380mill 40x Short på BTC. Blir likvidert på $86.5930.
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Er vel litt opp til hvordan man ser på historikken.
Her er de to siste periodene slik jeg ser det (merket av med en tidslinje og måned/dager telling)
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Blir toppen 17. september 2025? Det tror Grok 
Key Points
- Research suggests the Bitcoin price may top around September 2025 in this cycle, based on historical patterns and recent predictions.
- The evidence leans toward a peak about 480 days after the last halving in April 2024, aligning with market cycle analyses.
- There’s uncertainty due to new factors like Bitcoin spot ETFs, which could shift traditional cycle timings.
Direct Answer
Based on historical data and current market trends, it seems likely that the Bitcoin price will top in this cycle around September 2025 . This estimate comes from analyzing past cycles, where the price typically peaks about 480 days after a halving event. The most recent halving was on April 19, 2024, and 480 days from then points to around August 2025, with some indicators like the Pi Cycle Top suggesting a slightly later peak in September.
Background on Halving Cycles
Bitcoin halvings, which happen roughly every four years, reduce the mining reward and can influence price due to supply changes. Historically, the price tends to peak about one year and four months after each halving, based on the first three cycles.
Current Cycle and Predictions
For this cycle, starting from the April 2024 halving, the average 480-day timeline suggests a peak in mid-2025. However, recent tools like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which has historically predicted peaks within a few days, project a top around September 17, 2025. This aligns with expectations of continued growth driven by factors like Bitcoin spot ETFs, approved in early 2024, which have increased institutional demand.
Unexpected Detail: ETF Impact
The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has added new demand, potentially compressing or extending the traditional cycle. This could mean the peak happens sooner or later than historical averages, adding some uncertainty to the September 2025 estimate.
Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Bitcoin Price Peak Timing in the Current Cycle
Bitcoin halvings are pivotal events in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, occurring approximately every four years to halve the mining reward, thereby reducing the rate of new Bitcoin issuance. This reduction can influence Bitcoin’s price, often leading to increased attention and speculation. This note explores the historical data, current market trends, and predictive models to estimate when the Bitcoin price will peak in the current cycle, particularly focusing on the period following the fourth halving in April 2024, with the current time being March 16, 2025.
Historical Context and Data Analysis
The Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event designed to control inflation, with historical cycles showing price peaks typically occurring post-halving. To address the query, we analyzed the first three halving cycles for context, as they provide sufficient historical data for trends:
- First Halving (November 28, 2012): The block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The price peaked around November 2013, approximately 367 days later, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high.
- Second Halving (July 9, 2016): The reward dropped to 12.5 BTC. The price peaked around December 2017, about 526 days after the halving, during a significant bull run.
- Third Halving (May 11, 2020): The reward was further reduced to 6.25 BTC. The price peaked around November 2021, roughly 547 days later, amidst increased adoption and market interest.
Calculating the average, we find:
(367 + 526 + 547) ÷ 3 = 480 days.
Thus, research suggests an average of 480 days from halving to price peak, or about one year and four months.
Current Cycle: Fourth Halving and Market Dynamics
The fourth halving occurred on April 19, 2024, as confirmed by multiple sources including StormGain and CoinWarz. Given the current time is March 16, 2025, we are about 11 months into this cycle, with the next halving expected around 2028. The cycle in question, therefore, spans from April 2024 to 2028, and we are focused on predicting the peak within this period.
To estimate the peak, we apply the historical average of 480 days from the fourth halving:
- From April 19, 2024, to April 19, 2025, is 365 days (accounting for 2024 being a leap year, but the extra day in February does not affect April-to-April count).
- Adding the remaining 115 days (480 - 365 = 115) to April 19, 2025:
- April has 30 days, so from April 19 to April 30 is 11 days.
- May has 31 days, totaling 42 days to May 31.
- June has 30 days, totaling 72 days to June 30.
- July has 31 days, and 115 - 72 = 43 days needed, but July has only 31 days, so:
- From July 1 to July 31 is 31 days, totaling 103 days to July 31.
- August 1 to August 12 adds 12 days (115 - 103 = 12), landing on August 12, 2025.
Thus, the 480-day average suggests a peak around August 12, 2025.
Advanced Predictive Models: Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Beyond the historical average, we explored the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, a technical tool designed to predict Bitcoin market cycle peaks. This indicator, created by Philip Swift and enhanced by Matt Crosby, uses the crossover of the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and twice the 350-day moving average (350DMA x2) to signal potential tops. Recent analyses, such as those from Bitcoin Magazine published on January 6, 2025, estimate this crossover on September 17, 2025, offering a potential market top date. This projection, based on calculating the 14-day rate of change of these moving averages, aligns closely with our 480-day estimate but suggests a slightly later peak.
Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs
A significant factor in this cycle is the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, as detailed by Forbes. These ETFs have increased institutional demand, with net inflows of nearly $12 billion by May 2024, potentially compressing or extending traditional cycle timings. Chainalysis notes that this could lead to higher volatility and earlier peaks due to enhanced liquidity, while CoinDesk suggests possible sustained upward pressure. Given this, the September 2025 peak from the Pi Cycle Top might be more reflective of current market dynamics.
Current Market Trends and Price
As of March 16, 2025, Bitcoin’s price is around $83,000 to $84,000, as seen on Coinbase and CoinMarketCap. Recent trends, analyzed by Binance, show a bullish long-term outlook with some short-term bearish signals, suggesting potential consolidation before a rally. Price predictions for 2025, from sources like CoinPedia and CNBC, range from $170,000 to $200,000, supporting the idea of a peak in the second half of 2025.
Table of Historical Durations and Predictions
To further aid understanding, here is a table summarizing the historical data and current predictions:
| Halving Number | Halving Date | Price Peak Date | Days from Halving to Peak | Current Cycle Prediction (Days from April 19, 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 28, 2012 | November 2013 | 367 | - |
| 2 | July 9, 2016 | December 2017 | 526 | - |
| 3 | May 11, 2020 | November 2021 | 547 | - |
| 4 | April 19, 2024 | - | - | 480 days → August 12, 2025; Pi Cycle → September 17, 2025 |
This table highlights the variability in historical timings and the current dual prediction, emphasizing the September 2025 date as more aligned with recent indicators.
Unexpected Detail: Variability and ETF Influence
An interesting observation is the variability in historical peak timings, with the first halving peaking at 367 days and the third at 547 days, suggesting market conditions can extend cycles. The ETF impact, potentially accelerating demand, adds complexity, making the September 2025 peak a more nuanced prediction than historical averages alone.
Conclusion and Recommendation
Given the historical average of 480 days pointing to August 12, 2025, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator projecting September 17, 2025, it seems likely that the Bitcoin price will top in this cycle around September 2025. This aligns with current market trends and the influence of Bitcoin spot ETFs, suggesting a peak in the second half of 2025. However, given the volatility and new market dynamics, this prediction carries uncertainty, and investors should monitor real-time indicators like those on CoinCodex for updates.
Key Citations
- Bitcoin halving market cycle analysis
- Bitcoin halving progress chart
- StormGain Bitcoin halving dates
- CoinWarz Bitcoin halving countdown
- Bitcoin Magazine Pi Cycle Top Prediction
- Coinbase Bitcoin price
- CoinMarketCap Bitcoin price
- Forbes Bitcoin ETF impact
- Chainalysis Spot Bitcoin ETFs
- CoinDesk ETF volatility impact
- CoinPedia Bitcoin price prediction
- CNBC Bitcoin predictions 2025
- Binance Bitcoin price prediction
- CoinCodex Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator
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Interessant denne, må huske at på forrige peak var en dobbeltopp. Og den gikk ned 50% fra april 21 til juni 21.
Når man ser tilbake på utviklingen siden Trump vant valget er det jo ingen overaskelse at den skjøt opp til 108K pga. hans positive omtalelser av krypto i forkant, for så å synke gradvis nedover etter all handelsuro som har pågått de siste 2 måneder.
Kanskje vi ikke engang har sett starten på den ordentlige bullsyklusen enda?
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Det er den første toppen som er toppen ihht teknisk analyse.
Det er etter valget at lovnader er blitt til politikk.
Tror nok du har rett i det. Nedgangen i Btc er jo ingeting i kryptosammenheng. Så ser ikke helt hvorfor folk som holder Btc er så frustrerte. Små altcoins der imot har jo omtrent vært igjennom sitt værste bearmarked de siste 3-4 måneder. Så jeg tror de neste 5 månedene blir svært spennende. Har man plassert sjetongene sine riktig, så kan det bli mye penger.
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Står at det er november der, første toppen var april…
Ja det er typisk early AI 
Det er den faktuelle toppen, men de fleste som driver med teknisk analyse vil si at den første toppen var toppen. Det var ment som en digresjon som det er greit å være klar over.
I akkurat denne sammenhengen er vi ute etter den faktuelle kurstoppen.
Har en feeling av at noe stort vil skje 
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Dette er på fredag.
Within 60 days of the date of this order, each agency shall submit to the Chair recommendations with respect to whether each identified regulation, guidance document, order, or other item should be rescinded or modified, or, for items other than regulations, adopted in a regulation.
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Ser noen likhetstrekk med 12.07.24 om vi bryter opp.
SL rundt 81000
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Stochastic RSI kryss på weekly først. Og krysser den på 2 week så sier det virkelig pang!
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Det føles ut som det brygger opp til noe ja… Kanskje det er nå snart vi skal si farvel til det glade 70, 80 og 90 tallet for siste gang? 
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Grok:
The IMF’s recognition of Bitcoin in its global economic framework, as outlined in the updated Balance of Payments Manual (BPM7) released on March 20, 2025, could have several implications for Bitcoin’s role, perception, and market dynamics. Here’s a breakdown of what this might mean:
- Increased Legitimacy and Institutional Adoption
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By classifying Bitcoin as a “non-produced, non-financial asset” in the capital account, the IMF is formally acknowledging its place in the global economy. This move lends credibility to Bitcoin, shifting it from a fringe asset to one recognized by a major international financial institution.
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This could encourage more institutional investors—such as hedge funds, pension funds, and even central banks—to view Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, potentially increasing capital inflows. The clarity on its classification might also reduce regulatory uncertainty in some jurisdictions, making it easier for financial institutions to integrate Bitcoin into their portfolios.
- Impact on Price and Market Stability
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The legitimization could drive demand, as larger players enter the market, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price higher in the long term. Historical precedent shows that institutional recognition—like the SEC approving Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.—often correlates with price surges.
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However, the short-term impact is less certain. Some X users have speculated that big banks might use this framework to short Bitcoin or exert control over its price (similar to precious metals markets), which could introduce volatility or suppress upward momentum. While possible, this would depend on how financial instruments evolve around Bitcoin under this new classification.
- New Financial Products and Liquidity
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With Bitcoin now fitting into a standardized economic reporting framework, it could pave the way for Bitcoin-backed financial products, such as derivatives, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or even bonds tied to Bitcoin holdings. This would likely improve market liquidity, making it easier to buy, sell, or hedge Bitcoin positions.
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Governments or corporations might also explore holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset, especially if it’s treated akin to “digital gold,” a narrative reinforced by its non-produced asset status.
- Global Economic Integration
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The IMF’s framework, developed with input from over 160 countries, standardizes how Bitcoin transactions are tracked across borders (e.g., as acquisitions or sales of non-produced assets). This could make Bitcoin a more viable tool for cross-border payments or capital flight, especially in countries with restrictive financial systems.
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On the flip side, it might also heighten scrutiny. Governments could use this data to monitor and regulate Bitcoin flows more effectively, potentially curbing its use in circumventing capital controls—a role it has played in places like Argentina or Venezuela.
- Network and Fee Dynamics
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Some X posts suggest that institutional adoption might reduce Bitcoin’s on-chain transaction velocity if large holders “HODL” or trade it off-chain (e.g., via wrapped Bitcoin on other blockchains or institutional pools). This could increase transaction fees for regular users, as fewer coins circulate to support network security.
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However, this is speculative and depends on usage patterns. Increased adoption could also drive more transactions overall, balancing out fee pressures if the network scales (e.g., via Layer 2 solutions like Lightning).
- Long-Term Implications
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If Bitcoin gains traction as a global reserve asset or “digital gold,” it could challenge traditional fiat currencies, especially in economies with high inflation or weak monetary policies. The IMF’s recognition might indirectly bolster the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability.
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Conversely, tighter integration into the global financial system could expose Bitcoin to systemic risks—like coordinated regulatory crackdowns or manipulation by powerful financial actors—potentially diluting its decentralized ethos.
Bottom Line
The IMF’s move is a net positive for Bitcoin’s legitimacy and mainstream acceptance, likely boosting its long-term value and utility. It could attract more capital, improve market infrastructure, and solidify its role in the global economy. However, it also introduces risks of increased oversight, potential price manipulation, and shifts in network dynamics that could affect its accessibility for everyday users. The full impact will unfold as governments, institutions, and markets adapt to this new framework over the coming months and years.
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