The OPEC and OPEC+ ministerial meetings are scheduled for 1st April. We expect OPEC+
members to roll over production quotas from April to May, and Saudi to continue with its 1.0
mb/d unilateral cut. This would imply total OPEC+ production cuts to remain at 7.9 mb/d for
May.
We now expect OPEC+ to start ease production cuts in June by 0.35 mb/d for both June and
July, as both Russia and Kazakhstan have pre-empted easing by being allowed to increase
production for February to April. In addition, we expect Saudi to ease its unilateral cut of 1.0
mb/d by 0.5 mb/d for both June and July. This will lead to total OPEC+ cuts easing from 7.9
mb/d in May to 7.1 mb/d for June, and a further easing to 6.2 mb/d for July before hitting the
5.8 mb/d mark in August.
Based on the original OPEC+ cut agreement from April 2020 the cut of 5.8 mb/d is going to be
valid all the way to end March 2022. However, we expect OPEC+ to continue to be pragmatic
and to try to micromanage the oil market. In H2 2021, especially in Q4, we see the need for
significantly more OPEC+ barrels into the market compared to what the group has planned for.
If OPEC+ are not willing to adjust its output policy the physical oil market will become too tight,
and oil prices overshoot.