âCapesize
rates rose 9% yesterday and stand now at USD17,162/day. The BDI (Baltic
Dry Index) has now risen by 95% to 1151 from 589 at end of May, mainly
driven by the Capesize segment. Cape spot rates are up by 301% in the
same period,â said DNB Marketsâ shipping analysts Niciolay Dyvik, Oyvind
Berle, and Petter Haugen.
âWe believe the improvement is driven by increasing Atlantic iron ore
volumes (Vale reported an all-time-high 2Q15 production recently), also
helped by low Chinese inventories (down 18% YTD, 26% YOY),â the analysts
said in a market report emailed to IHS Maritime.
âIn our opinion the dry bulk segment was never oversupplied to the
extent one should believe by looking at the spot rates (1H15 Capesize
rates averaged USD4,591/day),â they pointed out.
A decline in Chinese coal imports has been blamed for the recent
prolonged weakness, but as the 90 million tonnes of annual decline in
Chinese coal trade equals only to a 2% loss of demand," they noted.
Rising coal imports to India combined with high pace of demolition sales
that have removed 20 million dwt, or 2.6% of the dry bulk fleet being
scrapped so far this year, have helped the market, they said.
This was also highlighted by Erik Nikolai Stavseth and Kurt Waldeland,
shipping analysts at Arctic Securities in Oslo. âWe estimate that close
to 19 million dwt was scrapped in 1H15 - an annual run-rate of around 38
million dwt. Owners demolished 1.8 million dwt in June alone, the
lowest monthly figure so far this year,â they said in a market report.
âThe decline in scrapping in June can partly be ascribed to the monsoon
season and continued downward pressure on scrap prices. We still expect
scrapping to reach all-time high levels in 2015, exceeding 40 million
dwt,â they said.
âOn the contracting side, owners have understandably been reluctant to
place new orders. Following a very slow May, only one single vessel was
ordered in June. July has started equally slow and we do not expect
contracting to pick up near term. Increased scrapping, coupled with
ordering coming to a complete halt, is paving the way for a gradual
improvement of the supply/demand balance as we move into 2016,â the two
Arctic Securities analysts concluded. - See more at:
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