Ikke utenkelig at det var gevinstsikring idag etter kraftig oppgang igÄr.
Fra NORNE SEC.
Type:
Result Preview
Anbefaling:
KjĂžp
KursmÄl:
150
We keep our Buy recommendation and NOK 150/sh TP on PHO stock ahead of 3Q report next week. There is a heightened short-term uncertainty over figures, however, long-term prospects remain impressive with continuous solid growth in the US, Europe acting as another growth engine and Cevira bringing additional cash flows as Asieris moves towards market with it.
Uncertainty over quarterly figures heightened ahead of 3Q
Photocure (PHO) will release its 3Q20 report on November 10th. Our Hexvix/Cysview revenue estimate stands at NOK 51m, which is somewhat down YoY and QoQ. Historically, 3Q had been a rather weak quarter, but this time it is likely to be different for the US, as some extra procedures could have been done during 3Q that were delayed due to shutdowns in 2Q. However, the takeover of business from Ipsen will likely result in lower partner sales, which is usual for a transition period, but also the return of Ipsen inventory will amplify the effect. We estimate NOK -23m in adj. EBITDA, which is a large negative figure, but is due to Photocureâs guided increase in costs due to the same transition from Ipsen. Some extra one-off costs could come on top (we include NOK 5m).
Key questions â recovery started in 3Q? what happens during 2 nd wave?
PHO was confident that after the lockdowns are eased, access to hospitals is restored and TURBT procedures are resumed, sales should come back to strong growth in 2H20. Still, whether the strong recovery started already in 3Q or we will see more in 4Q remains unclear. Another question is how the 2nd wave of COVID-19 affects sales in 4Q both in the US and Europe. The latter is going to be challenging, as Photocure has to handle the transition from Ipsen during a pandemic where access to hospitals is reduced and traveling is restricted.
Huge long-term potential despite uncertainty short term â Buy @ TP NOK 150
Despite the short-term uncertainty, we focus on the long-term prospects for PHO. Body of knowledge of Hexvix/Cysview benefits in the OR/surveillance setting are mounting and there is a growing consensus that bladder cancer treatment should include Hexvix/Cysview as a gold standard. In addition to strong growth in the US, Photocure took over sales rights in Europe from Ipsen, which will become another growth engine. Also, PHOâs partner Asieris is moving forward fast with Cevira, which should bring additional cash flows for PHO. Therefore, looking long term, we continue to see strong upside in the stock and repeat our Buy recommendation at an unchanged TP of NOK 150/sh.
7 Likes
Ikke godt nok for Ola dunk ser det ut til.
I intervju med Dan (https://pharmaboardroom.com/interviews/dan-schneider-president-ceo-photocure/) er han sitert pÄ fÞlgande:
âWe offered the Ipsen German Key Account Managers the opportunity to follow Hexvix to Photocure â a chance they all jumped at! This preserved the Physician/Key Account Manager relationship and ensured a smooth transition with no disruption to business.â
SĂ„ kanskje Norne har tatt litt hardt i her?
2 Likes
Litt usikker, husker ikke helt tallene, men de har varslet om at det kommer endel oppstartskostnader og eller adk. forbundet med Europa oppstarten.
1 Like
Korriger meg gjerne dersom denne er delt her tidligere.
Men en ny klinikk ble oppfĂžrt forrige uke.
Albany Medical Center
43 New Scotland Ave., Albany, NY 12208
4 Likes
Resultater fra meningsmÄlingene i fb gruppen i forkant av Q3 tallene.
Resultat fra meningsmÄlingene:
Totale inntekter Q3(142 stemmer)
51 - 55 mill. 45,1%
56+ mill. 37,3%
Andre 17,6%
(Norne) 51 mill.
Inntekter fra USA(80 stemmer)
24 - 27 mill. 38,8%
20 - 23 mill. 37,5%
Andre 23,7%
Norne sine anbefalinger :
Date Recommendation Target price (NOK) 06/11/2020 Buy 150.00 24/08/2020 Buy 150.00 31/07/2020 Buy 150.00 13/05/2020 Buy 150.00 27/02/2020 Buy 130.00 26/02/2020 Sell 73.00 04/12/2019 Sell 70.00 11/11/2019 Buy 68.00 05/11/2019 Buy 69.00
3 Likes
Vaksine er nesten klarâŠ
Verden 
Pho 
1 Like
Opp og ned gĂ„r det. Regner med at PHO vil hemmes av den Ăžkende covid-spredningen i bĂ„de USA og Europa ogsĂ„ de neste kvartaler. Men fĂžr eller siden mĂ„ dette âhelveteâ vel ta slutt og verden begynne Ă„ fungere tilnĂŠrmet som fĂžr igjen? Kreften tar 7-8 ganger flere liv i Ă„ret enn covid hittil har tatt. Og det er liv som ofte burde ha mange Ă„r foran seg, i motsetning til covid som hovedsaklig tar de som allerede har et langt liv bak seg.
2 Likes
Litt stusselig at ikke PHO og flere andre farma-aksjer holder tritt med resten av bĂžrsen idag. Faller villig og mye nĂ„r bĂžrsene surner, men er âmotvilligâ nĂ„r bĂžrsene buller.
1 Like
Kommer resultat i morgen tidlig sÄ folk aventer for Ä se hva det blir
Hentet fra FB gruppen.
Legg merke til, âPhotocure UKâ
16 Likes
Hm, litt artig da.
NB. "The following media includes potentially sensitive content. "
2 Likes
Overraskende vekst i cysview salget YoY i USA, tilsvarer vel en Þkning pÄ rundt 20%.
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Er ikke dette skikkelig bra da?
Ser ut som grunnen til at Cysview/Hexvix salget endte pÄ 51,1 mNOK er restruktureringskostnader som er direkte oppfÞrt pÄ partner, slik at partnerinntekter blir oppfÞrt med -40%, minus fÞrti prosent.
Slik at inntekter for Cysview og Hexvix reelt er pÄ 58,5 MNOK, mer enn de aller fleste tippet.
Det viser seg ogsÄ i god volum vekst (unit sales). Med 17% i US og 7% i Europa.
Det er i alle fall slik jeg forstÄr slide 11 pÄ presentasjonen
De sier jo ogsÄ kledelig beskjedent at de har fÄtt en rebound i US fra Covid-situasjonen, men det jo kvartal mot kvartal sÄ det er jo en 17% volumvekst sammenlignet med pre-covid, 3q20 vs 3q19.
Har ikke fulgt supernÞye med pÄ PHO siste tida, men jeg synes dette sÄ ordentlig bra ut.
Hva synes andre PHO-aksjonĂŠrer?
11 Likes
ATH Revenue i USA og god kontroll pÄ OPEX.
En del ting er litt vanskelig Ă„ vite hva man egentlig skal forvente om.
Veksten i antall skop utplassert har jo flatet ut mye mer enn vi hadde Ăžnsket, men er ikke mulig Ă„ vite nĂžyaktig hvor mye dette skyldes corona
September var beste mÄned. Tror ikke vi har fÄtt sÄnn mÄned for mÄned rapportering fÞr?
4 Likes
Norne sine kommentarer fra Q3 rapporten.
Anbefaling: KjĂžp
KursmÄl: 150
Sales in line; transitional costs not as high as feared PHO reported in-line sales and lower transitional costs for 3Q.
The transition in Europe is going smoothly, while continued growth will depend on the pandemic effects short term. Still, we keep our Buy recommendation looking beyond the short-term noise and seeing very strong long-term potential. Revenues largely in line, while transitional cost below projections Photocure released its 3Q report with sales of NOK 50m, largely in line with our projection. Lower purchases and return of inventory from Ipsen resulted in a negative impact to sales of NOK -8m in the quarter, which was also not far from expectations. US revenue was as expected, while Nordic and Ipsen fell about NOK 1m short of projections each. PHO incurred one-off restructuring costs of NOK 7.2m related to the transition in Europe. Adjusting for this, EBITDA was NOK -5.4m (taking away the additional transitional effects, EBITDA was NOK 2.5m), much better than we had expected, but we stress that uncertainty ahead of the figures was very high and we took a conservative approach. Reported EBITDA loss of NOK 13m was about half the loss we had expected.
Transition in Europe from Ipsen going smoothly.
Photocure took over sales of Hexvix in Europe from Ipsen on October 1st and indicated the transition is going smoothly. 100% of previously Ipsen DACH Hexvix-related sales force now works for Photocure and distribution channels are built across all of Europe. It is important for PHO to take over existing business from Ipsen, but even more important is the penetration of now basically non-existent markets for Hexvix like UK, Spain, Italy and others.
7 new permanent BLC installations in the US.
The company continued to place blue light cystoscopes during the quarter and 4 new rigid and 3 new flexible scopes were placed in the quarter, which is in line with 2Q and below historical levels due to the pandemic.
Preparing for growth, but continued short-term pressure from COVID-19. PHO expects continued growth in the US and aims to increase growth in Europe. However, the company acknowledges the increased pressure from COVID-19 due to postponed procedures, restricted access to OR and hospital CAPEX budgets reprioritized. Still, we believe in a very strong long-term growth story for Photocure and keep our Buy recommendation on the share.
3 Likes
Bare ukvalifisert synsing dette, men for meg ser det ut som om salget per mÄned gir en grei indikasjon pÄ nivÄ (2018 og 2019), og at sÄnn sett ser det jo ut fra februar, pre-covid og september at vi er pÄ riktig vei.
4 Likes
Det er nytt og har nok sammenheng med deres uttalelser i q2 da dem spesifikt gikk gjennom mÄned for mÄned muntlig.
Og ATH inntekter i USA midt i denne pandemien synes jeg lukter godt.
FĂ„r ikke sett presentasjonen live i dag.
Men dette er vel den beste opening vi har hatt etter kvartalsrapport i photocure pÄ lange tider?
1 Like