UK High Court dismissed AutoStore’s patent infringement case heard in March/April 2022
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Opp 25%!? What am I missing? 
Autostore stiger
Robotlagerselskapet Autostore gjør det bra på Børsen etter sitt tallslipp, på tross av at inntekter og overskudd kom inn under analytikernes forventinger. Ordreinngangen på 164 millioner dollar var samtidig bedre enn ventet.
Autostore-aksjen stiger nesten 15 prosent.
Omsetningen endte på 149,2 millioner dollar i første kvartal. Det er opp fra 123 millioner dollar på samme tid i fjor, men under forventingen om inntekter på 161,8 millioner dollar.
Resultatet før skatt ble 25,6 millioner dollar, mot 28,2 millioner dollar i samme periode i 2022 og en forventing om et resultat på 43,9 millioner.
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2.5 milliarder i erstatning til selskapet de selv opprinnelig saksøkte. Dette høres jo ikke bra ut i det hele tatt.
Link?
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Pluss rundt 10% til egne advokater…
Åpningskurs mandag?
Regner med at tapt rettsak, null i innkommende erstatning og 250mill i advokatregning er for lengst regnet inn hos de fleste…men 2,5 mrd i baksmell? Vi får se.
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AUTO (Sell, tp NOK10): Autostore emerges weakened from the Settlement.
Highlights and background
In 2020, Autostore accused Ocado of using some of its patented technology and tried to protect six patents that it said Ocado had breached. In March this year, the UK high court ruled in favor of Ocado. This weekend, Autostore and Ocado announced a complete settlement of all claims between the companies in their patent dispute, involving several disputes and jurisdictions. The principle terms of the agreement are:
- All patent litigation claims withdrawn globally
- Mutually beneficial global cross-license of each other’s pre 2020 patents
- Both companies can continue to use and market all their own existing products without challenge
- Ocado retains exclusive rights to the Single Space Robot
- AutoStore will pay £200 million to Ocado in instalments over 2 years
Our thoughts and conclusions
- Autostore had a weak case against Ocado, and ended up with a £200m cash payment to avoid an even worse outcome of Ocado’s recent and potential cases against Autostore.
- The good news is that the case is closed, while the size of the cash payment and the potential implications for Autostore IP assets and competitive position are negatives.
- The cash payment of USD~260m comes on top of litigation costs that exceeds USD75m (+ costs related to management allocation). The settlement price is higher than what has been expected in the market, in our view. Our forecast is USD20m in litigation costs per year for 2023e and 2024e, and then a decline down to zero in 2027e.
- The deal gives access to each of the company’s patent portfolio dated before 2020. We note that the booked value of Autostore’s intangible assets in general, and patent right in particular, have declined every year since 2020. Hence, Autostore seems to share all its key patents with Ocado, and simultaneously pay Ocado £200m. We are not sure how Autostore can utilize some of Ocado’s patents before 2020; but one thing seems clear: Autostore’s patents are of less value and can be challenged by existing and new market players. We agree that Autostore has demonstrated willingness to fight and spend money on protecting its IP, but the market has also seen the outcome of it. Some will claim that Autostore and Ocado just had a mutual benefit of ending the case, and that Ocado’s IP had bigger value for Autostore than the other way around. We refer to the stock market release in which the companies state that the settlement does not provide for collaboration or technology assistance between the companies, and we doubt that Autostore pays £200m to get access to some patents, dated before 2020, without collaboration and assistance. Our take is that the pre-2020 patent sharing was the necessary move from Ocado to finally land a deal, and that £200m was a decent motivation.
- Our conclusion is that Autostore comes out in a weaker position from the legal process and settlement. The cash payment is surprisingly big, but more importantly, we see the company as more vulnerable following what we argue is a demonstration of weakened IP assets.
- £200m, or NOK2.6bn, is only ~3% of the current market cap in Autostore (NOK82.6bn), but significantly exceeding earnings, which brings us to valuation: The stock trades at 50-60x P/E for 2023e/24e, on our estimates.
- We estimate negative sales growth in 2024e, and has not seen anything in the market that leads us to become more optimistic on near term order development. Autostore’s customers are challenged by weaker demand and higher funding costs.
- Finally, the ownership structure in Autostore remains highly concentrated, and the announced settlement is critical information that has become public.
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Synes det er så rart at denne ikke vekker mer interesse blant småsparerne. Skulle tro at et norsk robotselskap med ipo cap på 120mrd og som ikke sjeldent svinger med 5, 10 og 15% intradag, ville være veldig spennende….
Jeg skjønner det egentlig, er priset til 123x FCF forventet i år. Så har veldig høy prising, dette pga høy forventet vekst. Og så skuffer ordreinngangen.
Selskapet har levert i snitt 50% vekst siden 2011 mener jeg det stod i en av rapportene. Så har god statestikk, men enkelt å vokse mye når omsetningen er lav. Vanskeligere å øke 40% på 7mrd i omsetning enner 80% da omsetningen var 3mrd.
Tror selskapet har en god tid foran seg, men kan være Mossige får rett på veldig kort sikt. Det har vel hendt en gang før i 2020 at omsetning falt 5% på et år før en fikk nesten 80% året etter.
Selv ser jeg på mulig inngang lavere enn den er nå og har det ikke travelt med å kjøpe.
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Ja, glad jeg ikke sitter i denne nå…Jeg vet ikke hvor den ender, selv en kurs på 10kr gir P/E over 40. Hvis veksten dabber av fantaserer jeg om en kurs på 2,50, men det kanskje drøyt. Softbank kompliserer det hele også for meg.
Noen med tanker rundt dagens sluttauksjon på 8.1m antall aksjer? 7.6m mer enn «vanlig»