En post fra Microcapclub.com
«I will only comment on news and reports occasionally for Nekkar, but given the mixed Q3 2024 report and the negative share price reaction, I felt compelled to share my thoughts on the main topics.
First, the Q3 figures were somewhat disappointing, with revenue at NOK 140 million (-14% y/y) and an EBITDA of NOK 14 million (10% margin). This performance was due to the primary contributor, Syncrolift, experiencing slower progress on existing projects and setbacks from losing two contracts (Darwin/Aus, Canada) earlier this year. The rest of the group companies performed well. It’s important to keep in mind that Syncrolift’s business has always been volatile between quarters. On a positive note, Syncrolift has won two contracts in Q4 valued at approximately NOK 220 million, and added NOK 500 million to its pipeline in Q3 (NOK 4 to 4.5 billion). They seem confident in maintaining its market share (of 60%) going forward.
There were two major highlights during the quarter:
- Fiizk performance and outlook: Nekkar disclosed the value of the two divestments in Fiizk, where Nekkar holds a 39% stake (with option to acquire the remaining 61%), at NOK 213 million. Keep in mind that Nekkar acquired its stake of Fiizk at an enterprise value of NOK 136 million, and now has made a gain of NOK 77 million (on a 100% basis) while retaining the closed cage business, which they believe are the by-far most valuable part.
Fiizk has already signed two contracts in Q4 collectively valued “way above” NOK 100 million and with good margins. Assuming these contracts are worth NOK 70 million each and an EBITDA margin of 20% over one year, the remaining business already generates NOK 28 million in EBITDA.
The slides below detail Nekkar’s strategic restructuring of Fiizk, and the expected growth in the closed-cage market. Notably, Fiizk is the only provider that has delivered closed-cage farming at scale, with a considerable cost advantage and a track record of over 20 systems delivered since 2014. Most competitors have delivered 1-2 systems.


If Fiizk can sell only five cages annually at 20% EBITDA margins, the business would be valued at NOK 700 million, given a 10x multiple. This represents 80% of Nekkar’s current enterprise value of NOK 880 million. In my initial case study I valued Fiizk at cost of NOK ~130 million. Fiizk is yet another example of shrewd capital allocation skills, as shown in the table below:

- Nekkar announced a revenue ambition of NOK 2 billion+ by 2027, assuming 100% consolidation of Fiizk, with NOK ~1.5 billion expected from organic growth and NOK ~500 million from inorganic sources. This implies an organic growth ambition of 15-20% per year from the LTM Q3 2024 revenue of NOK 888 million. Although Nekkar did not specify margins, management said that they anticipated healthy margins, which I assume to be 15+% given Nekkar’s historical averages. My sense is that management has a clear path to achieve this revenue ambition and is determined to reach it.

To sum up, I believe the long-term case remains intact, or perhaps even strengthened, with the latest updates on Fiizk, despite a softer quarter for Syncrolift. Overall, it seems all business units are making solid progress.»
(Ser bildene ikke ble med, men de er i presentasjonen fra q3 under fiizk, kapitalallokering og 2027 ambisjonen).