Lånt fra XI, fra SP1
Share price in the opposite direction of fundamentals
Conclusion
Since our downgrade, Elliptic Labs share price is down close to 30% driven by a combination of i) weaker than expected 2Q25 revenues hitting the operational scalability, ii) lack of news of sales to other laptop vendors than Lenovo, and iii) because the CEO sold 2m shares without any good explanation. Meanwhile, we argue fundamentals have moved in the right direction with 43 smartphone models launched to date vs. 32 in the same period last year and 25 laptop models launched to date vs. 13 at the same time last year. Moreover, we also note that the mix on laptop develops favorably with nine laptops launched with two AI virtual sensors with higher ARPU so far this year compared to one for the full year 2024. Also, we believe 2Q25 figures were somewhat misunderstood with revenue of NOK55m deferred to 2H25, including commercial, consumer and PC accessories (i.e., Lenovo). Consequently, we model with revenues of NOK166m revenue in 2025 and coupled with better-than-expected cost control (evidenced over long time), we see EBIT margins of 15%. Based on growth with the current customer base, we see this move to NOK210m in 2026 and EBIT margin to follow-suit to 25%. Thus, we argue the company is set for rapid earnings growth starting from 3Q25 and upgrade from Neutral to Buy and reiterate our NOK 13 target price. key trigger is any license agreement with a new laptop customer, which we argue will add to our current estimates.