Bubbles popping are only known in hindsight, indeed one could’ve been entirely oblivious to a bubble bursting in 2000 looking at $SPX as the index chopped in range for months following the March bubble popping:
It just took that long for that realization to filter through the broader stock market and the economy.
Bottomline here: Last week’s highs in markets and crypto may have been deceiving. Whether we get new highs still or not I submit there is a lot of damage taking place in this hyper valued market that is masked by the new highs headlines of last week. And the cumulative picture leaves the door open for the possibility that the bubble has already popped, except none of us realize it yet for recent new highs are masking it all.
Now I freely acknowledge all this could end up being wrong and the ghost of 2013 may just continue ticking here, especially as nothing big has broken yet in the broader market.
But I also submit that we will only know for certain in hindsight, but if these data points send a viable signal then the implications could be profound. At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped.