Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Bjørnetråden: 2.2 - Det klargjøres for Bearfest 202x 1

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Norge har jo satt opp renten, ganske alene. Ser ikke for meg at renten skal fort opp i USA/EU heller med disse tallene. Så da blir det fortsatt lav rente. Så er jo spørsmålet hvordan dette påvirker aksjemarkedet.

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Handel, målt i TEU (twenty foot container equivalent) er opp fra og med august 2020 til og med mars 2021 som er så langt dette chartet gikk. Fant ikke tall for resten av 2021 akkurat nå.

Ref: Container shipping: Records keep falling as industry enjoys best markets ever

EDIT:

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Kan sammenligne data fra dette chartet med dataene for juli 2020 i chartet over.

Ref: Container shipping - onshore disruption leading to record delays and profits

The delays mean that more ships are needed to maintain scheduled sailings.

Altså mer kapasitet trengs på hver rute når det tar lenger tid for å få samme volum fram

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Ja, klarte ikke få fram faktiske volumet som ble shipped. Så noe data for spesifike havner, men det blir litt mye jobb å gå igjennom.

for us Today’s call It comes from Mike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, who offers a range of reasons to stay defensive in this market.

“The big-cap quality lead since March signals what we think is about to happen – slower growth and tighter financial conditions. The question many investors are now asking is whether price action has really clinched these fundamental results,” Wilson said. In a Sunday note to clients: “The short answer, in our opinion, is no.”

Wilson’s list of reasons includes China’s growth problems likely stemming from the troubled real estate giant Evergrande (more on that below) — which are not fully priced. Then there is the astonishing speed with which the Fed expects to cut – by the middle of next year – a “clearly hawkish turn”. The subsequent market ramifications – rising bonds and yields and falling stocks – are indicative, he said.

In short, higher real rates should mean lower stock prices. Second, it could also mean value over growth even as the overall stock market is down. This makes the investment environment doubly difficult given how most investors are positioned.

One of the recent defensive signals came from a recent surprising challenge to the “buy on dip” strategy — “the strongest offsetting of the material correction in the S&P 500 this year,” Wilson said.

“After the decline and rise of Evergrande, the stocks retreated and took previous lows, making it the first time that buying on the dip did not succeed, and at the same time it violated important technical support,” he said, providing the following chart.

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Hmm nå ble det skikkelig rødt i USA igjen :scream:

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Noen som Jar erfaringer med disse 4?

The Great Reset :sweat_smile:

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Finding Value Finance på Youtube. Vil anbefale denne herremannen til absolutt alle.

Ekstremt innsiktsfulle perspektiver på diverse sykluser, og en overbevisende hypotese om tiden vi har foran oss.

I et nøtteskall: råvare-boom foran oss i tandem med økning i byggestarter i USA, som vil gi inflasjon og økte renter. Råvarer styrker seg relativt til S&P.

Senere vil de økte rentene ta knekken på boligmarkedet, og da bør man være i renter mens aksjer/eiendom/råvarer blir billig og rentene stuper.

Jokeren er the FED. Hvor langt er de villige til å gå for å holde rentene lave? I ytterste tilfelle må de kjøpe nesten alle bonds selv om inflasjonen fortsetter?

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Republikanerne:

“I respectfully submit that it is time for you to engage directly with congressional Democrats on this matter,” McConnell said of the debt ceiling in a letter to Biden.

“Your lieutenants in Congress must understand that you do not want your unified Democratic government to sleepwalk toward an avoidable catastrophe when they have had nearly three months’ notice to do their job,” McConnell wrote.

“Republicans’ position is simple. We have no list of demands. For two and a half months, we have simply warned that since your party wishes to govern alone, it must handle the debt limit alone as well,” McConnell added.

Demokratene:

In Monday’s speech, Biden urged Republicans to clear a path for Democrats to pass that measure if the GOP is unwilling to take responsibility for trillions added to the debt by both parties.

“Democrats are willing to do all the work,” Biden said. “Republicans just have to let us do our jobs.”

“You don’t want to help save the country? Get out of the way so you don’t destroy it,” he added.

Det er flere grupper hos både republikanerne og demokratene som har en sterk interesse i å tvinge fram en liksomtullekrise. Neste uke antar jeg at vi får se hvor langt de er villig til å dra det :slight_smile: Jeg antar da at ikke noe skjer denne uken, som selvsagt kan være feil. Men, fordi det ikke er noen panikk enda så tror jeg at det ikke blir løst denne uka. En god liksomkrise må ha litt panikk før noen gir seg.

Schumer, on Monday night, teed up a vote for Wednesday where he’ll need 60 votes to break a filibuster and move forward with suspending the debt ceiling through December 2022.

That would require 10 Republicans to break ranks in the 50-50 Senate, something that is exceedingly unlikely.

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Dette er nok ønsket end-game for mange.

In a recent paper “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy,” she has proposed an “overtly radical reform” plan for the Federal Reserve to “effectively end banking as we know it”, to offer consumer bank accounts and become “the ultimate public platform for generating, modulating, and allocating financial resources in a modern economy, calling this plan "ultimately a more pragmatic and sensible response to the challenge of democratizing finance.” She has advocates expanding the Federal Reserve’s mandate to include the price levels of “systemically important financial assets” as well as worker wages.

Yepda. Må bli bra dette. Målet er å få fjernet den onde finansindustrien, la FED ta seg av alt. Med en rekke høyt betalte akademikere som beslutningstagere - ikke noen folkevalgte. Og selvsagt, bare troende marxister som vet at planøkonomi er best :slight_smile:

ps: hva hun står for, og hva hun vil gjennomføre som en del av en regjering, er selvsagt ikke identisk. Men dette er retningen progressive demokrater ønsker å dytte USA.

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Begge er bekymret for det store eksperimentet til sentralbankene

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Haha, Robert Kiyosaki, les dere litt opp på fyren… Forfatter og foredragsholder, det er det eneste han er god på. Noe som baserer seg på at han er så innmari god på investeringen, noe han ikke er. Rar greie det der, men markedsføring er alfa omega

Snakeoil salesman.

Denne frosken prøver BTD, igjen.

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OSEBX ser ikke akkurat like bearish ut