Good stuff… 
With Bitcoin everything is so precise (the power law, the timing of the cycles), even the decay of the tops is precise (at least given the data points we have). The tops decay with an exponential function with a decay rate of 0.0002 /days.
It is an uncanny fit if we one uses 4 points. It is only 4 points so even if the stats are statistically significant we need to take this part of the model with a grain of salt. But if we consider it at face value then it is very interesting.
We have 3 very different processes that rule Bitcoin behavior:
- A power law scale invariant behavior (that has no characteristic time in fact it is self similar at all time scales)
- A cyclic bubble periodicity of about 4 years.
- A decay of the top of bubbles in time that has a characteristic e folding of 1/0.0002= 5000 days or 13.6 years.
In a decay process the e folding is related to the half life of a process. In the case of the e folding is the characteristic time when the process (in this case how high a bubble can go) is reduced to a factor of 1/e~ 0.36 or 36 %.
So in about 13 years the bubbles got reduced by about 64 % of the initial potential. By another e folding, or 26 years since the birth of Bitcoin we go down to 86 % and 3 e folding or 39 years the bubble potential is reduced by 95 %.
So we are seeing a reduction of the bubbles on time scales of order of the present life of Bitcoin.
It is interesting to see that even this component, that is supposed to be the most unstable, is so precise and consistent. We will see if this holds for the next bubble.
https://x.com/giovann35084111/status/1815553873958089200?s=46&t=BMT81rulcF9qGjqL_LuXsA
Mark Cuban says Kamala Harris staff have reached out to him about 
“…have a good time with your bitcoin, and your crypto, and everything else you’re playing with…”
