median EBIT multiples for 2025e, Physitrack trades at roughly a 60% discount.

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#54

Yes, I think there is still some quarters to prove the profitability and growth. But the track is clear now and valuation is interesting at least. Several prior quarters have been challenging but focus on more profitable customer cases is paying now and in the future in the form of ARR.

Other notable comments:

ARR increased by 15% year-on-year, reaching EUR13.0m, surpassing our estimate by 6% and showing an 8% quarter-on-quarter growth. SaaS revenues now constitute 80% of total revenues, up from 72% last year, indicating a 23% year-on-year rise. We appreciate this shift towards SaaS revenue for its better margins and recurring nature

Accordingly, to management, 1/3 of the y/y growth is attributed to price increases and 2/3 to volume increases. Despite annual price hikes, churn levels trended inversely, implying pricing power

Redeye full report on Q1

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