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Ultimovacs (ULTI) Fundamentale forhold

Men har de ikke bare sagt at de ser en lovende trend på OS? Eller noe i den duren?

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Jo, det er riktig at lederen for NIPU-studien, i tilknytning til børsmeldingen den 7. juni, uttalte dette.

Men her må man ikke glømme at børsmeldingen gjaldt resultatet mht det definerte primærendepunktet, mPFS.

Når Helland nå skal presentere NIPU-studien ved ESMO om vel to uker, vil oppmerksomheten i hovedsak være retta mot hva oppdaterte overlevelsesdata viser. Disse vil være flere måneder mer modne.

Skulle trenden i de tidlige overlevelsesdata nå både bekreftes og forsterkes, så står vi i den situasjonen at BICRs konklusjon kan bli “overkjørt” av gullstandardsdata; altså “overall survival”.

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  1. juni hadde det vel totalt i de to armene vært 69 PFS events, ikke 69 OS events som du antyder her…?
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ESMO presentasjonen hadde vel neppe blitt godkjent om OS ikke er forbedret siden forrige readout?

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Det har vel ikke vært noen «read out» av annet enn den binære vurderingen av PFS nådd eller ikke nådd? Det fantes selvsagt mer data også for OS, men det tidspunktet var jo styrt av PFS og antall events som var oppnådd på det tidspunktet.

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Fra studien står det å lese…Progresjonsfri overlevelse (PFS) i henhold til Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) som bestemt ved blindet uavhengig sentral gjennomgang (BICR) vurdert ved radiologiske vurderinger

Ferdig snakka. PFS er en gjennomgang av …radiologiske vurderinger

Dette innlegget ble rapportert og er midlertidig skjult.

Hundre prosent korrekt. Men hva mener du med “Ferdig snakka”?

Det vi kan være trygge på, er at Åslaug Helland ikke har sendt abstraktet sitt til ESMO - og fått antatt det for publisering og muntlig presentasjon - som en invitasjon til “omkamp” om konklusjonen til BICR.

Poenget er at “Overall survival” troner høyt over samtlige surrogatendepunkter, herunder også PFS.

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/role-disclosures-helping-understand-oncology-clinical-trial-endpoints

Med andre od; om oppdaterte overlevelsesdata allerede nå skulle gi et signifikant resultat, havner BICRs kjennelse langt bak i bakspeilet. Både hos FDA, Bristol Myers Squibb og øvrige farmagiganter (og CPI-eiere) som måtte følge interessert med.

Red.
Om OS-data ennå ikke har nådd signifikant nivå, så kan de ha gjort det ved neste korsveg. For eksempel etter at samtlige pasienter har gjennomgått ett års oppfølging. Da er vi litt utpå nyåret.

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Ultimovacs Receives FDA Orphan Drug Designation for the UV1 Cancer Vaccine for Treatment of Mesothelioma

  • The orphan drug designation was granted based on data from the randomized
    Phase II clinical trial NIPU
    • The results from the NIPU study will be presented at the ESMO Congress being
      held October 20-24, 2023 in Madrid
    • UV1 also received FDA orphan drug designation for treatment of patients with
      malignant melanoma in December 2021

Oslo, October 09, 2023: Ultimovacs ASA (“Ultimovacs”) (OSE ULTI), a clinical-
stage biotechnology leader in novel immunotherapeutic cancer vaccines, today
announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Orphan
Drug Designation (ODD) to the company’s therapeutic cancer vaccine UV1 for the
treatment of patients with mesothelioma. The designation was granted based on
the initial data from the Phase II clinical trial, NIPU.

Mesothelioma is a rare and aggressive form of cancer with a high mortality rate
and few therapeutic options. Patients with mesothelioma commonly have a history
of occupationally or environmentally exposure to asbestos, and it typically
takes decades for this specific form of cancer to develop.

The impact of UV1 vaccination in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma is
being assessed in the randomized Phase II clinical trial, NIPU. In the study,
UV1 was combined with checkpoint inhibitors ipilimumab and nivolumab and
compared to ipilimumab and nivolumab alone as a second-line treatment after
first-line treatment with platinum-based chemotherapy. The randomized, open-
label, multicenter trial with 118 patients was conducted in Australia, Denmark,
Norway, Spain, and Sweden. The first patient in the trial was enrolled in June
2020, and the last patient was enrolled in January 2023. The NIPU study is
sponsored by Oslo University Hospital with support from Bristol-Myers Squibb and
Ultimovacs.

The results from the study will be shared at the ESMO Congress in Madrid, held
October 20-24, in an oral presentation by the Principal Investigator, Åslaug
Helland, MD, Ph.D., Professor at Oslo University Hospital. The presentation
title is “LBA99 - First survival data from the NIPU trial; A randomized, open-
label, phase II study evaluating nivolumab and ipilimumab combined with UV1
vaccination as second-line treatment in patients with malignant mesothelioma”.

“Gaining FDA orphan drug designation for UV1 in mesothelioma highlights UV1’s
potential and the significant need for new treatment options for this patient
population,” said Carlos de Sousa, CEO of Ultimovacs. “We look forward to the
presentation of the NIPU results at the ESMO Congress later this month and to
continue our dialogue with the FDA as we seek to bring UV1 to cancer patients as
quickly as possible.”

The FDA’s Office of Orphan Products Developments grants orphan status to support
the development of medicines for rare disorders that affect fewer than 200,000
people in the U.S. Orphan drug designation provides certain benefits, including
potentially up to seven years of market exclusivity upon regulatory approval,
exemption of FDA application fees, and tax credits for qualified clinical
trials.

UV1 is a therapeutic cancer vaccine that generates an immune response against
the human telomerase (hTERT) enzyme. The enzyme is essential for the ability of
cancer cells to proliferate. Telomerase is present in 85-90% of all cancers
across all stages of the disease.

Ultimovacs is evaluating the universal cancer vaccine UV1 in a broad clinical
development program across various cancer indications with different biologies
and disease stages, combined with different checkpoint inhibitors. The topline
data from NIPU are the first results among the currently five randomized trials
in the UV1 Phase II clinical program. In addition to malignant pleural
mesothelioma, Phase II studies are ongoing in patients with malignant melanoma,
head and neck cancer, ovarian cancer, and non-small cell lung cancer. The
topline data from the malignant melanoma and head and neck cancer trials are
also expected within a year. UV1 is a patented, proprietary technology owned by
Ultimovacs.

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/600985

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Ultimovacs Receives FDA Orphan Drug Designation for the UV1 Cancer Vaccine for Treatment of Mesothelioma

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Ultimovacs Receives FDA Orphan Drug Designation for the UV1 Cancer Vaccine for Treatment of Mesothelioma

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Ultimovacs Provides 4-Year Update from Phase I Study in Malignant Melanoma: Demonstrating Sustained Long-Term Overall Survival in Patients Treated with UV1 Cancer Vaccine

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Fantastiske nyheter, først og fremst for pasientene, men også for selskapet selvfølgelig!

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Nydelig hale, lav N eller ei (upresist illustrert på ustø morgenhånd og mobil):

IMG_1458

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Fundamental analyse: Kjøp

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Gir dette HR på ca 0.63 mot Pembro. Eller regner jeg helt feil.
Hilsen legmann

Du regner nok ikke feil. Men HR er ikke et rent forholdstall.


Denne gangen har jo selskapet laget en tabell som ligner på min i meldingen, men jeg oppdaterer den likevel, for den har KN-006 tallene i en kolonne. Og fra den kan man se at differansen bare blir større og større!

OS KEYNOTE-006 kohort 1 (n=20) kohort 2 (n=10) kohort 1+2 (n=30)
12mnd 68 % 85% (17) 90% (9) 87% (26)
18mnd 63 % 80% (16) ?
24mnd 58 % 80% (16) 60% (6) 73% (22)
36mnd 51 % 71% (12/17) 60% (6/10) 67% (18/27)
48mnd 46 % 71% (12/17)
60mnd 43 %
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Står det ikke 11/16 (69%) på 48 mnd?

Ikke at det forandrer så mye, altså :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

Ja, min tabell er “the non-conservative approach” :stuck_out_tongue:

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Vedkommende som de midlertidig ikke fikk tak i er vel ikke midlertidig død?

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