https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/rystad-energys-covid-19-report/
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Usikker på om denne har blitt delt. Er fra 18e mars men likevel aktuell.
Price War Becomes Irrelevant
The coronavirus is clobbering oil demand in a way unlike anything the market has ever experienced. Oil consumption looks set to be down by 7 million barrels per day or more in both March and April from year-earlier levels, as economic and social life is curbed around the globe. And demand may well remain lower for longer than many could have imagined just a few weeks ago. Already, thousands of people have lost their jobs and service companies and factories are closing their doors, some forever. A global recession is inevitable, even as governments and central banks throw trillions of dollars at the economy in an attempt to avoid a depression and financial crisis. In fact, global oil demand is dropping so fast and so far that the oil price war instigated by Saudi Arabia is quickly becoming a sideshow – famous for 15 minutes, but now overtaken by an even larger event.
In the midst of this once-in-a-century pandemic, Saudi Arabia threw a fit with majestic consequences for the oil market. The Saudi leadership was upset that non-Opec, led by Russia, was unwilling to contribute a 500,000 b/d reduction on top of the 1 million b/d incremental cut the kingdom had proposed for Opec itself, in an effort to offset initial demand losses from the virus. In a huff, Saudi Arabia offered customers discounts of up to $8 per barrel for its April oil and announced it would add some 2.5 million b/d to supply. Already weakened, the oil price collapsed. It is still sinking with no bottom in sight.
The Saudi theatrics played out in a world uprooted by a pandemic that will probably last another two months or more, with devastating consequences for the social and economic fabric of the world – and oil demand. The virus, a global recession and a massive glut in the oil market would each by itself have far-reaching consequences. The combination of the three shocks make broad predictions impossible, especially now that the virus is paralyzing social life and business activity around the world at accelerating speed.
By singling out the oil market, though, some impacts become clear. The oil market is facing a full-blown meltdown, even assuming the virus is brought under control within a few months. Energy Intelligence now sees global consumption dropping by 2.9 million b/d in 2020 on average for the year as a whole – and that may well turn out to be too conservative. The model shows global demand falling by more than 7 million b/d in April year-on-year, following a similar decline in March.
That is the backdrop against which the Saudi price war quickly becomes irrelevant. After all, the world will see an epic surplus regardless of whether the Saudis offer steep discounts and try to push higher volumes into the market. The purpose of the Saudi move was to shock the system. That worked for a week (WEO Mar.17’20). Now the virus has overwhelmed everything. The Saudi price war may simply fizzle out soon – rendered ineffective in an overflowing market.
That is not to say that the Saudis are going back to market management: On the contrary, with oil below $20/bbl, so many others will halt operations that they may be able to sell more at smaller discounts. US shale producers are hurting, so Washington is paying attention. The US is talking to the Saudis about supporting the oil price. Texas is even considering bringing back the old powers of the Texas Railroad Commission to curtail production, its commissioner Ryan Sitton told Opec in a phone call to the organization’s headquarters. Prorating Texas oil production would give President Donald Trump a bargaining chip in efforts aimed at getting Saudi Arabia and Russia to lower oil production, Sitton suggested in a later interview with Energy Intelligence (IOD Mar.23’20).
Forget that the US Congress less than a year ago was actively considering a No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (Nopec) Act that would have allowed lawsuits against Opec under US antitrust law (EC Apr.12’19). Forget that Trump just two years ago scolded Opec for keeping prices artificially high and said oil should cost $30 to benefit US citizens. Now oil is below $30, but the winds have changed and the coronavirus provides an excuse for abandoning the principle that governments shouldn’t mess with a free market.
Market forces may turn out to be stronger than warped politics, however. Demand destruction is going to be so big that Saudi Arabia will have little ability or desire to manage anything but its own domestic affairs as oil income plunges, price war or not.
What Will Bounce Back?
The economic recession that follows the virus will be steep and has the potential to extend into a depression. Morgan Stanley sees US GDP down 30% in the second quarter and unemployment rising to 12.8%. Turning that around will not be easy. Oil demand is unlikely to bounce back in the third quarter or even later, as consumer purchasing power will be severely eroded. Industry will still struggle with compromised supply chains.
The surplus of supply over demand in the second quarter may be as much as 10 million b/d, and even with more countries starting to contain the spread of the virus, the surplus will remain enormous by midsummer. Refiners will have to chop runs, or the world risks running out of space in which to store all the unused crude and products.
What started as a risky Saudi gamble now may push the Saudi system into survival mode. The Saudis might want to pursue their strategy for a few months, just to see how this policy plays out. The Saudi strategy is based on the assumption that it can knock out expensive non-Opec supply. The virus is doing just that: Non-Opec supply is expected to fall quickly and dramatically. Some producers will fold with wellhead prices below $20.
However, the Saudi strategy is also based on the assumption that demand will bounce back, allowing prices to rise again once the most expensive supply is removed from the market. And that’s the tricky part. Consumption will certainly be weak for the rest of the year. Governments may grasp this opportunity and link bailouts and investments to the other crisis the world is facing: climate change. Their citizens may demand it. With societies and social structures deeply shaken, consumers may look at the blue sky and decide not to drive as much or take as many vacations, as they learn to appreciate their newfound life closer to home and value what they have done to combat climate change.
The outcome of so many systemic shocks hitting the market at once is unpredictable.
John van Schaik is editor of Oil Market Intelligence.
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Delta airlines som for under 1 år siden hadde obligasjoner med A2 vurderinger er i dag blitt nedgradert til junk obligasjon.
Aksjen er opp 21%. Go figure…
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Lempet ut equinor idag med 20% på to-ish uker. Akerbp leder an ned md 2-3% og equinor opp 4%, mens olja er ned 5%… tror jeg kan få kjøpt de tilbake lenger nede.
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Aldri feil å ta gevinst 
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Du få støtte av flere på 10 doller scenariet Krieg.
Skal legges til at Wiggen mener det blir kortvarig.
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Gir meg dessverre ingen glede av å ha rett i dette tilfellet.
Er nok enklere for meg å spå pris på 1998 nivå enn alle disse store meglerhusene som sitter på store og avanserte modeller. Det ser rimelig svart ut…
Men børsene suser jo oppover så da er vel alt iorden? 
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Litt på sidelinjen, men så absloutt verdt å minnes. Det er ikke kaffebar man driver…
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kan dette bli starten på en trend tro…?
“Petrobras sier i en melding at de vil kutte produksjonen med 100.000 fat pr. dag. Med det blir den brasilianske oljekjempen det første av de store oljeselskapene som varsler kutt i produksjonen…”
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Hjelper lite.Gedigen overproduksjon.Leste opp i går at det estimeres ekstremt stort fall i forbruk.Dersom Opec får til en avtale vil ikke det kunne påvirke oljeprisen før i Q3.Forventes at prisen på brent ligger under 30 i lang tid.750 mill på storage og man mener at dette skal øke til 1 milliard neste ukene.
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alt har en begynnelse mener jeg da…
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Det sier seg selv at man må kutte produksjonen når man ikke har lagerplass. Dette er noe store anlegg har prosedyrer på.
Jeg har selv sittet å beregnet produksjon mot lagerkapasitet ved flere anledninger tidligere i livet. Man håper at ting ordner seg før man går full og starter gjerne med mindre reduksjoner en stund før for å unngå å stenge absolutt alt.
Så det er nok det vi ser når aktører melder om at de redusere produksjon.
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Du fremstår stødig på området. Skal du inn i noen oljeselskaper? Eller har du posisjonener idag? 
Solgte meg ut av Equinor og AkerBp i slutten av Janaur og begynnelsen av Februar. Står på sidelinjen og venter på at oljeprisen skal kollapse. Skal inn i disse når jeg ser litt lysere på ting.
Det gjorde vondt å ikke kjøpe AkerBp på 90,- men jeg tror vi skal få de billigere i nær fremtid. Du kan lese litt lengre opp i tråden for å finne mine betraktninger.
Jeg har ingen fasit og kan endre mening få sekunder etter at denne posten er lagt ut 
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Å momse AkerBP til 70 og Equinor til 85 blir herlig 
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