what was your acquisition price of ZENA shares? something around 0.13NOK? what do you think about the current price? Is the decline due to Italian results? Do you think Italian results have much significance?
Current price reflects current production. Decline from last top is mainly due to impatience and doubt. Italian results has not been reflected is the Mcap so far, as one can observe in the 1 year chart, but will probably support the price from falling if no big deals materialize in the coming months.
I’ve had multiple transactions, my current position is average 0.12 NOK.
I believe the price fluctuation is more connected to expectations and speculation connected to new development in Africa. Italy and existing production in Tunis provides a lower bound for the price, but we’re far above it. If AC declared tomorrow that all other African projects were to be stopped and Zenith would focus solely on Italy and Tunis the price would crash as expectations for Africa are priced in. Only expectations are priced in, not guaranteed success, significant progress in the projects would likewise boost the price.
In total I think that the market overvalues the chances in Africa, and undervalues the existing production. If you don’t believe any of the Africa projects will succeed then the stock is currently overpriced, if you believe in success for at least one in reasonable time, then it is underpriced.
do you refer to AC acquisitions in Africa? what is the anticipated timeline of reporting these acquisitions? Hillside wrote something about “before December 15th”.
Yes, I am mainly referring to Tilapia, Seme. and ROB-3. Of these the only one with specific guiding on timeline is ROB-3:
Drilling activities are expected to commence in November 2022, following the mobilisation of a drilling rig to the well location.
Zenith has a history of saying “soon” and then no more news for months, so use your patience. I am not aware of any happening on dec 15th.
the only indication of the timeline for ROB-3:
Am I reading it correctly that production on ROB-1 well is ONLY 50 barrels per day!?
Yes, this is why they plan to drill a new well on Robbana.
Does the today’s Yemen news have any significance?
I doubt it, it’s good news in a way, but only concrete progress will have significant impact on the Zena price now. There’s already enough “hope” and “maybe” and “soon”.
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What numbers do you expect for H1 on 24.11.2022?
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If they never sold the oil we were discussing in this thread then the h1 numbers will be bad. If they did manage a lift, then h1 numbers should be good. There were no huge non-reoccuring “other expenses” during h1 to mess up the bottom line as far as we know. So it comes down to sold oil and el-prices. I have no basis to speculate further on h1 numbers.
regarding solar segment – the results should be good. production in Italy was good and the prices were high. other solar energy producers operating in Italy (ex AEGA) have all reported very good numbers for all three Q-s. It’s a pity ZENA does not report Q-s but only H-s.
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