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Elliptic Labs 2

Elektronikk
#954

Ja, dette innebærer både trusler og muligheter for Elabs. Jeg tror imidlertid ikke at Apple vil akseptere dette uten kamp. Det vil nok ta flere år før Apple følger dette påbudet fra EU, og jeg tipper at de (om nødvendig) vil ta saken gjennom alle instanser i rettssystemet. Dette er imidlertid et eksempel på viktigheten av at Elabs fortsetter å innovere og utvikle nye produkter – eller som Elabs selv sier, “moving up the software stack” til AI-løsninger basert på kontekstuell intelligens, der det utvikles AI-baserte use cases.

Dette viser at Elabs-caset ikke er risikofritt. For min del tror jeg imidlertid at tiden vil tale for Elabs. Som du nevner, er det en styrke at Elabs’ løsninger er softwarebaserte. Vi ser allerede i dag at et økt konfliktnivå i verden, med risiko for militære konflikter (som kan forstyrre logistikkjedene), mangel på råvaretilganger samt Trumps begynnende handelskrig med økte tollsatser, vil føre til usikkerhet rundt tilgang til komponenter og dermed økte priser på hardware. Dette vil nok tvinge frem en utvikling der OEM-ene vil søke seg mot softwarebaserte løsninger (når dette er mulig). Her ligger Elabs godt posisjonert. Så er det bare frustrende at Elabs-caset og aksjekursen, enn så lenge, lever to separate liv…

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#955

This one is very useful:

1 Like
#956

https://digital-markets-act-cases.ec.europa.eu/cases/DMA.100203

AirDrop: Apple’s AirDrop is pre-installed on all iPhones and allows users to wirelessly share files with other Apple devices in close range without friction or the need to download an app. AirDrop does currently not allow file sharing between an iPhone and third-party connected devices. Under the proposed measures, Apple will have to allow services on third-party connected devices to send files to, and receive files from, an iPhone via AirDrop (see Section 2.2 of the overview of proposed measures).

Close-range wireless file transfers: App developers need certain features to offer feature-rich close-range wireless file-sharing applications on iOS. This requires access to features such as the ability to discover nearby devices, the ability to transfer files via high-bandwidth protocols in the background, and the ability for received files to appear in the relevant applications (such as the photos app). On iPhone, currently only AirDrop has full access to those features. Under the proposed measures, Apple will have to provide third parties with access to all features needed to offer a featurerich close-range wireless file transfer service similar to AirDrop (see Section 2.4 of the overview of proposed measures).

Proximity-triggered pairing: Only Apple’s connected devices such as the Apple Watch and Apple AirPods can “magically” pair with an iPhone through a user-friendly process that automatically starts when an unpaired connected device is brought close to an iPhone. Pairing with third-party connected physical devices requires to first download a companion app and is not automatically started when bringing the device close to an iPhone. Under the proposed measures, Apple will have to allow third-party connected devices to make use of a pairing process that is as user-friendly and seamless as the one for Apple’s devices (see Section 3.1 of the overview of proposed measures).

But this ruling applies to almost all functions between devices… It funny that the EU regulator uses “magically” wording here :smiley:

103:

The proximity-triggered pairing feature enables the pairing and setup of Apple connected physical devices with an iOS device via a proximity-triggered procedure through a streamlined user-friendly process. Proximity-triggered pairing works outof-the-box: there is no need for the user to install any application beforehand and the feature automatically works for any connected physical device for which Apple has implemented support, including the Apple Watch and AirPods.

This is super interesting. Only can be done with a dedicated HW sensor or Elabs software in Apple’s competitor’s phone

104:

Apple shall implement an interoperability solution that provides third parties with access to the same proximity-triggered pairing feature described in the preceding paragraph as available to Apple, in a way that is equally effective as the solution available to Apple.

107:

To enable out-of-the-box proximity-triggered device discovery, Apple shall integrate a mapping between third-party connected physical devices and the expected contents of their BLE advertisements, the relevant companion app(s), as well as other necessary metadata (including, but not limited to, transmission power or security keys) into iOS. To obtain the necessary metadata for this mapping, Apple may set up a program for third-party connected physical device manufacturers to register their connected physical devices for the purpose of making use of the proximity-triggered pairing feature.

Will this eat the markets from the Tap sensor?

#957

Its like the regulators haven’t heard of Elabs!

I find this quite unreasobable on Apples behalf actually. They have developed solutions in their own «network» and are basically intructed to give that away.
Agree that they will probably fight this to the bitter end.
In the mean time all the other OEMs can become Elabs-customers!

1 Like
#958

Wickstrand Iversen er gjest i “AksjeSladder” i morgen. Kanskje vi kan se frem til litt bulling av diamanten vår:

“Lars Brandeggen ✰ @larsbrandeggen
12:21
Det blir mye snakk om teknologiaksjer og AI/humanoids/selvkjørende biler/space mm i fredagens innspilling der vi etter plan får besøk av porteføljeforvalter Audun Wickstrand Iversen som forvalter DNB Disruptive Muligheter og DNB Future Waves. Hvis du har spørsmål du vil ha stilt til Audun så post de gjerne her”

2 Likes
#959

Dette er ett av spørsmålene som har kommet:

“Magnus Liseter @magnusdl
20:05
Audun har tidligere snakket varmt om ELABS, hadde vært interessant å høre hans syn på de nå.”

#960
5 Likes
#961

Yeah this is not good for ELABS in relation to its tap-sensors I think. I get the principle of the DMA in trying to rein in the power of Big Tech, but what I can’t for the life of me figure out is how orders like these don’t completely ruin the purpose of patents and technological know-how. I have to assume that these things are patented by apple and that by this order the EU commission is trying to break down its protection.

It could also maybe provide an opportunity for the tap sensors in another way of looking at it. Third-party solutions now how to get the same access as apple, but if the airdrop is patented then you need another soloution to make the access. This would mean that something like the tap-sensor could initiate a deeper connection with apple devices. I am a little bit unsure about this tho. I don’t quite get how apple can be ordered to give away what is usually considered internal trade secrets.

Anyways I think its safe to say this will end up in front of the CJEU before apple implements it. Even when if it is implemented I assume it will be differently than what was directly intended by the EU commission.

2 Likes
#962

Den kunne de jo hatt på nettsiden til elliptic labs over eventer. Har lurt på om de skulle til London snart ettersom jeg er der jevnlig. Skal se om jeg klarer å få en invitasjon selv om det er alt for sent egentlig.

2 Likes
#963

Yeah I agree.

  • Its very likely the Android mnaufacturers will not start implementing dedicated hardware sensors for achieving this.

  • Software solution exists so this could potentially boost Elabs sales. In a bull scenario. Anyways its not possible to achieve “magical pairing” without dedicated HW or Elabs. Its likely that EU regulator doesn’t know anything about this if they even use term “magically” :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

  • I’m pretty sure Elabs has monitored this situation since last autumn and I suspect its possible that timing on mobile Tap sensor release was not coincidence. Can they turn this situation into a sales pitch?

  • Once / if airdrop becomes open, i think this reduces the iOS connectivity aspect from Seamless sensor sales, but it still doesnt affect the existing Windows PC and Android phone environment and these are the customers of Elabs.

  • could take 5 years until Apple lawyers throw in the towel so not expecting fast implementation

1 Like
#964

Yeah, hard to measure where this goes before its been tried before the court. Think its reasonable to assume that there is a time gap here either way if its positive or negative.

What i find a bit fascinating about the entire tap to share thing is that while this may influence the new mobile sensor in a new yet unkown way, it could be positive for the laptop sensors. The laptop either way needs a way to sense a iphone/ android in its vicinity, but this could maybe enable that the connection it makes now goes deeper without having to install an app on you iphone.

Finally I think there is something i was thinking back to Q3 presentation vs Q4 presentation. When asked in Q3 they answered no when it came to new products for the smartphone vertical, while in Q4 they said yes. I am thinking more and more that the tap-to-share might be an HONOR requested technology. Specifically because they also usually don’t release products before its introduced by customers which they mentioned in Q3 pres.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb-l2jWneCk&t=479s Looking at this video from the 7:30 timestamp there is an argument.

2 Likes
#965

Thanks, i tried to look for this honor session video a couple weeks ago. This is quite important and interesting :ok_hand:

1 Like
#966

Ja, den siden ser jo rimelig oppdatert ut for 2025. I motsetning til https://ellipticlabs.com/markets/laptop-market/ og https://ellipticlabs.com/markets/smartphone-market/, hvor siste lansering ser ut til å ha vært juni 2024.

Ganske sløvt! Kan jo håpe det skyldes at det er i påvente av mer moderne/techy nettsider.

#967

Yeah, i think so atleast. It’s either a very positive thing or a very negative one. Can’t really tell before we get some more details either from Honor or from Elabs about either solution.

But there is something to be said about the timing of both announcements. It could then be that this is the reason for how revenue surprised on the upside for just about everyone in q4.

#968

Det hadde vært fint om de kunne holde seg langt unna investormøter fremover nå. Hver gang en ansatt i Elabs åpner munnen, synker kursen.

#969

Like sikkert som at Hans Majestet velsigner oss med bidrag når kursen er rød :star_struck:

1 Like
#970

Stiger nå, er det du som handler, eller?

#972

ELABS dok.xlsx (969,7 KB)

Legger ved min enkle modell på ELABS til diskusjon.

Her har jeg tatt for meg et scenario hvor selskapet omsider skulle nå sitt 500 mill revenue target i 2027e.

Det hviler på noen grunnleggende forutsetninger:

  1. Stabil vekst i markedsandeler i smartphone-segmentet (Noe som viste seg knallsterkt i 2024, som jeg for øvrig mener er litt underkommunisert)

  2. Fortsatt sterk adapsjon hos Lenovo (Antatt andel fra 2022-2024 har økt fra 8,2% til 17,6%)

  3. Nye kunder i laptop-segmentet.

Markedet vil trolig ikke gi ELABS den verdsettelsen den kan “fortjene” før selskapet kan vise til en bredere aksept blant laptop-OEM’s utover Lenovo.

Gitt at de forutsetningene og estimatene skulle være i nærheten av sannhet så bør selskapet kunne forsvare en prising på 40-60 NOK for 2026e-2027e.

Setter stor pris på deres synspunkter

11 Likes
#973

Hey,

Quickly looking it’s a comprehensive model with realistic assumptions that I can agree with (ASP, market share, etc). You have done outstanding work and it’s really nice that you shared the model. (Need to look at it a bit deeper over the weekend).

I think the model shows very clearly that IF Elabs can achieve it’s ambition within 2-5 years then there is definitely room for a multibagger story from current price levels. It really doesn’t matter if it takes 2,3 or 4 years as the CAGR would be really nice in all occasions. For reference, doubling the share price within 5 years equals to 15% CAGR and there is much higher potential here within a clearly shorter time frame.

I agree markets are likely waiting for other PC OEMs for a heavier repricing. Risks remain elevated as long as the relevant PC revenue comes from mainly one OEM, but there has been a clear improvement in revenues coming from Mobile Phones so I have to agree with that one also.

I remain a bit conservative and expect revenue somewhere between 170-200m NOK for this year but it doesn’t matter as much as the growth path ahead. The expected path (=annual revenue growth) has the main impact on the multipliers that Mr. Market is willing to accept. This is very very hard to model exactly and therefore I often use some kind of bear-bull scenario analysis with probabilities to find out the “ballpark” where growth is likely to occur.

One interesting thing is the Tap-sensor within the mobile segment; what will the pricing be and how many OEMs would be interested within next couple years could also bring in some additional growth… I also agree with previous writer that it’s likely part of the upcoming Honor ecosystem to allow for seamless transfer between Honor/iOS/Android.

edit:
Lenovo has three stages in their PC roadmap that Elabs is often showing in their presentation materials. We are now at the beginning of stage 2 with the Seamless sensor whereas Stage 3 includes more AI use cases, which has been communicated quite clearly in some Intel/Elabs presentations. These include many of the remaining sensors available (automatic idenfifying and connecting to closest external display, etc. etc.)

image
image877×49 8.55 KB

Lenovo seems very committed to this as there is a clear long-term roadmap that is followed and we are right now seeing Elabs taking bigger role within the ecosystem. So I think this is a long-term holder’s case definitely. Something to wait for many years to come.

7 Likes
#974

Takker så mye for tilbakemelding!

Helt enig i betraktningene om at det er ikke så viktig om de lander på 400mill eller 500mill og om det er i 2026/27/28. Det viktigste er at man på veien får en form for bekreftelse/komfort om retningen.

Jeg synes det er spesielt vanskelig å vurdere selskapets posisjon relativt til konkurrenter i laptop-segmentet, og ikke minst faktiske standingen hos kundene. Faller teknologien og funksjonaliteten i kategorien “need to have” eller er man snarere bare “nice to have”? Det man vet er at Lenovo er langt fremme i skoene mht. å teste ut ny teknologi og innovativ funksjonalitet i sine devices, samtidig så vet man også at veien ut døra er kort dersom de bestemmer seg for en annen retning. Foreløpig så heller jeg mot at ELABS har en god standing hos Lenovo og at de fortsetter å være committed for fremtidige modeller. Dette gitt at ELABS sin andel i Lenovo sine solgt volumer har gått fra 8,2% i 2022 til 17,6% i 2024 ref. modellen.

Utviklingen i Smartphone-segmentet opplever jeg som svært underkommunisert det siste året, og at det har “druknet” litt i jaget etter flere kunder i laptop-segmentet. Da tenker jeg ikke på fokus fra selskapets side, men snarere på kommunikasjon fra analytikerne som følger selskapet - samt hvordan det siste året er reflektert i kursen. Omsetningen i smartphone segmentet vokste 143,8%(!) i 2024 og selskapet økt anslagsvis sin markedsandel i sitt adresserbare marked (ex. Apple/Samsung) fra anslagsvis 4,2% i 2022, til 6,8% i 2023 og til hele 15,2% i 2024.

Det er et ganske interessant trendskifte i markedet hvor Apple/Samsung er relative tapere mot spesielt kinesiske OEM’s som er på ELABS sin kundeliste. Synes spesielt den nye tapsensoren til smartphone er spennende, og det virker svært plausibelt at det er ELABS som leverer denne funksjonaliteten til HONOR.

Gitt de siste årenes track-record fra ELABS i smartphone-segmentet så virker det som ledetiden mot kundene i dette segmentet er langt raskere og mindre komplekst å navigere i enn i laptop-segmentet. Lanseringen av tapsensoren i smartphone-segmentet kan resultere i et økt antall sensorer per enhet. Hvis dette gjør at man kan øke ASP i segmentet fra anslagsvis NOK 0,65,- til eksempelvis NOK 0,90,- så vil det gjøre underverker for den samlede veksten.

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