Asså Embracer rapport och förvärv 
Var jo et lite oppkjøp i rapporten og :
"Embracer Group’s wholly owned subsidiary Koch Media GmbH entered into an agreement to acquire Voxler, the French development studio behind the “Let’s Sing” series and other titles in the music games genre. The Let’s Sing game series has a growing yearly profitable performance. The transaction will enable Embracer Group to make long-term investments into the next generation of music games products. Voxler, founded in 2005, based in Paris and Marseille, works with all major global music publishers. The studio was founded by CEO Nicolas Delorme that together with his team remain long term committed. The studio will continue to operate as an internal studio within Koch Media. The acquisition includes all trademarks and IPs. Prior to the acquisition, Voxler has collaborated with Koch Media as an external development studio over the last 10 years. The purchase price for 100% of the shares were approx. EUR 1.9 million.
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Virkelig kvalitetskjøp av Embracer dette!
The total consideration, assuming full earn-out, of USD 525 million is equivalent of approximately 8.4x Saber Interactive’s 2019 EBIT.[2]
Der ser man jo forskjellen på børsnotert og ikke børsnotert. P/E 8,4 utenfor børs. Inn i Embracer og fort verd P/E 50.
Og dette er ved full earnout. Ikke nødvendigvis slik at de når det engang.
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Inget litet och USA!
Pareto ser kursen +10% i dag.
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De bekreftet nettopp at Metro har solgt 200k kopier på steam ( på 4 dager ). Akseptabelt ?
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Og dette kommer bare i tillegg til alt de solgte på steam pre-order. Hvis estimatene på 700k + salg på EGS det siste året er i nærheten, er det ingen tvil hvilken plattform som fortsatt er storebror.
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Ser uansett ut som om vi må vente litt til på Biomutant :
På steam er det det salgstrikset som fungerer gang på gang. Det kan ha sett annerledes ut hvis rabattene var like store på EGS. Og de hadde en like god bestselger-liste som steam. Butikken er jo egentlig helt håpløst designet.
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Ja men de solgte vel omtrent like mye ( har sett estimater opp til 300k+ ) i preorder på steam . Det er jo brukbart når man tenker på at det normalt er de siste 2 ukene før release man selger mest i preorder.
Ja de har mye å gå på der 
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Nå har de vel til tider kjørt grei rabatt på EGS også, nå nylig rett før steam release?
Enig i at det har litt design-, og ikke minst oppdateringsproblemer. Men dette tror jeg slår spesielt dårlig for de utenfor topp 20. Topp 5 og forside er iallefall gull.
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Grats til alle som er inne her
Ble hyggelig
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Det ble faktisk mye hyggeligere enn forventet og embracer er nå min største posisjon
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Newsflash fra pareto. Full rapport finnes hos dem.
Welcome Saber Interactive
Embracer Group just released a stronger than expected Q3 2019/20E report with a beat on revenue, and operational EBIT of 16% and 30% versus our estimates and 16% and 3% versus consensus estimates. The strong results are explained by stronger than expected sales for THQ Nordic Games, Deep Silver and the Film segment in P-P & Film having strong quarter while both Opex as well as operational D&A is higher than we expected. For THQ Nordic Games sales grew 36% y/y with Wreckfest for console and Darksiders Genesis as major revenue drivers, Remnant: from the Ashes yielding additional royalties’ payments as well as strong back catalogue sales for franchises like Darksiders. The strong sales in Deep Silver, 65% y/y, Shenmue III is mentioned as the principal revenue driver, which in our view must been in the form of guarantee fee from EPIC or the Game having sold well physically which is not unlikely as core fans might have been aiming for the collectors editions. Otherwise, as expected Metro Exodus remained strong as well as other notable back catalog titles such as Kingdom Come Deliverance and Outward. Coffee Stain sales came in short as there have been no promotions for Satisfactory on ESG and the content update, scheduled for December 2019, was delayed due to technical complexity, but was has been released in January with satisfactory results. Revenue split owned games/publishing title was 79%/ 21% and new releases/ back catalogue 35% / 65% of which new releases for the quarter came in at SEK 291m which indicate that revenues for Shenmue III and Darksiders Genesis was higher than our estimates, most likely reflecting favorable terms for the deals with EGS and Google Stadia. The share of digital sales was 69%. Partner Publishing and Film had a better than expect quarter as the Film segment had its best quarter ever, driven by new releases and contributions from acquired companies as well as Koch Medias distribution of the German version of Oscar-winning sensation Parasite, which also triggered higher D&A. On games pipeline, Embracer now say it has 96 projects in pipeline, up from 86 last quarter, and SEK 373m was invested in games projects during the quarter and the group now have SEK 1.75bn at balance sheet in ongoing projects. No material news is announced about the pipeline and release date for Biomutant will be communicated when the team are ready. Additionally, Embracer still has the ambition to have at least two AAA games ready for release in the next financial but states “we can never be completely sure of development schedules and deadlines year” which in our view sound like potential delays. On M&A, as we expected Embracer were closed to strike in the US and now it announced it acquires US based Saber Interactive, a leading game developer and publisher for and initial consideration of USD 150m plus a potential maximum earn-out of USD 375m. Post-closing Saber will form a fifth operating group and Saber Interactive’s co-founders and owners, Matthew Karch and Andrey Iones, will jointly become Embracer Group’s second largest shareholder in Embracer. Assuming full earn-out, of USD 525m is equivalent of approximately 8.4x Saber Interactive’s 2019 EBIT. (see more info below). In total, Q3 results are strong and we will need to raise estimates for current fiscal year, 19/20E, although we need more information before deciding on total changes for 2020/21E as we need to consider release schedule for larger projects, potential platform deals and the acquisition of Saber Interactive which had a EBIT USD 62m in 2019 representing ~35% of the operational EBIT we have for 2020/21E. Given another solid report on numbers, a long-awaited US acquisition for done at accretive multiples and adding growth prospects as we expect share to trade well today, +10%. Buy TP SEK 105.
Key takeaways
- Net revenue came in at SEK 1509m vs our estimate of SEK 1298m and consensus of SEK 1395m, explained by better than expected sales in THQ Nordic Games, Deep Silver and the Film segment with P-P and Film.
- Revenue split owned games/publishing title was 79%/21% and new releases / back catalogue 35%/65% - New release in Q3 represented revenue of SEK 291m, indicate that revenues for Shenmue III and Darksiders Genesis was higher than our estimates, most likely reflecting favourable terms for the ESG and Google Stadia deals.
- EBITDA came strong in at SEK 518.4m, a margin of 34.4% vs our estimate of SEK 420m and consensus of SEK492m.
- Opex higher than we expected at SEK 243m versus our SEK 220m and D&A was higher at SEK 211m versus our estimates of SEK SEK 192m due to higher D&A for the film business.
- Operational EBIT came at SEK 302.1 m vs our estimate of SEK 232m and consensus SEK 292m
- Pipeline, THQ Nordics invested SEK ~373m in games development during the quarter and says it now has 96 projects in its pipeline, up from 86 end Q2, i.e a net of xx project has been added.
- Cash flow from operating activities was SEK 239,5m due to changes in WC of SEK -312m; and the group had close to SEK 2.8bn in cash with net cash position of SEK 838m.
- Amplifier Games will form the fourth operative group for Embracer and has become increasingly important vehicle for our investments into new IP-development, e.g two new studios has recently been set-up in C77 and River End Games.
- Saber Interactive is an independent developer and publisher of top-quality video games for PC, consoles and mobile platforms, headquartered in Maplewood, New Jersey. The group has 600 internal developers and games developed include work-for-hire projects, self-funded as well as co-published proprietary titles. Key IPs include World War Z, which sold more than three million units, Mudrunner and NBA Playgrounds and the group adds 4 announced and 8 unannounced development projects to Embracer Group’s portfolio.
- The Upfront payment for Saber Interactive amounts to USD 150 million, divided as follows:
o USD 100 million in cash; and
o 6,209,353 B shares of Embracer Group, equivalent of USD 50 million, of which USD 30 million, corresponding to 3,725,612 B shares, are subject to a one-year lock-up.
- The Earn-out payment of USD 375 million consists of:
o USD 100 million cash paid two years post-closing, which comes with an annual interest rate of approximately 1.6%; and
o USD 275 million paid in Embracer Group shares (together with the equity part of the Upfront payment, the “Consideration shares”), of which:
- 14,033,140 B shares of Embracer Group, equivalent of USD 113 million, issued at closing and vested 3 years after closing, conditional upon completion of certain projects 189,783 A shares and 13,719,168 B shares of Embracer Group, equivalent of USD 112 million, issued at closing and vested 6 years after closing, conditional upon completion of certain projects; and
6,209,354 A shares of Embracer Group, equivalent of USD 50 million issued at closing and vested 6 years after closing, conditional upon completion of certain projects, and the Sellers remaining employed by the Company 6 years post-closing.
- Report presentation starts at 09.00 CET - Teleconference:
- Dial-in number SE: +46856642692 UK: +443333009268 US: +18338230590
- WebCast Link
Deviation table
[Contact analyst(s)](mailto:lars-ola.hellstrom@paretosec.com ?subject=Ref: Embracer Group - Welcome Saber Interactive - Newsflash&cc=)
Analyst(s):
Lars-Ola Hellstrom, +46 8 402 5277, lars-ola.hellstrom@paretosec.com
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Nordea Markets höjer riktkursen för Embracer till 118 kronor från 97 kronor. Rekommendationen köp upprepas.
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Pareto oppdaterer.
From three to five legs in one day
The Q3 2019/20 results were strong, beating our and consensus operational EBIT estimates by 30% and 3%, respectively. However, the results were overshadowed by yet another accretive acquisition – Saber Interactive – which in addition to being struck at an attractive level of 8.5x EV/EBIT 2019 based on the total consideration of USD 525m adds strong complementary skills and proprietary technology in multiplayer / co-op games and a games as a service (GaaS) business model that can be leveraged throughout the group. The acquisition adds 12% to sales and 30% to operational EBIT to our “legacy Embracer” estimates for 2020/21E (calendar 2020E) with an even larger impact in 2021/22E. We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our target price to SEK 128 (105).
Expanding in all possible ways
On the reporting day, fourth and fifth operating units were formed and added to the group, first Amplifier Game Invest, which is responsible for scouting the market for talented studios that will add to long-term growth prospects, and then Saber Interactive, which brings an additional US presence, a renowned work-for-hire business, successful IPs in World War Z, NBA Playgrounds and MudRunner, a 12-project-strong pipeline, 590 skilled developers in low-cost countries, proprietary technology, strong knowledge within multiplayer/co-op games and a seasoned management team, all to be used to leverage Embracer’s vast IP portfolio. In addition to this, Embracer has recently set up a total of five studios built around seasoned industry professionals with results likely to show in calendar 2022-23. Finally, Embracer has been able to recruit David Gardner to its Board, who brings unique experience from the gaming industry that will prove invaluable for future expansion.
Buy reiterated with a higher target price of SEK 128 (105)
Our TP is based on 19x average EV/EBIT 2020/21E-2021/22E, reflecting a growth and M&A premium to global peers and Western majors.
[Contact analyst(s)](mailto:lars-ola.hellstrom@paretosec.com ?subject=Ref: Embracer Group - From three to five legs in one day - Update&cc=)
Analyst(s):
Lars-Ola Hellstrom, +46 8 402 5277, lars-ola.hellstrom@paretosec.com
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