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Russland/Ukraina debatt 5

Har du noen kilder?

Skal se om jeg finner dem, men det er Rheinmetall som på eget iniativ startet å klargjør vogner for noen måneder siden i påvente av Tysklands regjering.

Edit : Tweet med artikkel link.

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Se det ja,Ukraina har egen produksjon av våpen som når langt inn i russland.Dette har vi jo vist lenge,men det har vært stille om dette i det siste,de har vel produsert opp så de har et bra lager nå vil jeg tro.

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Sett inn den beste piloten kledd som “Zelenskyj” :smirk:

Brukt rett, godt fordelt i en sektor med mange løpende mobikser og lettpansrede ruzziske rustvrak, så er Leo-I godt rustet til å lage en remake av denne italienske kvalitetsfilmen fra 1980:
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En presis og stabilisert hurtigskytende kanon med god termisk vil bli bra for de realistiske spesial-effektene i filmen.

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Kilde

Hvis det stemmer med 10-15:1, så er det rimelig klart at det er Ukraina som blir sterkere av disse kampene.

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Arestovych nevner også den russiske økonomien i den samme tråden. Ganske heftig budsjettunderskudd, største siden januar 1998, inntekter fra oje og gass ned 42 % fra jan 2022 og mye annet snacks fra det russiske finansdepartementet

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India og Kina kjøper billig olje, videreselger og stikker av med mellomlegget.

To counteract the sanctions’ effect on budget revenue, President Vladimir Putin has set a March 1 deadline for his government to draft a new plan for calculating the price of Russian oil.

Jepp, det svir.

Der kom ordren fra Polen.

Helt sinsykt.

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Det er 18, ikke 486 himars. Det er snakk om 486 ammo podder.

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Polish Chunmoo launchers are planned to be based on a locally-produced Jelcz military truck with 8x8 configuration. These artillery rocket systems will also use polish Topaz battlefield management system. In 2022 Poland completed negotiations with South Korea to acquire a total of 288 launchers with 23 000 rockets, and production license for the rockets.

Trolig en tidligere oppsummering rundt dette.

https://www.military-today.com/artillery/chunmoo.htm

Ikke noen tvil om at gamle Østblokk land ser trusselen fra Russland som en stor trussel, og forbereder seg og/eller avskrekker med å ruste opp kraftig. Hadde vært bra om vi hadde vært litt mindre naive her hjemme også. Ikke sikkert USA har kapasitet til å beskytte Norge fra nord til sør om det smeller. Vi har jo også noen gass- og oljeinstallasjoner som må beskyttes for å holde Europa gående.

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Limer inn en liten write-up fra tilfeldig reddit-bruker jeg synes var interessant som bakgrunn for russisk taktikk, og om hvordan krigen kanskje ta slutt.

I have been a student of Soviet/Russian warfighting tactics/strategy for most of my adult life. Professional obligation.

The Soviets had the benefit of the best possible warfighting instructors in history: the German army. From that whole WW2 experience, they learned the following things:

  1. Even though defence is stronger than offence by over 3:1, it sucks being on defence, because the enemy gets to dictate the time, location, and tempo of operations. You don’t win wars by letting the enemy decide if he has had enough; you win by forcing the enemy to capitulate. Therefore, offense is far more important than defence;
  1. When armies get large enough, figuring out who wins is largely a function of math. Therefore, it is possible to “do the math” and figure out exactly how many troops (and their associated equipment) are needed to carry out a given operation;
  1. Defeating NATO means an offensive operation that starts on the West German border and ends in the English Channel. When you look at the distance between those two lines and you count up all the enemy in that space, you can do the math and work out exactly how big of an army is required to make that operation work;
  1. сука блять that’s a really big army! Far too big to maintain as a standing army; it would bankrupt the country. OK, so we’ll build all the equipment we need to make that army work (and we’ll optimise that equipment for the offense) and we’ll implement mandatory military service for all men, just long enough to get them trained on this equipment (and we’ll make the equipment and tactics simple enough so that a guy who got 2 years of training 10 years ago can still make it work). That gives us a huge pile of “trained” soldiers we can mobilize in a hurry and who can fall in on the equipment we had built up;
  1. Those tactics will, at an operational level, be based on echelons. The equipment holds a ton of fuel and ammunition, the first echelon steps off and fights forward as far as it can. When it runs out of fuel, it goes firm, and the second echelon (which has been following behind) takes over. That echelon pushes forward as far as it can, then goes firm, and the third echelon takes over etc.
  1. The army is sized such that, if everything goes right, the last echelon arrives at the English Channel. And if everything doesn’t go right, you reconstitute additional echelons by consolidating the remnants of earlier echelons into new ones and throwing them back into the fight. None of this silly Western-style “battlefield resupply” stuff! More teeth, less tail!

Yes, we’ll take more losses with this focus on attack and the somewhat less sophisticated tactics, but it is better to take more short-term losses and win the war early than to take fewer short-term losses and drag the war out for years.
And you know what? This is solid reasoning. The Soviet Army circa 1982 or so was fucking terrifying .

So much like you, I expected the invasion of Ukraine to be a cakewalk. Sure, the Russian army had nothing like the resources of the former Soviet army, but Ukraine is also a far smaller space than “all of Europe” so it requires less manpower and equipment to pull off a properly-scoped Soviet-style offensive than “all of Europe”. It was reasonable to expect that the Russians had done their math and had scoped the size of the offensive force accordingly.
…but they didn’t. It was massively undersized and worse, under-equipped to get the job done. Accordingly, it wan’t capeable of echeloned attacks. Instead, it tried something more like Western Adaptive Dispersed Operations… except that it had no logistics experience sustaining Western-style operations, and Western-style fighting is mostly logistics. So they got their asses handed to them.

And then in the summer, the Ukranians (who the West have been training for the last decade) demonstrated that they did understand logistics and executed a supurb counterattack.
Unfortunately, “understanding logistics” and “having supplies” are not the same thing,and the Ukranians were forced to go firm before they overextended themselves - and they weren’t quite able to get the job done.

Since then, the Russians have been throwing men into the grinder with almost no effect, while the Ukranians build up supplies of Western weaponry and get trained up on Western equipment - equipment that punches 5:1 harder than Russian. Which is good, because the Russians outnumber the Ukranians (much the same way the Soviets outnumbered NATO) so the quality of equipment should counteract the disparity in numbers.

I expect another Ukranian “fix here, strike there” summer counteroffensive that ends on the old Russian border.
The Russians are burning men and ammunition like it was 1916, but they cannot make those numbers good. Meanwhile, Ukraine has access to the entire production capacity of the West. Doled out in dribs and drabs perhaps, but it is still there.

Klippet fra her

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Ok, de hadde anbud ute for 500 vogner. Uansett. Polen gir gass :slight_smile:

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Godt oppsummert. Det forklarer jo hvorfor UKR nå har klart å få RUS til å starte offansiven sin ukevis før de planla. Ukr forsvarer pg dikterer når RUS skal angripe dem.

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Sjakktrekkene gjøres…

USA utplasserte destroyer med Tomahawks til Sør-Russland Engagement Range

Flyttingen av destroyeren til Bosporos kom kort tid etter at amerikansk etterretning viste at Kreml forberedte seg på en ny eskalering av fiendtlighetene i Ukraina, og planla å sende hundretusenvis av mobiliserte tropper på offensiven, og om nødvendig mobilisere opptil 200 000 flere mennesker.

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Blir ikke lett å ha de 300.000 soldatene de snakker om, når de mister 1.000 eller der omkring daglig:

Her er en ny grafikk (for meg i hvert fall) med litt mer detalj og trender:

:coffin:

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Ikke like seierssikre lengre, for 11 måneder siden var det jo ikke noe tvil om at de skulle ta hele Ukraina:

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Bare så det er sagt:

Denne biten er nok litt villedende.
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Britene hadde 95,675 drept/forsvunnet + 325k skadede i 141 dager. Så 678 drepte og 2300 skadede pr dag i 141 dager.

ref: Battle of the Somme - Wikipedia

Jeg finner denne interessant, for tallene på tapte vs tanks/apc-er, som er veldig mye lettere å ettergå ser ut til å stemme bra med at Russland har endret taktikk.
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