Usikkerhet i Xbrane ettersom B&L sier opp avtalen om US-distribusjon. Call i dag kl. 11.
2 Likes
Xbrane blir med i Paretos svenske månedportefølje også i august 2023.
Begrunnelse (1 august 2023):
Xbrane Biopharma – Buy, TP SEK 345
Xbrane experienced a surprising setback in July with Bausch + Lomb (B+L) cancelling the commercialization agreement for Ximluci in the US due to strategic reorientation. Yet, the company remains x2 undervalued when just looking at the European opportunity, where we expect strong Q2 sales numbers (SEK 66m estimated) from Ximluci to be reported on August 29. The company beat our Q1 estimates (with just March sales) substantially by reporting SEK 48m from Ximluci sales / SEK 62m in total incl. milestones vs. SEK 12m estimated. Why is Xbrane’s first product launch going so fast? The company brings “copy” drugs to the market, which is possible when the original drug’s patents have expired (more specifically: biosimilars to biologic drugs – which are more expensive drugs than classical so-called small molecules and their generics). The market addressed by the first product, Ximluci/Xlucane is over USD 12 bn in US + Europe (made up by mainly two drugs Lucentis and Eylea). The US did not disappear as a market opportunity either with B+L’s strategic reorientation, we expect US approval by 21. April 2024 (or earlier) and that Xbrane will find a suitable partner or commercial sales organization. With a strong continuation of the launch in Europe, Xbrane is set to report the first cash-flow positive quarter in Q4 2023, and with this trajectory, to render 2024 the first cash-flow positive year
4 Likes
Pareto med oppdatering etter USA nyhetene forrige uke: “reiterate our Buy rating on Xbrane with a target price of SEK 278 (348).”
3 Likes
Samsung Biologics-bolag överväger köp av Biogen-enhet Samsung Biologics-bolag överväger köp av Biogen-enhet | Placera
Og litt mer kontekst om relevans for Xbrane. Fra dagens Paretorapport om X: “We would like to remind here that Biogen’s new CEO has expressed that the company is considering “strategic options” for its biosimilars business. Therefore, one could expect a spin-off or sale of Biogen’s biosimilars business, which could potentially impact Cimzia’s development timelines” - Verdien av Xcimzane er foreløpig satt til 0 hos PAS. I rapporten 3. juli skrev PAS følgende: “Due to the disconnect between the company’s valuation and its market capitalization and with that share price, we currently refrain from including other assets than Ximluci/Xlucane in the estimation of our target price. If market conditions change and/or as soon as Xcimzane enters clinical development, we consider including it.”
3 Likes
(post deleted by author)
Dem mistet partneren i USA, som er viktigste markedet. Veldig god kjøpsmulighet nå hvis man tror på FDA godkjenning og ny partneravtale😉
(post deleted by author)
1 Like
Kortsiktig trade som har solgt seg ut, så siger den ned igjen
Tipper det kan være at Ximluci ikke var nemt i Stadas q2 rapport, og det dermed er usikkerhet om hvor stor omsetningen blir i xbranes q2.
1 Like
Xbranes andel av omsetning ligger inne i Specialty pharmaceutical division, men uvisst hvor mye Ximluci bidrar med.
Business Development and Growth Drivers
STADA’s Specialty pharmaceutical division had a 24% sales increase reaching €432.1 million ($471.1 million) in H1 2023. Specialty drug sales represented 21% of total group sales. The company said that growth in the specialty division was mainly driven by increases in the biosimilars area.
In H1 2023, STADA launched Ximluci, a ranibizumab biosimilar referencing Lucentis, in several global markets, including the European Union and the United Kingdom. Ximluci was the first biosimilar to be developed as part of STADA’s strategic partnership with Xbrane Biopharma.
In addition to Ximluci, STADA has 5 other biosimilars, including Hukyndra, Silapo (epoetin), Cegfila (pegfilgrastim), Movymia (teriaparatide), and Oyavas (bevacizumab). Hukyndra, an adalimumab biosimilar referencing Humira, is available in some major markets and is expected to receive approval in the United States later this year.
2 Likes
Xbrane med Q2 i dag.
Det går saktere enn ventet å få opp volumet på salget i Europa.
https://xbrane.com/en/mfn_news/xbrane-biopharma-releases-interim-report-for-january-june-2023/
1 Like
(post deleted by author)
Ække ferdig enda. Svenskene vet å finne frem pisken når ting går under forventing
(post deleted by author)
Ikke hørt callen - men man kan jo håpe at Ximluci partner i US kan slukke bålet.
(post deleted by author)
5 Likes
Pareto: Ny TP 122.
Kan også nevne at Pareto kom med en oppdatering i går kveld der de deler mer innsikt i inntekts- og forretningsmodellen til Xbrane. Notatet er kvalitetssikret av selskapet, og de gjør rede for at salget av Ximluci faktisk øker måned for måned - mars (Q1) og april til juli (Q2). “Bottom-line: Actual product sales are growing and with STADA’s Ximluci organization becoming profitable, Xbrane’s revenues will start to be filled from the profit sharing and in combination with Xbrane’s own costs coming down in 2024, Xbrane’s profitability should be reached sometime in 2H 2024, or as Xbrane communicated before Q1 2025.”
Redeye: Ny Base TP 110.
Tilgjengelig for alle som registrerer bruker. De har en fin oversikt over triggere utover salgsutviklingen. Har de litt medvind nå så unngås ny emisjon før cash-positiv. Kommer ingen av disse inn estimerer Parato de trenger 100 mSEK, enten i en emisjon eller en økt låneløsning.
2 Likes
Nå ventes det at CEO Martin og selskapet leverer.
Og her var det han sa på callen i går om veien til cash positiv drift.
(post deleted by author)
1 Like
Jeg mener han selv bidro til å bygge opp for store forventninger i Q1-presentasjonen samt spesial call 25.7 når B&L trakk seg. Opprettholdt målet om 100mEuro omsetning før profit sharing tre år etter launch. Utviklingen ville være lineær fram dit. De ville levere batcher hver 2. eller 3. måned. STADA selger alt X kan levere. 100m i rammeavtalen med UK der de var en av to vinnere.
Lite av dette stod seg like godt etter Q2.
At de hadde en ulempe i markedet uten Pre-filled Syringe var også en ny og negativ overraskelse.
Så alt i alt er jeg skuffet over CEO Martin og tillitten er svekket. Nå må han og selskapet levere 