Full rappot hos Norne.
Slower start, but a solid foundation
Kitron delivered its 1Q25 figures yesterday. The figures themselves were weaker vs. our and consensus estimates, but broadly stronger QoQ and YoY. Defence & Aerospace saw strong growth YoY and Industry picked up in 1Q while other sectors performed worse. Although results fell short of expectations, the order backlog continues to improve. We still think that the company has more to offer, therefore, we reiterate Buy recommendation at a higher NOK 60/sh. Target Price.
Good results on relative terms, not quite at the expected level just yet
Revenues saw a 2.5% QoQ growth but declined by 5% YoY. Overall, the latest revenue figures did not meet either our or consensus estimates. EBIT margin of 7.6% is an improvement compared to last year’s figures, but more substantial gains were projected. It is the same story with the bottom line – it has improved both QoQ and YoY, but not quite up to the expected level.

Order backlog growth continued
Order backlog was EUR 525m at the end of the quarter, growing on the back of EUR 472m figure at the end of 4Q. The key driver was the Defence and Aerospace segment once again, showing an increase of order backlog of 79% YoY and increasing the most on absolute terms, while other areas remained down YoY. When comparing QoQ figures across the board, they show more modest changes, further signalling stabilization. We find the D&A backlog growth not surprising, given that most press releases for the company lately seem to be defence-related. Defence & Aerospace contribution to the total backlog now stands at 45%, compared to the historical average of 30%. This is materializing into revenue terms as well, with the D&A sector being the only one to have better revenue figures both on a quarterly and yearly basis.
Improved 2025 guidance
As communicated in the run-up to the report, Kitron’s 2025 outlook has been improved to be between EUR 640-710m (previously EUR 600-700m). EBIT is anticipated to land in the range of EUR 47-65m (previously EUR 42-63m).
Decent report leads to a more down-to-earth near-term outlook
All in all, Kitron’s 1Q25 report was weaker when compared to probably over-optimistic forecasts driven by the European defence spending euphoria. Therefore, even though we have adjusted our estimates somewhat downwards, it should not distract from the main idea. Figures and order backlog are improving compared to the previous year, laying the base for stronger results not only this year, but also in the long-term.
Buy recommendation reiterated at NOK 60/sh. Target Price
Given the increasing orderbook figures and significant potential of the Defence & Aerospace segment, alongside Kitron’s reiterated expectations of strength returning to most other segments by the end of the year, we reiterate our Buy recommendation at a higher NOK 60/sh. Target Price.
