The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia pushed the VLCC freight rate up sharply. After Saudi Arabia chartered up to 25 VLCCs, its freight rate has soared by over 600%, even once exceeding 400,000 USD/day.
At present, VLCCâs average freight rate has soared from 30,000 USD/day in mid-February to 210,000 USD/day last week, up 600%.
On March 13, a 15-year-old VLCC âPrincess Maryâ owned by Hellenic Tankers was chartered by Reliance Industries, with a daily rent up to 411,890 USD.
One of the main reasons that drove the surge in freight rate was that Bahri had chartered 25 ships last week, boosting the demand for VLCC.
Saudi Arabia has announced to slash oil price and boost production and exports, which has led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. The WTI oil price has dropped from 45.90 USD per barrel on March 5 to about 31 USD. From April 1, Saudi Aramco will supply 12 million barrels of oil to the market every day. In order to meet the demand of oil transportation, Saudi Arabia had to charter more VLCC.
Among the 25 VLCCs chartered by Bahri, 10 will head to the Gulf of Mexico and 4 are most likely to sail to Europe. Another 10 will discharge oil at the Port of Ain Sukhna through the Sumed pipeline, which transports crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea through Egypt. The oil may eventually be sold to Europe. At present, there is no VLCC to be used for the market of the eastern world. This is a clear signal that Saudi Arabia is competing with Russia to increase sales in the western world.
The number of chartered VLCC reached 92 last week, compared with 56 the previous week. In 2020, the average number of chartered VLCC is about 50 per week, which is similar to the weekly average in recent years. However, given the weak demand for oil worldwide, it is impossible to maintain such a high level of chartering in the next few weeks.
According to Goldman Sachs, the increase in oil production may lead to a surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April. The shipping broker Gibson reckoned that there is a possibility of 4.9 million barrels per day of excess oil production.
What changes will take place in the future market remains to be seen. However, what is certain is that it is difficult to predict the tanker market in the next few weeks. The development of VLCC market depends on the following factors: how long will Saudi Arabiaâs output surge last? Can Saudi Arabia and Russia reach an agreement? How many tankers will be used for floating storage? How much shale gas reserves in the United States will decrease and how fast?
https://www.e-ports.com/news/557ef33735384cc3b5fec1662d85a928
Jeg skjÞnner ikke hvordan bÄde FRO og HUNT nÄ er LAVERE enn nÄr ratene var pÄ 40-50k dagen. Ratene nÄ ligger jo over 200k dagen. Dessuten kom HUNT med en kjempemelding nylig som ikke hadde noen effekt pÄ kursen. Hva i alle dager skjer?
Helt uforstÄelig det som skjer med kursene i tank.
Det er en del short i FRO nÄ, vi vet jo hvordan det kan innvirke pÄ kursen, kanskje strategi pÄ Ä bearbeide kursen ned til feks melding om avtale mellom Russland og opec kommer?
Jeg aner ikke, men jeg kjÞpte mer FRO nÄ. Dette er vel bokstavelig talt penger pÄ gata. Skulle hatt litt HUNT ogsÄ, men tror den kan gÄ lavere (pga. teknisk). FRO har bare 15-20% av flÄten i spot markedet men sjefen selv sier det gÄr sÄ det suser og dette er en periode som normalt er den svakeste perioden i tank sÄ jeg tenker her at FRO skal vÊre min hedge mot krakk i markedet. Ja, det kan komme pÄ plass en avtale mellom Saudi og Russland som stikker kjepper i hjulene for tank, men selv et fall pÄ 50-100% pÄ disse ratene vil fremdeles gi rater som er hinsides ifht. nÄr pÄ Äret vi er.
Ikke sÄ uforstÄelig i grunnen.
Alle vet at disse ratenivÄene ikke er bÊrekraftige med tanke pÄ at SA flommer markedet med olje samtidig som etterspÞrselen er pÄ sterk retur.
Min mening er at det bare et tidsspÞrsmÄl fÞr tankratene gÄr gÄr i kjelleren da jeg tror oljeprisen ikke vil vÊre i contango sÄ mye lengre
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PÄ generell basis bÞr det i det minste vÊre et gult flagg at selskapene ikke klarer Ä stige nÄr de oppnÄr topp rater. Hva skjer nÄr ratene faller?
Og nÄr den meldingen kommer langt ute i april sÄ har de jo alle sikret seg enorme slutninger som sikrer historisk inntjening i Q2+. Da har de rÄd med at etterspÞrselen og ratene blir lave en stund inntill det stabiliserer seg. AltsÄ⊠oljetank tjener historisk med penger samtidig som alt annet taper penger om dagen. Da er det helt uforstÄelig at sektoren skal lenger ned.
Short robothandel med usikkerhet og lite hvermannsenpenger i markedet nÄ til Ä ta i mot?
Lurer litt pÄ hva som skjer nÄr verden nÄ gÄr over pÄ sparebluss og etterspÞrselen etter olje stuper.
Oljeprisen vil sikkert kollapse ned pÄ 10-tallet, men hva skjer med tankmarkedet nÄr det blir masse ledige skip pga mindre fraktoppdrag?
Hvor lenge kommer det til Ä gÄ fÞr verden og forbruket til folk kommer opp pÄ noen lunde samme nivÄ igjen?
Kan dette framskynde et grĂžnt skifte?
Er oljeĂŠraen snart over?
Vil det bli krig og en totalt destabilisert verden om Ăžkonomien til veldig mange nasjoner legges i grus?
Jeg kan forstÄ at markedet ikke tror disse ratene vil holde seg - det gjorde det jo heller ikke i hÞst nÄr ratene nÄdde en peak pÄ $300k dagen, men samtidig sÄ prises det inn et fall i ratene nÄ, mener jeg, som tilsier at nedsiden vil vÊre begrenset nÄr ratene begynner Ä falle. Dvs. jeg tror dette er indiskontert i dagens kurser og at nedsiden sÄledes er mer begrenset - skulle ratene derimot holde seg her oppe en uke til, sÄ tror jeg man begynner Ä ta inn over seg at dette kan vedvare en stund.
Man mÄ huske pÄ at break even for mange av disse skipene ligger pÄ sub 20k dollar dagen. Ratene mÄ altsÄ falle helt ekstremt fra disse nivÄene for at skipene skal gÄ med tap.
Det ser ikke veldig lyst ut pÄ mellomlang sikt dersom forbruket strupes og det for tiden handles mye olje for lager.
Det vil vel fordre at rederiene har en god buffer til forbruket igjen stabiliseres.
Men dagens rater vil jo gi et par meget gode kvartaler fĂžr det butter for alvor.
Er ikke Kina i gang âomtrentâ som normalt, mye kjĂžper de?
Han fÄr seg en fin tur dersom det gÄr i dass 
Fra Fearnleys weekly report:
While the rest of the world is shutting down rapidly, the VLCC market has continued full speed ahead in the week gone by. Itâs been a week of frantic activity, with rates shooting up and daily earnings in the USD 100âs of thousands. However, things have calmed down in the last 24 hours, and with that we are seeing some âprofit takingâ, and the arrow is tilting slightly down. That said, more than 2/3âs of the April MEG program remains to be done, and with the well announced production boost itâs likely to be busier than normal still. Although a correction may be in the cards, itâs also important to note that plummeting bunker prices is contributing positively. Steady as she goes.
Supercontango!