Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Fedmebehandling som investering

Forsåvidt litt festlig at reta får denne buzzen.

Hvis vi snakker om rent lean mass loss så ser lista (med alle vanlige apples, pears, kiwis forbehold) ca. sånn her ut:

Pemvidutide (Altimmune): 21%

Tirzepatide (Eli Lilly): 25%

Semaglutide (Novo): 35%

Retatrutide (Lilly): 38% (merk: dette er ikke selskapets egne tall, men noe jeg har lest i en eller annen analyse et eller annet sted)

Så hvis man blir “ripped” av reta, så er det bare fordi alt fettet på kroppen er gone.

Forbehold: La oss vente å se hvordan tallene blir etter x antall fase III’er nå i vår. Rent teknisk så burde reta fungere bra mht lean mass loss, pga glukagon-komponenten, som altså virker direkte i lever og øker forbrenning (i motsetning til glp1/gip/amylin), men forholdstallene mellom analogene glp1/gip/gluc kan også bety at gluc-delen blir for beskjeden.

Kan det være at pemvidutide får et løft pga dette? Altså, pemvi er 1:1 glp1/glukagon, mens reta er glp1 > gip > glukagon i et estimert 3:2:1 forhold. Pemvi er meg bekjent medikamentet der ute med høyeste forhold av glukagon til glp1.

Siden vi er på naked mole rats, så forutser jeg at pemvi-looken blir omtrent sånn her:

1 Like

image

https://x.com/EricTopol/status/2020973763509264816

https://www.cell.com/cell-metabolism/abstract/S1550-4131(26)00008-2

3 Likes

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-taltz-ixekizumab-and-zepbound-tirzepatide-used-together-0

2 Likes

Zealand meldte i callen her forleden at fase II petrelintid-data i obesity kommer i løpet av q1.

Tror markedet blir skuffa, ev. at utfallet blir “meh”, alternativt. at resultatene vil være bedre enn markedsreaksjonen tilsier.

Hvorfor?

ZUPREME-1 (studiens navn) har 50/50 damer/menn, mange andre studier har ofte en overvekt (pun not intended) kvinner, som tilsynelatende mister mer vekt (enn menn) på inkretiner. Kvalifisert gjetning er at dette også gjelder for amylinanaloger. Så efficacy at first glance vil være lavere enn om det var flere kvinner enn menn i studien (slik det f.eks var for orforglipron men også oral sema 25mg, mener det var hhv 2/3 og 3/4).

Studien er “bare” 28 uker med en extension til 42. Hva som skal rapporteres etter 42 er uklart. Vekttap til 28 uker er primært endepunkt. Gitt at Zealand har begynt å plapre om fase IIIb’er og mulige effekter utenfor vekttap så ville jeg ikke vært 100% sikker på at det faktisk blir rapportert vekttap etter 42 uker her. Og: Titreringa har vært fase III-style, så økning hver måned, pasientene i denne studien har faktisk blitt titrert opp i 16 av de 28 ukene. Zealand selv sikter mot en vektnedgang på 15-20% i en lengre studie men greia er at her kan vi ende på 10-11-12% pga studien er for kort. Markedet ramler neppe av stolene om det blir tilfelle.

Zealand snakker mye om at det skal være “bedre kvalitet vekttap” (altså mindre AE’s) enn ved inkretiner. Det kan godt være at det blir tilfelle men fase I-dataene for petrelintid er så sparsommelige at det er vanskelig å konkludere ut i fra dem. Gitt data fra Cagrillintide (NVO) og Eloralintide (LLY) så burde dette være tilfelle, men det er også 5 forskjellige doseringer som testes her. Det store spørsmålet er egentlig om det er dose-dependent AE’s, slik at maksdosen (9mg?) som testes blir for mye av det gode.

Det er mye som står på spill for Zealand her. Ikke at Zealand er en one drug pony, men petrelintid skal både ha helt ok+ efficacy og skikkelig bra toleranse (markant bedre enn GLP-1s) for at petrelintid blir en blockbuster alene / i kombo med Roches CT-388.

Så hvis ZUPREME-1 leser av med ok minus efficacy og kun litt bedre toleranse enn inkretiner? Blir fort en trist dag for Zeal på børsen.

Er ihvertfall ikke en avlesning jeg ville sittet tungt lastet over. Tror management har snakka petrelintid opp et par hakk for mye.

Btw, ser Danske Bank mener NVO vil oppnå målene for “non inferiority” i REDEFINE-4, og det gjør de fort. Men bivirknigene? Vanskelig å se for seg at NVO skal få seg en stor boost fra resultatet. Beste de kan håpe på (gjetter basert på tilgjengelig data her) er egentlig at CagriSema viser seg å være like bra både på efficacy og toleranse. Med det kan også bli til at CagriSema er 1,5-2%-poeng lavere på efficacy og f.eks har en tydelig verre bivirkningsprofil, noe som ikke vil være bra for Novo, obv.

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zepbound-tirzepatide-most-prescribed-weight-management

1 Like
1 Like

Kom over denne også på x

https://www.tavaresoffice.com.br/brazils-congress-fast-tracks-bill-on-compulsory-licensing-of-mounjaro-patents/

Samme rammeverk tydligvis også i EU:

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L_202502645

Kan være greit å ha ett øye på

1 Like

https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-oral-glp-1-orforglipron-delivered-superior-blood-sugar

2 Likes

Ser ut som du får rett igjen

Zealand Pharma announces positive Phase 2 results for petrelintide, an amylin analog with potential to redefine the weight management experience for people living with overweight and obesity

2026-03-05 19:45:00

Company announcement – No. 3 / 2026

Zealand Pharma announces positive Phase 2 results for petrelintide, an amylin analog with potential to redefine the weight management experience for people living with overweight and obesity

  • Petrelintide achieved up to 10.7% mean body weight reduction at week 42 (versus 1.7% with placebo) and demonstrated placebo-like tolerability
  • At the maximally effective dose, there were no cases of vomiting and no treatment discontinuations due to gastrointestinal adverse events
  • The data reinforce further development of petrelintide in chronic weight management as monotherapy and as a combination partner
  • Zealand Pharma will host a conference call today at 8:30 PM CET / 2:30 PM ET

Copenhagen, Denmark, March 5, 2026 – Zealand Pharma A/S (Nasdaq: ZEAL) (CVR-no. 20045078), a biotechnology company transforming the future of metabolic health, today announced positive topline results from the Phase 2 ZUPREME-1 dose-finding trial evaluating investigational petrelintide versus placebo in 493 people living with overweight and obesity (mean baseline BMI of 37 kg/m2; 53% females) for effects on body weight, safety, and tolerability. The trial met its primary endpoint, demonstrating that once-weekly subcutaneous injections of petrelintide (dose-escalated every fourth week) resulted in statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in body weight from baseline after 28 weeks in all five treatment arms compared to placebo.

Body weight reduction was sustained through week 42, with participants achieving up to 10.7% mean reduction from baseline using the efficacy estimand, compared to 1.7% with placebo (p-value <0.001). In the petrelintide treatment arm that achieved the greatest body weight reduction, 98% of trial participants successfully escalated to the targeted maintenance dose, underscoring strong adherence to dose escalation and a highly tolerable treatment approach. Accordingly, body weight reduction using the treatment regimen estimand was largely consistent with the efficacy estimand. Notably, female participants lost considerably more weight than male participants in this trial.

Adam Steensberg, President and Chief Executive Officer, of Zealand Pharma, said,
“Petrelintide has the potential to redefine weight management. Its placebo-like tolerability exceeds our expectations and, combined with double-digit weight reduction, sets a new standard. Key to unlocking the value of the obesity market and delivering improved health outcomes is a treatment patients can stay on. These results bring us closer to giving people the obesity treatments that fit the lives they actually want to live.”

Petrelintide demonstrated a favorable tolerability profile comparable to placebo. The treatment discontinuation rate due to adverse events (AEs) was 4.8% with petrelintide in the maximally effective treatment arm versus 4.9% with placebo. The most frequently reported AEs were gastrointestinal-related, the vast majority of which were mild. The proportion of participants across all petrelintide treatment arms who experienced vomiting was lower than that observed with placebo, with no vomiting in the maximally effective dose arm, whereas the rates of diarrhea and constipation were consistent with those seen with placebo and remained in the single-digit range. Nausea was less common than in the prior 16-week Phase 1b trial of petrelintide, which used dose escalation every second week, and the vast majority was mild. Almost no events of nausea were reported after participants reached their targeted maintenance dose of petrelintide.

No unexpected safety signals were observed with petrelintide treatment, including for alopecia, fatigue, and neuropsychiatric adverse events (e.g., headache and depression). The proportion of petrelintide-treated participants experiencing injection site reactions was very low and consistent with placebo. Trial withdrawal due to any reason was 8.4% across petrelintide treatment arms compared to 13.6% with placebo.

David Kendall, MD, Chief Medical Officer of Zealand Pharma, said,
We are very excited with the results of this Phase 2 trial of petrelintide, demonstrating double-digit body weight reduction with an exceptional tolerability profile and rates of GI adverse events comparable to placebo. These data reinforce petrelintide’s potential to establish a new class of therapy and redefine the weight management experience for people living with overweight and obesity. We now look forward to rapidly advancing the program towards expected Phase 3 initiation later this year.”

The final trial results, including a nine-week safety follow-up period, are expected to be presented at an upcoming scientific conference in 2026. The ZUPREME-1 data will inform the optimal Phase 3 designs and settings to evaluate petrelintide. Topline results from the second Phase 2 trial with petrelintide monotherapy, ZUPREME-2, which is evaluating petrelintide versus placebo in people living with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes, are expected in the second half of 2026 as well. A Phase 2 trial exploring the combination of petrelintide and CT-388 will be initiated in the first half of 2026.

In 2025, Roche and Zealand Pharma entered into an exclusive collaboration and licensing agreement to co-develop and co-commercialise petrelintide for people living with overweight and obesity.

1 Like

Ser dog bra ut på AEs siden:

1 Like

Var en ganske bred spådom da :innocent:

Markedet blir nok litt skuffa, ja, spent på hva reaksjonen blir. Skal ZEAL en tur ned på 200DKK-tallet?

Men resultatet er (at first glance) bedre enn “meh”, hvis man tar høyde for hvordan trial er satt opp.

Det vi ikke vet ennå (men nok får vite på call) er hvilken arm dette er:

At de bare ikke skriver rett ut at det er “max-armen”, tyder kanskje på at petrelintide som Novos cagrilintide faktisk har et tak på efficacy, hvor høyere doser slutter å gi noe vesentlig ekstra vekttap. Novo var jo ute nå på REDEFINE-4 callen og sa at å kjøre mer cagrillintide enn 2.4 mg ikke resulterte i mer vekttap. Så kanskje det samme gjelder for petrelintide? Begge er DACRAs, og kanskje dette er en DACRA-problem? Fase II’en til LLY med SARA’en eloralintid, hvor man altså unngår å targete calcitonin-reseptor i det store å hele viste jo dose-dependent weight loss hele veien opp til maks 20% på 48 uker, men med tiltagende AEs med på kjøpet (hvis jeg husker rett).

AEs her er kanon. Petrelintid er best in class på AEs.

2 Likes

1 Like

Så hvis de ikke har funnet på noe rart med armene sine her, så er DG3 faktisk 3,6 mg doserings armen…

hhv (alt i mg ukentlig subkutan)

1,2
2,4
3,6
6
9

Ser sånn ut ja (litt rart de ikke bare skriver det rett ut):

1 Like

Det skrives ingenting om plateuing (i vekttap) i pressemeldinga, men fra presentasjonen:

“Up to 10.7% mean weight loss at week 42 versus 1.7% for placebo; further weight loss expected over time”

Jeg gjetter platå på rundt 15% for petrelintid alene i uke 68/72 for en 50/50 menn/kvinne-populasjon.

Det er faktisk ikke så ille. For dette er (trolig) en drug du kan stå på resten av livet.

Og toleransen er gull i kombo med samarbeidpartneren Roche sin GLP1/GIP CT388

Edit: Bare en liten kommentar om dosene her. ZEAL har gjort et godt arbeid med dosene her. Det er jo pretty obv. at fase III her blir i rommet 3-4 mg / ukentlig. Så Zealand har truffet fint, mens LLY tilsynelatende har klart å sette dosene for reta for høyt / lavt (4mg og 9mg, men sweet spot er trolig et sted i mellom der)

2 Likes

AbbVie reports Positive Phase 1 Multiple Ascending Dose Results for ABBV-295, a Long-Acting Amylin Analog

2026-03-09 13:23:00

Gubra’s partner AbbVie today announced positive topline results from the 12 and 13-weeks Phase 1 Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) trial showing that ABBV-295 was well tolerated with a dose-dependent significant and clinically meaningful weight loss, compared to placebo.

  • ABBV-295 treatment showed clinically meaningful body weight reduction from -7.75% to -9.79% (least-squares mean) at week 12 (weekly dosing), to -7.86% to -9.73% at week 13 (every other week and monthly dosing after week 5)1
  • ABBV-295 demonstrated a favorable tolerability profile at all evaluated dose levels. No serious adverse events were reported1
  • Data support continued development of ABBV-295 as a potentially differentiated treatment for chronic weight management, with a non-incretin-based mechanism of action

“We are very encouraged by these clinical results. Obesity continues to be a growing global health challenge, with a well-recognized need for novel treatment options. These data demonstrate the potential of ABBV-295 to deliver meaningful body weight reduction with a favorable tolerability profile, supporting its differentiated positioning within the evolving obesity treatment landscape. We are very pleased with these results and we look forward to seeing AbbVie continue the advancement of the asset,” said Markus Rohrwild, CEO of Gubra.

Results from the trial
The multiple ascending dose (MAD) part of its Phase 1 study evaluated safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and pharmacodynamics (PD) of subcutaneous ABBV-295, in adults with a mean body mass index (BMI) of less than 30 kg/m2. ABBV-295 is a long-acting amylin analog that represents a mechanistically distinct class from incretin-based therapies such as GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonists.

Study enrollment mostly comprised male participants (88.3%). Different doses (2-14 mg), titrations and dose frequencies were tested in the study. ABBV-295 was generally well tolerated across all dose levels evaluated. The most commonly reported adverse events were gastrointestinal disorders, which were mostly mild, and predominantly occurred during the first 6 weeks of treatment.1

ABBV-295 demonstrated clinically meaningful, dose-dependent reductions in body weight from baseline, over a 12-13-week treatment period. In the ABBV-295 treated groups dose-dependent least-squares (LS) mean percentage change in body weight ranged from -7.75% to -9.79% at week 12 (for weekly dosing groups), to -7.86% to -9.73% at week 13 (for every other week dosing group and monthly dosing group after week 5), compared to -0.26% and -0.25% in the placebo group at week 12 and week 13, respectively.1

“Obesity is a complex, chronic disease that places a substantial burden on patients, healthcare systems and society, and there remains a critical need for therapies that combine efficacy with tolerability and support long-term adherence,” said Primal Kaur, M.D., senior vice president, global development of immunology, neuroscience, eye care and specialty at AbbVie. “We are encouraged by these early results for ABBV-295, which demonstrate meaningful weight loss together with a well-tolerated safety profile. These initial results further reinforce the potential of ABBV-295 as a novel therapeutic option for people living with obesity.”

Results from the single ascending doses (SAD) part and other cohorts from the MAD part of the study were announced previously. Full data from the study will be presented at a future scientific conference.

Summary of Phase 1 MAD Study Key Results 1 (Percent Change from Baseline in Body Weight at Week 12 and Week 13)

Cohort a LS Mean (95% CI) at week 12 b LS Mean (95% CI) at week 13 b
All Placebo -0.26 (-1.89, 1.37) -0.25 (-1.88, 1.38)
Cohort 3 (weekly dosing) -7.75 (-9.89, -5.61) -
Cohort 4 (weekly dosing) -8.70 (-10.75, -6.65) -
Cohort 5a (weekly dosing) -9.79 (-11.99, -7.59) -
Cohort 5b (every other week dosing) -7.76 (-9.82, -5.70) -9.73 (-11.79, -7.67)
Cohort 6 (monthly dosing after week 5) -6.74 (-8.70, -4.79) -7.86 (-9.80, -5.91)

a Doses from 2mg to 14mg were tested using different dose escalations and dosing frequencies.
b LS mean estimates were derived using a Mixed Model for Repeated Measures (MMRM). Participants were required to adhere to the dosing plan and those unable to continue treatment were withdrawn from the study with no further efficacy data collected.