Er det noen rapporter om hvordan det går ved Kherson, eller helt radio-silence?
Harde kamper i områder som tyder på ar ukr har rykket frem. Russere som evakuerer plyndrer alt som ikke er skrudd fast.
Selv med 6,5:1, så mister Ukraina 40-80 pr dag…
Fra ISW nedenfor. Det er endel info som er selvmotsigende, så vil ikke si noe her er spikret. Jeg synes det logiske er å trekke de gode styrkene unna, med så mye materiell som mulig og så la de mobiliserte klare seg selv. Da er det styrker igjen til å forsvare Zaporizhzhia etterpå, når Ukraina kan flytte styrkene fra kherson til Zaporizhzhia fronten. Jeg har null tro på at de har tenkt å angripe over elven.
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson’s banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]
The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson requires that a Russian detachment left in contact hold the line against Ukrainian attack, covering other Russian forces as they withdraw. Such a detachment must be well-trained, professional, and prepared to die for its compatriots to effectively perform that duty. The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, assessed on October 20 that Russian military leadership may withdraw “the most combat-capable units” from the west bank part of the region to the east bank of the Dnipro river and leave mobilized soldiers in contact to cover the withdrawal.[5] Russian milbloggers seized on Hromov’s assessment on October 21 and claimed that Ukrainian officials falsely said that elite units like the VDV and marines are being replaced by untrained mobilized men in Kherson.[6] If Hromov’s assessment is correct, then Russian forces would be setting conditions for a Russian withdrawal to become a rout. Russia’s poorly trained, newly mobilized reservists are very unlikely to stand and resist a Ukrainian counterattack if Ukrainian forces chose to attack them and chase the withdrawing forces. The collapse of a mobilized reservist detachment left in contact would likely lead to a Ukrainian rout of Russian forces on the same scale as Ukraine’s rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv.
Russian officials have remained cagey about whether or not Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a withdrawal from Kherson and are likely continuing to prepare the information space for such a collapse, as ISW has previously assessed.[7] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dodged a direct question from reporters addressing the likely withdrawal and directed reporters to the Ministry of Defense on October 21.[8] One Russian milblogger noted on October 21 that Russian forces “will receive bad news from Kherson Oblast” in the coming week and that “November will be very, very hard.”[9] A Russian war correspondent told Russian state-controlled television on October 19 that Ukrainian forces outnumber Russian forces by four to one and that "there will be no good news in the next two months, that’s for sure … severe territorial losses are likely in these two months, but defeat in one battle does not mean losing the war.”[10]
Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for the dam attack, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive. Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to Crimea are absurd. Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Russian officials have demonstrated their ability to indefinitely supply Crimea with water without access to the canal. Russian forces will try to hold eastern Kherson Oblast not for the water, but rather to provide a buffer zone that enables the defense of Crimea and prevents Ukrainian forces from getting into artillery range of the peninsula. Russian decisionmakers may believe that blowing the dam will enable them to retain that buffer zone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on October 21 that blowing the dam could cut water supplies to much of southern Ukraine and would pose a serious risk to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which lies upstream of the dam.[12] The ZNPP relies on water from the Kakhovka reservoir to cool its facilities.
3 Likes
Ser helt klart ut som kherson fronten er i ferd med å kollapse.
Russisk osint er bekymret.
4 Likes
Jeg tolker det som at Russiske styrker i Hviterussland nå kan bombes med Himars.
8 Likes
Altså, at russiske styrker i Belarus er legitime mål, men ikke styrker fra Belarus? Gir litt mening. Gir lukasjenko en vei ut hvis han vil…
Åpner også for å ta ut flyplasser hvor russiske fly parkerer.
1 Like
Må si at jeg er mer spent på hvor lang tid det tar for kherson fronten å kollapse. Indikasjonene over vil jeg egentlig si er veldig, veldig snart. Når alle elvekryssingene er <30 km fra fronten, så vil disse bli hamret i stykker.
Russerene evakuerer og stjeler alt de kommer over.
Men jammen har de kjempa. Det skal de ha.
Bør i hvert fall sørge for at det er de rette som blir skamklipt og utstøtt denne gangen.
1 Like
De har ikke noe valg. Det er kjemp eller bli skutt av sine egne i henhold til flere kilder nå.
1 Like
Mer jamring. Det virker som om de ser på slaget som tapt.
2 Likes
Intet nytt er godt nytt!
1 Like
Virker som Ukraina er på offensiven også ved Bakhmut, skulle gjerne sett at disse Wagner-styrkene ble tatt ut - en gang for alle!
8 Likes
Uklart om dette er døde eller døde+sårede, om det er det siste kan jo ratioen på soldater døde være høyere enn 12/1?
Ok Georgian legion er litt bædass. La oss bare storme den stillingen ;D
3 Likes
Enig, selv om vi selvfølgelig ikke har et helt nøjagtigt forholdstal, så er der meget der peger på at dette er rimeligt at regne med.
Og det gør det jo så meget mere imponerende, med tanke på at der er Ukraine der primær er i offensiven, som normalt jo er langt mere kostbar med tanke på menneskelige ofre.
Selvsagt er der også områder, hvor russerne er i offensiven, men det langt fra i samme grad.
Ukraina har ikke lange offensiver. Russland derimot har det, hvor de kaster mobiliserte inn i etablert forsvar. Så antar at mye av de russiske tapene kommer der.
Når Ukraina går i angrep, så har de nok prøvd å ta ut russisk artilleri i området. Det gjør ting mye lettere. Også det der ute til at de leder via droner, så de vet hva de angriper
2 Likes
Jeg tenker å begynner å bli dritt lei disse observasjonene uten at «riggen» da foretar seg noe annet en å skrike drone. Det er en sikkerhetssone på 500 meter rundt hver innstalasjon på norsk sektor. De er alle utstyrt med en fast rescue boat (palfinger marine etc.) Denne skal kunne være bemannet innen 10 minutter til sjøsetting. Så er det bånn gass inn eller ut av sonen for å lokalisere de fartøy som er på radaren fra kontrollrom/heli dispatch. Hvor vanskelig kan det være? Her på valhall ( Norges sydligste felt. Kortere inn til Danmark enn Norge hvis evakuering av ymse sort) er det fullt fokus. Jeg undrer meg…. skrikes det bare på ulven for oppmeksomhet 
Hvis ikke. Dere har radio så meld i fra å innen 10 er båten på sjøen for å melde videre!!! Makan!!
Edit: posten hører kanskje ikke hjemme her så moderators får eventuelt flytte den der den skal.
9 Likes