Etter min mening var det en uberettiget overreaksjon i går. Genentech-nyheten tidligere i uka har påvirker ikke Nykode, og C-04 avsluttes ikke fordi teknologien ikke virker, men fordi forutsetningen for studiet har endret seg pga Tivdak og studievarighet nå blir lenger. Det kommer i strid med Nykodes uttalte strategi om fast-to-market, og da tar de et strategisk valg om å fokusere midlene på de studiene man har kommet lengst i og som har størst potensial, raskest, i tillegg til å kutte kostnader så selskapets cashbeholdning varer lenger.
Carnegie mener at kursfallet i Nykode Therapeutics etter at selskapet valgte å avslutte VB-C-04 fase 2-studien for VB10.16 i avansert livmorhalskreft er en klar overreaksjon.
Meglerhuset gjentar kjøpsanbefalingen og kutter kursmålet sitt på aksjen til 20 kroner, fra tidligere 28 kroner.
ABG
BUY
Management repeatedly reassured that the discontinuation is neither data-driven nor connected to the Genentech deal and the partner’s recent R&D reorganization. VB10.16 development costs are expected to be reduced by a minimum USD 25m. NYK011 has also been discontinued.
Share price overreaction
Following yesterday’s announcement the share was punished by the market, which we believe was related to a loss of confidence in management, considering that C-04 was started up only relatively recently. The move away from 2L r/m CC was perceived as very abrupt. We speculate that management’s decision could be related to a shift in strategy after discussions with MSD and KOLs on the opportunities in CC.
Valuation update
Following the VB10.16 reshuffle we update our valuation. We remove the 2L r/m CC from our model and include instead a model for high-risk locally advanced CC. At the bottom line, we still believe that Nykode as a platform company has a good intrinsic value foundation from its vaccibody platform, but we cut our risk adjustments and postpone potential market launch timelines for VB10.16 and all partner programmes. Adjusting for higher risk, we cut the vaccibody platform value and increase the WACC to 13%. BUY, TP NOK 20.
DNB kom med kommentar i går:
BUY
VB10.NEO (Genentech partnership) . Last week, Genentech announced that it will close its cancer immunology research department. Genentech will merge its research and development efforts in this area with its molecular oncology programmes, creating one single cancer research body within Genentech Research and Early Development. The decision was “driven by shifts in the science of immuno-oncology”, but the company “continues to believe that cancer immunology is an important part of our oncology programs.” Nykode’s management stated that it “has not received any indications of the partnership being affected”.
C-04 discontinuation . The company announced that it has decided to discontinue the C-04 trial based on standard-of-care changes (the company experienced that after full approval of Tivdak referrals to study sites were lower than expected).
C-05 guidance . The company will later this year decide the final study design and when to enter the clinical stage.
NYK011 . It also decided to no longer pursue the NYK011 preclinical programme.
Negative share price reaction expected . We expect a significant negative share price reaction (15–25%) on the back of the decision to discontinue the C-04 trial.
De har foreløpig ikke satt ned TP fra 31, men skulle de redusere TP med tilsvarende de mente var berettiget fall på 15-25% tilsvarer -25% en TP 23,25.