Havana har allerede luftet dette flere ganger; råvareprisen har falt mye. Diskusjonene som spinner ut av dette er om det handler om resesjonsfrykt og økonomien kjøles ned. Er det styrt av renteøkningen fra alle sentralbankene, eller er det flere ting som trigger det? Jeg heller til å tro at panikktanker rundt krigen i Ukraina satte store spørsmåltegn for alle råvarer; hva er end game når store leverandører av olje, gass, alu, hvete med flere flytter fokuset fra produksjon til konflikt, og sanksjoner presser opp prisene på knapphetsgoder? Jo, inflasjonen løper videre i et allerede overstimulert marked, godt presset av flaskehalser.
Derfor er det svært interessant å lese denne kommentaren fra Twentyfour om hvilke positive effekter som kommer ut av fallende råvarerprises. And surprise, surprise, det er good news for inflasjon fremover.
The first piece of positive news has to do with commodities prices. Given the persistence of the supply shock, it is difficult to see inflation expectations correcting unless commodities prices do so first, and over the last month we have started to see precisely that. Most commodities have seen price declines that are quite substantial, with oil falling close to 10% in a day this week and down 17% in the last month. One-month performance in other products has followed suit, with aluminium down 12.25%, copper and nickel down around 20% and notably wheat down 27.5%. All good news from a markets point of view, and with wheat futures having now given up all their gains since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine good news from a humanitarian one as well. In our opinion these reflect the fact that aggregated demand is likely to slow. In other words the managed slowdown the Fed is attempting is showing signs of actually working. Financial conditions have tightened and markets expect this to have an impact on demand for commodities. This is good news as the sooner the Fed achieves their objective the sooner they can pause their adjustment to monetary policy.
The second piece of positive news comes from inflation breakevens. The Fed and other central banks cannot even start thinking about thinking about pausing monetary policy adjustment, to borrow Jerome Powell’s phrase, if inflation expectations are at risk of becoming de-anchored. The one-year inflation breakeven in the US has declined from its year-to-date peak of 6.30% to 3.75% currently, the five-year breakeven has dropped from a YTD peak of 3.75% to 2.50% currently, and the 5Y/5Y breakeven (i.e. average inflation expectations from 2027 till 2032) has dipped from a YTD peak of 2.55% to 2.05% currently. We are not suggesting the Fed is about to pause right now, but this necessary condition for them to do so once inflation starts declining in earnest is currently satisfied. Needless to say, this correction in inflation expectations is partly down to the aforementioned price action in commodities.
So while we are not calling the bottom of the market at this juncture, it would be foolish to ignore the fact that the main driver of central banks’ aggressive policy tightening might be showing some early signs of moving in the right direction. For investors (and the Fed), the hope is that this delicate balancing act of slowing aggregated demand to bring down growth and commodities without causing a major recession can continue. Time will tell, but we do think it is a possibility that should not be ruled out altogether.
bare kjøre på nachspielet er ikke over la festen gå 
