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Funcom småprat 2017

Eg trur verkeleg det. Utruleg kor kortsiktige folk skal være i den aksjen her då?
Alle veit at det er mange potensielle triggers.
Alle veit at Xbox-hypen kjem.
Ingen vil sitte 2-3-4 mnd i aksjen?

Det er vel egentlig ikke overaskende, det er historisk stor etterspørsel etter å bli med å hype og liten på Long. For å overbevise større og mindr investorer må de bevise at salg tar seg opp igjen. Gjerne også at de kan lage flere suksess spill også før de store vil inn?

Jeg var en av de selv, men med interesse for spill er jeg nok mer tålmodig da jeg får gjort min egen vurdering av CE og hvorfor salg og antall online er lave nå.

Nei, vi var vel litt naive vi som trudde at det fundamentale skulle ta over for det historiske >_<
… Og med det meinar eg at det er nærmast uungåelig at salet tar seg opp igjen.

Tror du har veldig rett i dette, men jeg synes også at mange har hypet det fundamentale og solgt bjørnen før den er skutt. Det er nok med på å skape urealistiske forventninger og påfølgende skuffelse i markedet når gode resultater ikke er SÅ gode som forespeilet.

Derfor er det fremdeles troen på hype som gjør at jeg føler meg trygg i aksjen…dessverre :wink:

Når de er vel overstått lansering av SWL, så melder USA om nytt prosjekt. Får vi nyheten om hva de jobber med i år tror dere? Hvis dette i tillegg tas godt i mot så er vi igang.

Jeg skrev vel før kvartalsrapporten at det må flere positive for å få i gang en oppgang, jeg hadde ikke trodd på nedgang og var sikker på at vi skulle over 3 kroner. Jeg tror også nå Oxford dekker inn hele sin short uten kursoppgang som normalt kommer av inndekning. Jeg tror også SWL og summersale setter i gang heliumballongen og at det styrkes ytterligere når de begynner med xbox hype og biome. Derifra går det slag i slag hvis det blir levert nogenlunde.

Så vi må nok vente noen mnd til, men det går… :+1:

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Det er rundt 50k som har spilt det de siste 2 ukene. Så de betyr at i underkant av 10% av de som har kjøpt det er aktive til en viss grad. En stor andel ga som følge av exlpoiters og andre bugs, i tillegg til manglende innhold. Det er jo lov å håpe at mange av disse returnerer ved senerer patcher.

Burde vel snart være på tide å kjøre et lite salg igjen, kanskje ved neste patch. Et helge salg med 30% hadde vært fint, en liten oppvarming til summer sale. Er jo en viss fare for å drukne i mengden i hvis de venter til summer sale.

No er eg nesten berre glad på Oxford sine vegner. Lat dei få alle aksjane dei ønskjer, til 2,04 i snitt.
Viss markedet ikkje ser verdien i Funcom så får dei heller ha det så godt, når dei ser kva framtida bringer inn for Funcom… Bankers.

Vi står saman i krakket.

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Har også stor tro på alt det du skriver her og jeg hadde også klokketro på å bryte 3 for to dager siden. poenget mitt er bare at man bør være bevisst at disse tingene foreløpig tilsier trygget på at hype vil komme mer enn at det beviser fundamendal endring og verdi i selskapet.

Q1-tallene er jo naturligvis fundamentale, men enn så lenge så følger jo også disse av hype. En overlegen andel av solgte spill er jo kjøpt før brukerne hadde kunnskap om den reelle spillbarheten. Etter dette har salget objektivt sett stupt og spillets fundamentale suksess (ift til aksjekurs) er således ikke bevist…ennå;-) Det gjør meg skeptisk når mange her tar fundamental suksess for Funcom for gitt allerede, men jeg lytter mye til alle her inne som gir kunnskapsrik info om positiver og negativer ved CE :thumbsup:

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Lettelsesrally er vel ofte ikke begrunnet i hype, men mer i det fundamentale. Jeg tipper det er en del mennesker som sitter og skjønner caset og at Funcom virker mer og mer som et seriøst, nøkternt og fremadstormende selskap. Poenget er at vel at de som er litt smarte, og som vil beholde ro i sjelen gidder ikke kjøpe Funcom slik som det blir herjet nå. Man kan skylde på shortere, mennesker som ikke skjønner caset, for høyt prisa, Jebsen osv osv, men konklusjonen blir det samme. Funcom aksjen lever et liv som mange pr nå ikke ønsker å ta del i. Et godt salg i summersale og en inndekket short vil nok trigge mer enn mange her inne tror. Når så de som er litt smartere og litt mer tålmodig enn meg kjøper seg inn, så går kursen opp, og så kommer hvermannsen som skal kjøpe aksjen når den står som høyest. Tenker nok et lettelsesrally ikke er så himla langt unna. 4-6 uker, så er vi helt andre nivåer enn i dag.

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Kjøper man forsiktig på vei nedover og er selv tålmodig og tror på Funcom 2.0 turnaround, så bør det bli veldig bra etterhvert.

Om man f.eks ser på 2 år så har det lite å si om hele avkastningen kommer i år 2 eller jevnt fordelt over begge årene.

Holder jo ikke bare å tro da…det må jo bli virkelighet også :wink:

Ja og derfor går du aldri all in :slight_smile:

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Det er ikke problem å gå all inn om man gjør det på kort sikt. Er jo flere som er all inn i Funcom?

Er jo selv så og si all inn i #Nano som du vet.

Når du får triggeren du venter på, selger du med profitt. Men ja, risikabelt er det :smile:

Problem og problem, kan jo komme en negativ melding som sender aksjen ned 80%.

På en melding som den vi fikk nå i Nano så ja, enig. På en melding om deltakelse på Lugano, som sendte aksjen opp rundt 10% er det jo mer safe å kjøre all inn. Men for all del, risiko ja…

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Hvor stor påvirkning vil Oxford sine shortaksjer ha på aksjekursen når dem skal dekkes inn? Tenker at 2% er ikke så vesentlig iffh til antall aksjer det er i selskapet, er det noen som kan lage et eksempel på et regnestykke på f.eks dersom det skulle skje et rally og aksjene må dekkes, slik at det er lett å forstå? Er fortsatt ny i aksjemarkedet så beklager hvis jeg stiller dumme spørsmål.

Kan ikke se for meg noen slik melding i Funcom. Måtte ha vært at de kansellerte konsoll versjonen av CE.

[details=RISK FACTORS]> Risk factors

Management has discussed the various risks in Funcom and the implications of these risks. The risks described below do not constitute a full list of the risks the Company is exposed to. Additional
risk factors may also impair the Company’s operations.
Revenue risks
Dependence on performance of individual games
If some of these online games attain low revenue numbers there may be a negative impact on future cash flows and the valuation of Funcom. Furthermore, the games in development are intended to
be funding sources for the development of new titles, and lower cash inflows than expected could also have an indirect effect in terms of reduced revenues, earnings and cash flows from other games and the future funding requirements of the Company.

Dependence on the attractiveness of the licensed brands
The success of the new games is dependent on the attractiveness of the brands used for the games. The developments of these brands are often influenced by factors outside of Funcom’s control and this may positively or negatively affect the performance of Funcom’s games.

Dependence on consumer satisfaction
The commercial success of Funcom’s games is to a high degree dependent on consumer satisfaction. Consumer satisfaction is dependent on the perceived fun factor, quality of service of the support and error correction services.

Rating risks
Funcom is, as a developer of mature games, exposed to the risk that rating agencies in the various markets will set the allowed age level to play the Funcom games too high or too low and thereby potentially limiting the addressable market.

Reviews
The commercial success of Funcom’s games may be, to a high degree, dependent on favourable reviews by the major gaming publications and sites. Should Funcom fail to meet the expectations this may have a negative effect in the review scores of its game and thereby potentially on the sales potential of the games.

Development risks
Launch risks
Funcom is well aware of both the launch risks of online games as the games ramp up from having no players to hundreds of thousands of players in weeks, and the challenge in creating game experiences and game worlds that appeal for year after year.

Delay of product releases
For the current development projects, Funcom has a strong focus on making plans, analyzing risks, estimating time needed in each project phase and measuring progress. There is, however, an inherent development timeline risk in all software development, including game software development, and there is no assurance that development schedules will be held. If Funcom does not manage to release games at the planned dates, the development budgets of the games may increase. There is also a risk that competitors will gain a foothold in the market at the expense of Funcom or that the games will be less competitive when launched due to advances of competitors, making users less willing to spend additional time and money on new games from Funcom.

Unsuccessful projects under development
Currently, there is a number of games in the same genre as Funcom’s games in development and operation worldwide. Hence, consumers have and will have a number of options to choose from. Through the history of online games, the market has never accommodated many top-selling products at any one time. Even though the number of serious competitors to Funcom in the multiplayer online game space, developers with the necessary skills, experience, and technological and financial resources in place, is limited, there is a risk that one or more of Funcom’s games could be unsuccessful.

Difficulties in recruiting and loss of key employees
Funcom is dependent on the ability to recruit, motivate and retain highly skilled technical, managerial and marketing personnel. Funcom may experience difficulties in recruiting, motivating and retaining the necessary expertise and key employees, or may need to pay higher compensation, which could adversely affect operating results. Further, it should be taken into consideration that work permits can be difficult to obtain. Also there is a risk of losing vital information if key employees, for various reasons, leave Funcom.

External parties
Funcom’s success depends also partly on the ability of the Company’s partners to effectively fulfil their commitments. Funcom has partners in the areas of hosting and server administration, billing, publishing, sales and distribution, hardware as well as development of technology and games. Difficulties in enforcing the Company’s intellectual property and proprietary rights Funcom’s success depends on its proprietary game technology. Funcom relies on a combination of trade secret, copyright and trademark laws, non-disclosure agreements and contractual provisions to protect its proprietary rights. International copyright and trademark laws protect Funcom’s technology. Existing trade secrets and copyright laws afford only limited protection, and unauthorized parties may attempt to copy aspects of Funcom’s proprietary rights or to obtain and use information and technology that Funcom regards as proprietary. In addition, the laws of some foreign jurisdictions do not protect Funcom’s proprietary rights in the same manner and to the same extent as the laws of the US and Norway do. There can be no assurance that the steps taken by Funcom to protect its proprietary rights will be adequate.

Intellectual Property Rights of others
Funcom operates in a competitive industry. Technology is evolving at a fast pace and innovating companies develop solutions in relatively close technological proximity. This poses the risk that the Company could inadvertently encroach upon the protected rights of others, including rights protected by patents. This is the nature of the industry in which Funcom operates. Funcom is aware of the fact that there may be patents potentially forming basis of infringement claims. US patents and/or litigation in the US are particularly worrisome because there are a large number of US software patents in existence. There is also to a greater extent a culture for opportunistic patent litigation in the US. Infringement on copyrights, design rights and trademark law could surface as well. There is always an inherent risk of substantial claims related to infringement of intellectual property rights. Such claims could also have a negative impact on the various contracts of the company because infringement of intellectual property rights is likely to be construed as a material breach of contract.

Technical risks
Technological risks
The successful operation of an online game, depends on a large number of complicated hardware and software components that need to work successfully together. Any errors, bugs or viruses in
any software may harm the operation of these games and thus have an adverse effect on Funcom’s ability to gain revenues. Similarly any errors, power failures, shortcuts etc. in any hardware
component may harm the operation of online games and thus have an adverse effect on Funcom’s ability to gain revenues. Further, the games Funcom develop may not perform equally well on all
PC configurations – impacting sales negatively. Although Funcom endeavours to reduce the technological risks before a game launch and during the operations of a game, these risks will
always be present to some degree at launch.

Hacking
Funcom’s online games may be subject to hacking activities. Any hacking activity may affect Funcom’s ability to operate its games, which will affect Funcom’s ability to gain revenues. Risks related to the Internet Funcom’s online games are operated on the Internet. Funcom’s revenues are therefore dependent on the continued and uninterrupted operation of the Internet. Any adverse incident, hereunder but
not limited to bugs, viruses, worms, etc. affecting the Internet may affect Funcom’s ability to gain revenues.

Theft or loss of source code
Funcom’s source code is stored in a fireproof safe, but is also available to employees working on the Company’s games. Should all or parts of the source code be stolen or lost, this may affect
Funcom’s ability to gain revenues or reduce its technological edge in the market. Economic risks

Macroeconomic fluctuations
Funcom is exposed to the economic cycle, since changes in the general economic situation could affect demand for Funcom’s products. Computer games are used for entertainment and therefore
the demand may decline during recession when disposable income decreases.

Variability of operating results etc.
Funcom’s operating results may vary from month to month. Funcom’s operating result may be hard to forecast due to unpredictable demand for its products, the competitive environment, other general
economic and market conditions and unanticipated difficulties in pursuing Funcom’s business strategy.

Changes in the gaming industry in general
The market for Funcom’s products and services is competitive and trend oriented. Failure of Funcom to maintain competitive products and services offering could have a material adverse effect on
Funcom. If the generally expected market growth fails to materialize, the profitability of the Company’s games is likely to suffer.

Contracts
Non-Norwegian law governs several of Funcom’s agreements. In addition, dispute resolution is set to venues in different places in Europe and the US. This may increase the legal risk and increase
the costs in connection with the enforcement of any specific agreement.

International operations
Operations in international markets are subject to risks inherent in international business activities, including in particular general economic conditions in each such country, overlapping differing tax
structures, managing an organization spread over various jurisdictions, currency fluctuations, and unexpected changes in regulatory requirements and complying with a variety of foreign laws and
regulations.

Currency fluctuations
Because a considerable share of Funcom’s business is conducted in currencies other than its functional currency, Funcom will be exposed to volatility associated with foreign currency exchange
rates. Funcom invoices all non-EU customers in US dollar and Russian rubble, while EU customers are invoiced in Euro, British pound and Polish zloty. Normally, the Group’s cash position in
Norwegian kroner is significant compared to its total assets. The majority of the operational expenses is denominated in Norwegian kroner and is perceived by the management as a natural
hedge against the large position in Norwegian kroner. See note 24 for further information.

Tax exposure

The Company is incorporated in the Netherlands with subsidiaries in Canada, Norway, China, and the USA. The overall tax charge will depend on where profits are accumulated and taxed since these
countries have different tax systems and tax rates. The Funcom Group is today taxed under a number of different legal systems with different laws for tax residency, tax credits and tax exemption
rules. Consequently, the Funcom Group is exposed to changes of tax policies and changes of tax legislations, proactively and/or retroactively. The Company is of the view that it reports profits and
losses in accordance with tax rules applicable to the Funcom Group. The tax authorities in the jurisdictions where the Funcom Group operates are not bound by the judgment of the Company,
and there can be no assurance that they will agree to it. If one or more of the relevant tax authorities challenges the Company’s view, this may result in an increased overall tax charge.

Sales tax exposure
The Group generates sales transactions from potentially all over the world. Because of this, the Group is exposed to different sales tax, including VAT issues. Per January 1, 2015 a new EU VAT
regulation became effective where electronic services will be taxed in the country where the customer is established rather than where the service provider is located. This change in regulation
created VAT exposure in different EU states and will also increase the overall amount of VAT to be remitted given the difference in VAT rates in each state. Should the group fail to comply with the
different regulations it might lead to real cash costs, including irrecoverable VAT, penalties, and interest.

Deferred tax asset
The management has discussed to which extent the Group will be able to utilize the deferred tax asset, and has adjusted the amount in the statement of financial position accordingly.
In evaluating the Group’s ability to utilize the deferred tax assets, all available positive and negative evidence has been considered, including past operating results, the existence of cumulative losses
in the most recent fiscal years and our forecast of future taxable income on a jurisdiction by jurisdiction basis, as well as feasible and prudent tax planning strategies. These assumptions require
significant judgment about the forecasts of future taxable income and are consistent with the plans and estimates Funcom management are using to run the underlying businesses. See note 10.

Financial risk
Funcom has a history of operating losses mainly as a result of the significant investments made in the Company’s games. As a result, the Company has also a convertible debt (convertible bond) with
maturity in 2018. The Company’s strategy of producing smaller and experimental games in addition to larger and more revenue driven games is meant to increase the number of game releases to
provide multiple revenue streams and restore the profitability and the liquidity of the Company. Initial indications from the launch of Conan Exiles in Q1 2017 confirm that this strategy is starting to
succeed and the company hopes that it will continue to do so going forward. The Company’s overall performance is largely dependent on the revenues from existing and future games and investors
should refer to the Going concern assessment in the Report of the Management Board for a more thorough assessment.

Compliance risk
Funcom is a public company with shares traded on Oslo Stock exchange. Therefore the Company has the obligation to comply with strict securities trading rules and regulations applicable in Norway
and the Netherlands. Failure to comply could lead to penalties and other sanctions.[/details]

Om ein les ut frå dei her, så er det kanskje lettare å forstå at ein er skeptisk til Funcom, dersom ein ikkje trur på Funcom #2 - Funcom har fått pes for ganske mange av punkta som er nevnt:
Pingperfect, reviews, levering av barbarian t-skjorter, har CE mista sin appell? etc etc.

Men, eg har no trua på Funcom #2 eg då.

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I praksis taper man vel nærmest aldri alt over natta (unntatt ved bruk av giring da…). Mer nærliggende er å overse det negative og søke bekreftelse av det man håper på med den følge at man for eksempel snitter ned isteden for å ta tap, kanskje med mer enn man hadde tenkt eller råd til, og “plutselig” så er tapet større enn det opprinnelige innskuddet. Så kommer enda noe negativt fra selskapet og da er det tapt. :disappointed:
Edit: tenkte generelt her.

Man må aldri være all inn i noen aksje, men det lærer man til slutt :wink:

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