Elliptic Labs 1

[timontti]

I notice a couple changes during last couple quarterly presentations:

• Their communicated PC TAM is now excluding tablet segment. It is mentioned in the HW sensor price slide however (competitors). But the overly optimistic previous tam of 1.1-1.8bn USD has been removed (it was based on 300mil laptops + 150mil tablets with 2.5-4 USD/unit).
• Maybe 150mil. tablets are sold annually, so removing them from scope has a high impact on the total addressable market (TAM).
• Actual TAM, using my assumed ASP pricing, is somewhere between 100-300mil € as I have calculated. See example below.

Calculating ASP. I’m assuming maybe 60% of revenues to come from Seamless and 40% from HPD. Calculation is based on the fact that at least 500m NOK of revenues can be achieved from Lenovo. However we do not know the maximum potential so maybe it increases conservatism to this calculation.
I’m assuming 95% of revenues to come from PC/Laptop/Tablets etc.

Revenues from PC. Illustrative example. It gives an estimate where 100% penetration into existing PC OEM products would give us ~60mil. € in revenues. However I don’t see 100% penetration as most likely option now. Maybe 40-60% is most likely after some years (?).

Following results based on EBITDA-factor of 20. IMO this would assume highly profitable business with only moderate growth prospects in 2026.

If we assume higher growth prospects, as should be the situation in 2026 if the company succeeds. Then we apply EBITDA 30x.

Some sensitivity checking. This is assuming the 2026 estimated 231mil. PC/Laptops in two key segments, as above.

Anyways, the company will be a very likely multibagger in case they get even 30-40% penetration within their PC OEM Customers.

[Barcelona1986]

First of all, thanks for sharing.

Some quick comments in this game of playing with the numbers…which I practice as well:

The 100% market should be without Apple.
The EBIT (or EBITDA)% should vary with the volumes…for example at the 20% figure I would expect the % to be very low – based on annual opex of NOK 100m+ – and certainly surpassing 70% at the high end with annual opex of some NOK 150m.
What would be interesting to know (in the future) is to what extent ELABS would be able to charge for the Android seamless app downloaded (or installed) - per unit.

[hitshaaaa]

And one more thing from this the Q2 presentation, Laila mentioned more upcoming devices with more than one AI function per unit. So we have one expansion in mobilephone segment and two expansions from laptops. Just speculating now, but it sounds very likely to me its lenovo and motorola (mobile phone segment), could you seamless be releated to these? I remember earlier in the forum there has been a discussion regarding Lenovo using their own/external seamless feature in some models. However as of now, nothing has been announced. And with that Laila confirming that they are in some of recently announced models. I mean its just so confusing

[solskimm]

Nyheter på gang?

[Amina]

Sikkert noen som har vært innom her​:rofl:

[Goldy]

Ikke annet at det var en mer overbevisende Q2 og aksjen er på vei til å reprise seg etter massakre fra Passesta/ Apollo

Må bare bli vant til litt oppgang fremover

[VentureCap_Mcap]

Elabs er ikke riktig priset, det kan vi vel alle være enige om. Elabs Mcap var på 1,5mrd UTEN kontrakter, KUN software klar for å stjele markedsandeler. Nå har de realisert utrolig mye siden da, og er priset til 1,4 mrd.

[Goldy]

Enig, IPO på 15kr og forrige emisjon på 22,3kr.
Har skjedd veldig mye siden da.

[Conda]

Mao først skal den ‘normal prises’ igjen før vi får en ‘reprising’ basert på hva som har skjedd siste tiden Den reisen blir jeg gjerne med på.

[timontti]

More speculation: As Laila is asked about AI laptops she seems to become quite relaxed and excited. Her “most excited” section in the short q&a.

Why didn’t she bother to mention upcoming Lenovo models as an example? But instead she started to discuss about the chipset providers, clearly focusing on Intel co-operation and quickly mentioning AMD and Qualcomm.

We know they hired a long-term executive from Intel earlier. That kind of top-level recruitment is done for establishing strategical co-operation. Was it like two years ago?

From The redeye webcast we also know how Intel team has been closely working with Elabs, likely for many OEM laptops they Will provide.

Just a suggestion, but they could be announcing something big together with Intel or other chipset providers in the CMD. Intel has been their focus for almost a decade, so that would be most likely option.

It could be big. So big that the financial targets will be updated.

Time will tell. Just throwing out this how i “emotionally sensed” Laila’s latest outcome.

Could be also the Seamless launch/2nd oem launch as discussed.

Intel confirms Lunar Lake AI laptop CPUs will launch September 2024

Intel’s going inside AI PCs, too — its Lunar Lake chip is coming later this year

Intel plans on bringing its Lunar Lake chip to over 80 new laptop designs from over 20 laptop manufacturers, with the goal of shipping 40 million AI PC processors by the end of this year.

And for The ending: do you remember what Laila said about entering to consumer segment during H2?

We are entering with force.

[BankruptBeforeLunch]

Det var priset utfra fagre førhåpninger. Disse låter vente på seg og ter seg idag ganke urealistiske. Jeg mener at priset på akjen idag er rettvisende, kanskje litt høyt. Men håper selvføgelig på oppgang så jeg unngår at selge med førlust.

[firsttime]

Intel will show their new chip after the CMD of ELABS. So as I see not big chances that ELABS can bring news before Intel - but i could be wrong (wouldn’t be the first time).

I still believe the chances are bigger with Seamless/2. Oem.

[timontti]

I agree. But remember how they have announced their software sensor integration with Qualcomm X Elite beforehand? Its on their website press releases, much much before those products are launched …

[firsttime]

Yes that is true - I agree. Nothing can be ruled out - exciting times ahead

[Conda]

Da fikk jeg utbetaling av nordnet for utlån av Elabs aksjer. Så mulig siste dagers opptur også kan ha vært bidrag med short inndekning.

[timontti]

@Conda

Joten on mahdollista, että myös viimeisen päivän nousu on voinut olla osa lyhyttä kattausta.

Volumes have been moderate during this week. Could be just retail or some institution buying slowly. But there hasnt been any open short positions in the history of the stock.

[Barcelona1986]

The public registry of short positions only cover single positions above 0.5% of the stock - so there may be and may have been significant short positions - in total - in ELABS. From private traders etc, this stock is not for institutional shorting, of course. Say 50 short positions of 100k on average - would make up 5 million shares. I have no knowledge about any open shorts, just saying it is possible. Technically. Without this being in the public registry of short positions requiring slightly above 500.000 shares short per individual position.

[timontti]

@Barcelona1986

The public registry of short positions only cover single positions above 0.5% of the stock - so there may be and may have been significant short positions - in total - in ELABS.

As far as I know, the total % of short positions is always public and is shown, albeit single positions below 0.5% are not revealed.

Just to provide an example: SEYE has total short positions of 1.8% (with sum DTC of 1.1). Only the position exceeding 0.5% is shown publicly.

[Boms]

Vet du hvor lenge aksjene dine var lånt ut? Det kan være oppgjørstekniske grunner til at det lånes aksjer også (kunder som har solgt aksjer som det er pant i f.eks. og hvor da kontofører ikke vil frigi aksjene. Meglerhuset vil da måtte låne inn aksjer for å gi de til den kunden som har kjøpt. Finnes mange andre lignende grunner også, men det burde være korte perioder 1-7 dager.)

[Prebs]

Not sure thats true for Oslo børs