Prøvd å forklare dette flere ganger. Når markedet faller nok, kommer råvarer med. Markedet er forward pricing og har allerede begynt å prise inn mild resesjon. Siste del av uken fikk man bounce i indeksene + treasury(bull steepening pga resesjonsfrykt, begynte å prise inn rentekutt fra Powell) og da får man bounce i råvarer, olje osv fordi resesjonsfrykten svekkes. Det er ingen tvil om at råvaremarkedet er super tight, det er det helt åpenbare.
Denne dynamikken mellom fallende inflasjon og resesjon kommer til å være ekstremt komplisert. Hvor mange har du hørt være bull kobber siste 12 måneder ? Guess what, alle de er i minus.
Råvare bull-traden slik jeg ser den blir når markedet går mot resesjon, og råvarer stuper. Da vil det komme gode kjøpsmuligheter. Slik som den sell-offen som var nå hvor man får alt fra 10-30% billigere priser. Og det var prising av mindre resesjon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/metal-prices-are-headed-for-the-worst-quarter-since-the-financial-crisis?srnd=premium-europe
Industrial metals are on track for the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis as prices are pummeled by recession worries. Copper, the great economic bellwether, has ricocheted into a bear market from a record four months ago, while tin just tumbled 21% in its worst week since a 1980s crisis froze London trading for four years.
For a metal like copper, its uses in everything from heavy industrial machinery to advanced electronics mean the market is tightly linked to economic shifts, and the retreat marks a signal from commodity markets that efforts to get prices back under control are having some early successes. The mood in metals has soured even as Chinese Covid-19 lockdowns start to ease, and there are signs that traders there are betting copper prices will fall further.
“Even if China recovers in the second half, it won’t be able to single-handedly boost prices back to new highs — that age has gone,” Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodities strategy at BOCI Global Commodities, said by phone from London. “If other major economies are heading towards a recession, China won’t be growing at exceptional rates either.”
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