Between 2015 and 2019, for instance, Russia and Ukraine increased their market share from one-third (a value of $91.2 million) to almost half of all wheat imported by the UAE ($154 million), with Russia the origin of most of the wheat.
Nevertheless, ample grain storage facilities mean there is no short-term danger of supply shortages in the UAE. The bump from higher oil prices partly as a result of the Ukraine crisis should also help weather longer-term increases in wheat prices even in Oman where food-related protests have previously occurred.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the disruptive effects of the war on supply reliability and price may cause it to reevaluate increasing wheat imports from Russia to offset declining production in the kingdom. Saudi Arabia had only just opened its market to Russian wheat in 2020; this was followed by a seven-fold increase in 2021 albeit from a low base.