Starter som alltid med en klargjøring rundt all tekst i denne tråden. Tråden er ikke ment som en kjøpsanbefaling, som alltid må du selv gjøre deg opp din egen mening.
Seacrest Petroleo (SEAPT):
Selskapets aksjekurs er for meg en liten gåte da det er mye som taler for selskapet med god vekst i produksjon og nye brønner. Avtalene som er inngått nå sikrer at de har ryggen fri knyttet til håndteringen av forpliktelser vs. fortsatt vekst. Vilkårene i avtalen signaliserer helt andre vekslingsforhold enn dagens kurs noe som egentlig er gåten her.
Långivere ser altså noe som markedet da ikke ser ref. dagens kurs på 25 øre vs. kursmål på 5,7.
Kvartalsrapporten om noen dager vil kunne gi et avgjørende svar på veien videre både for selskapet og aksjekursen. For min del har jeg brukt mer tid enn jeg burde på å lese meg opp, men jeg sliter fortsatt med å forstå hva som er bakgrunnen for kursutviklingen. Hadde selskapet vært så ille ute som kursen tilsier ville viljen til å inngå reguleringer i låneavtaler vært fraværende, ikke minst på de vilkår som de faktisk har fått.
Ut fra mine beregninger er verdivurderingen holdt opp mot assets avvikende.
EDIT 1
For ordens skyld må jeg poengtere at dette er mine personlige oppfatninger, og ikke et investeringsråd.
EDIT 2
Ba Chat GPT om en evaluering ut fra siste ukes oppdateringer fra selskapet:
what is your take on valuation given a successful refinancing as indicateed tha last week?
ChatGPT sa:
ChatGPT
If Seacrest Petroleo successfully completes its refinancing plans, the company’s valuation could see a significant positive shift due to several key factors:
-
Debt Reduction and Improved Cash Flow
The successful refinancing would alleviate immediate debt pressures, especially considering the $300 million credit facility and $120 million Nordic bonds currently under forbearance. By extending payment timelines and potentially reducing interest burdens, the company could improve its cash flow. This would enhance operational stability, making it more attractive to investors. -
Market Valuation Adjustments
Currently, Seacrest Petroleo’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is notably low at about 0.1x, compared to an industry average of 1.2x. If refinancing allows the company to stabilize its balance sheet and reduce financial distress, it could align closer to sector norms. A conservative estimate might see the P/S ratio approach at least 0.5x to 0.8x initially, which would significantly increase the stock price from its current levels (NOK 0.25 - NOK 0.53). -
Enhanced Operational Capabilities
With financial restructuring, Seacrest can focus more on operational improvements and field investments in Espírito Santo. Their infrastructure, like the Terminal Norte Capixaba, allows for cost-effective production and export. Assuming stable production costs around $15/boe and higher oil prices, profitability could improve, potentially pushing the valuation higher.
Valuation Scenarios
Bear Case: If the refinancing only modestly reduces financial strain without robust operational improvements, the stock could hover between NOK 1.00 and NOK 1.50, given slight recovery in market perception.
Base Case: With successful refinancing and moderate operational gains, a P/S ratio around 0.5x is plausible, leading to a potential price target of NOK 2.50 - NOK 3.50.
Bull Case: If the restructuring significantly improves cash flow and investor sentiment, aligning closer to industry averages, the stock could see valuation targets reaching NOK 4.00 - NOK 5.00 or more, as indicated by some analysts earlier this year
MARKETSCREENER
MARKETSCREENER
.
In conclusion, while the successful refinancing offers upside potential, the overall valuation will still depend on broader market conditions, oil prices, and the company’s execution on improving operational efficiencies. Investors should be prepared for volatility but could expect a potential multi-bagger if the turnaround is effectively managed.
Presiserer at GPT heller ikke fungerer som en finansrådgiver 
Kom gjerne med egne meninger som argumenterer i begge (eller alle ) retninger
