Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Flyr - Småprat

@Martins

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No shit! :joy: De må komme seg gjennom Q4 og Q1 2023 også, før de forhåpentligvis tjener bra i Q2 og Q3 2023.

is the share price still not attractive enough? even short-term, considering the traffic numbers for August?

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For me? No. You may of course get some short term bounces along the way, but we just broke down from a bigger triangle pattern and I expect we will test all time lows sooner or later. The fact that the CEO openly says they are not afraid to raise more capital if need be makes me think there is a real possibility of it happening before christmas. It all depends on the Q3 numbers…?

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Everyone should see that they need more capital before christmas just from their Q-reports :slight_smile: Not enough cash to keep going in the short term without external help.

They need new cash within Q4, and hopefully more than 250M. If not they might also need another cash injection before summer 2023.

So in short, if you want to help Flyr gather that money, then owning shares will help them get a better price, but you will also have to pay with a loss for the new shares indirectly. I would not advice anyone to own Flyr at the moment, though I am not a financial advicer, so make your own mind up. :slight_smile: Looks like a clean 20%-40% loss is coming though, maybe more, maybe less, when they go looking for new cash.

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Come on, even such a low price is not attractive? 0.8NOK is not attractive enough (considering that the last EMI was at 1.2NOK)!?

No, as I said, we broke down from a major technical pattern and I said we’d test all time lows, which I guess we are doing today? You may get a bounce from here, but chances are we are going much lower in the long run, unfortunately :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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Det er hva neste emisjon blir satt på som er interessant.

I don’t mean to diss the stock. I like the company and I like their approach and guts to start a new airline during the pandemic. That being said, the reason I have been out of FLYR since 1.18 is because of this large triangle we have broken down from. I was going to buy around 1.04, but the momentum was turning negative on higher timeframes and once 1.00 was breached, there was a flush out and it turned resistance.

Now, considering the macro economic climate with inflation, higher energy costs and higher interest rates, do you think travel is going to be prioritized?

Sure, FLYR will probably have had a good Q3, but what about Q4 and Q1?

TL:DR - the triangle pattern has a measured move around 66%. Even though Flyr has fallen a lot, that would bring the stock down considerably from current levels. Short term there may be tradable bounces but this could be risky as a long position in the medium term [next 6 months].

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Flyr AS - Traffic figures for August 2022

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Agree. Just compare with NAS: considerably smaller decrease!

0,64NOK is still not attractive enough?

Not as long as it is likely that there will be a share capital increase here soon. I am thinking sub 0.50 NOK should be a good entry for a longer hold.

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considering that you sold for 1,2NOK less than a month ago :slight_smile:

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Nocturne solgte før Q2 rapporten som ikke var god nok. Etter det så har de også kommet med info som hinter til at Q3 blir dårligere enn Q2, så…

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Q3 kommer til å vise at de straks er tom for cash, så ja, blir ingen høydare :stuck_out_tongue: De må/bør ordne cash før den kommer.

What are your thoughts about NORSE? is there a potential for an upside (considering its present low price)? Why does not NORSE publish its monthly traffic numbers?

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Well, took one look at the chart and don’t really feel I have to say much about it… the stock is literally free falling, and judging from the size of the candles, it is going to take considerable time (months), before you can right that trend.

My hypothesis with FLYR can be applied to any airline company. Prices are going up, energy costs are rampant and interest rates are climbing.

In this environment, is travel something you’d prioritize? It would be one of the first things I’d cut from my budget.

So I assume Norse will also have to do a share capital increase, unless they have such a cash runway where that won’t be neccessary the next 6-12 months?

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NORSE should have enough cash but the demand for transatlantic flights is diminishing.