Diskusjon Triggere PortefĂžljer AksjonĂŠrlister

Generell Shippingprat 🚱

Skal vi se kurser opp deilige hÞyder, mÄ snart kjÞpe skjÞnner jeg

NB! FRA 17.09

Teknisk Analyse av Frontline:
Aksjen er i en stigende trend, og hvor videre oppgang signaliseres for aksjen i tiden fremover innenfor denne stigende trenden. FÞrste tekniske motstandsnivÄ er nÄ rundt 25,00 kroner, men brytes det nivÄet (slik vi tror hos Aksjeanalyser.com) sÄ vil det vÊre lite teknisk motstand videre oppover fÞr rundt 35,00 kroner. Vi har hos Aksjeanalyser.com et kortsiktig (3-6 mÄneder) kursmÄl for Frontline-aksjen ved 35,00 kroner. PÄ litt lenger sikt (12 mÄneder) sÄ ser vi et potensiale for aksjen opp mot 70,00 kroner. Det vil i sÄ fall innebÊre en tredobling av aksjekursen fra dagens nivÄ rundt 23,59 kroner. Selv om aksjen skulle tredoble seg og stige opp mot 70,00 kroner pÄ 12 mÄneders sikt, og slik vi hos Aksjeanalyser.com tror aksjen kan gjÞre. Ja sÄ er det fortsatt langt igjen til tidligere hÞyeste nivÄ for Frontline-aksjen fra sommeren 2008 da aksjen var rundt 350,00 kroner.SÄ selv om aksjen skulle tredoble seg til 70,00 kroner i lÞpet av de
neste 12 mÄneder sÄ vil den fortsatt ha falt med cirka 80 prosent siden den var rundt 350,00 kroner sommeren 2008. Du kan fÞlge utviklingen for Frontline-aksjen hos IG her


Diagram over kursutviklingen for Frontline-aksjen:

26/10-2015 08:40:00: (FRO, FRO.N, FROO.ST, E-FROO.BTSE) FRO - Frontline Ltd. announces date of Special General Meeting of Shareholders to approve the previously announced merger with Frontline 2012
HAMILTON, BERMUDA - October 26, 2015

Reference is made to the announcement dated July 2, 2015, that Frontline Ltd.
(NYSE/OSE/LSE: FRO) (“Frontline”) and Frontline 2012 Ltd. (NOTC: FRNT)
(“Frontline 2012”) have entered into an agreement and plan of merger, pursuant
to which the two companies have agreed to enter into a merger transaction, with
Frontline as the surviving legal entity and Frontline 2012 becoming a wholly-
owned subsidiary of Frontline.

Frontline advises that its Special General Meeting of Shareholders (the “Special
Meeting”) to approve the merger transaction will be held on Monday November
30, 2015, subject to timely effectiveness of the joint proxy
statement/prospectus of Frontline.

Frontline has fixed the close of business on Monday November 2, 2015 as the
record date for the determination of the shareholders entitled to receive notice
and vote at the Special Meeting or any adjournments or postponements thereof.

Formal notices of the Special Meeting and the joint proxy statement/prospectus
will be sent to shareholders as of the record date.

Important Information For Investors And Shareholders

This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of
an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation of any vote or approval. In
connection with the proposed transaction between Frontline and Frontline 2012,
Frontline has filed relevant materials with the Securities and Exchange
Commission (the “SEC”), including a registration statement of Frontline on Form
F-4 (File No. 333-206542), initially filed on August 24, 2015 and subsequently
amended, that includes a joint proxy statement of Frontline 2012 and Frontline
that also constitutes a prospectus of Frontline. The registration statement has
not yet become effective. After the registration statement is declared effective
by the SEC, a definitive joint proxy statement/prospectus will be mailed to
shareholders of Frontline 2012 and Frontline. INVESTORS AND SECURITY HOLDERS OF
FRONTLINE 2012 AND FRONTLINE ARE URGED TO READ THE JOINT PROXY
STATEMENT/PROSPECTUS AND OTHER DOCUMENTS THAT WILL BE FILED WITH THE SEC
CAREFULLY AND IN THEIR ENTIRETY WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE BECAUSE THEY WILL
CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION. Investors and security holders will be able to
obtain free copies of the registration statement and the joint proxy
statement/prospectus (when available) and other documents filed with or
furnished to the SEC by Frontline through the website maintained by the SEC at
http://www.sec.gov. Copies of the documents filed with or furnished to the SEC
by Frontline will be available free of charge on Frontline’s website at http://
www.frontline.bm. Additional information regarding the participants in the proxy
solicitations and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by
security holdings or otherwise, will be contained in the joint proxy
statement/prospectus and other relevant materials to be filed with or furnished
to the SEC when they become available.

Forward -Looking Statements

Matters discussed in this press release may constitute forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements include statements concerning plans,
objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying
assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historical
facts. Words, such as, but not limited to “believe,” “anticipate,” “intends,”
“estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” “potential,” “may,” “should,”
“expect,” “pending” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding:

  • The effectuation of the transaction between Frontline and Frontline 2012
    described above;

  • The delivery to and operation of assets by Frontline;

  • Frontline’s and Frontline 2012’s future operating or financial results;

  • Future, pending or recent acquisitions, business strategy, areas of possible
    expansion, and expected capital spending or operating expenses; and

  • Tanker market trends, including charter rates and factors affecting vessel
    supply and demand.
    The forward-looking statements in this press release are based upon various
    assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions,
    including without limitation, examination of historical operating trends, data
    contained in records and other data available from third parties. Although
    Frontline believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because
    these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and
    contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond the
    control of Frontline, Frontline cannot assure you that they, or the combined
    company, will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections.
    In addition to these important factors, other important factors that could cause
    actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking
    statements, including the strength of world economies and currencies, general
    market conditions, including fluctuations in charter rates and vessel values,
    changes in demand for tanker shipping capacity, changes in the combined
    company’s operating expenses, including bunker prices, drydocking and insurance
    costs, the market for the combined company’s vessels, availability of financing
    and refinancing, changes in governmental rules and regulations or actions taken
    by regulatory authorities, potential liability from pending or future
    litigation, general domestic and international political conditions, potential
    disruption of shipping routes due to accidents or political events, vessels
    breakdowns and instances of off-hires and other factors. Please see Frontline’s
    filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of these and other risks and
    uncertainties. The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date
    hereof, and Frontline disclaims any intention or obligation to update any
    forward-looking statements as a result of developments occurring after the date
    of this communication.

Hamilton, Bermuda


NĂ„ har fusjon blitt faktum

Sitter med bittelitt aksjer i Tanker Investment (TIL). De har
10x Suezmax
6x Aframax
2x Coated Aframax
2x VLCC

Ratene ser veldig bra ut, spesielt for Suezmax og Aframax.

Kan ikke si at jeg er veldig imponert over hvordan selskapet er drevet, men pÄ de fÞrste ni mÄnedene sÄ har de 1,28 USD, eller 11,11NOK i earnings pr aksje. Q4 blir nesten helt sikkert et knallkvartal ettersom de tok over 6 Suezmax tankere i lÞpet av Q3 (skulle vÊrt i starten av Q3). Sistnevnte er nok ogsÄ grunnen til at aksjen har stÄtt litt pÄ stedet hvil, markedet forventet at hadde inntektene derfra hele Q3.

SÄvidt jeg vet, sÄ er market cap vesentlig mindre enn det skipene koster, sÄ i det store og det hele, sÄ er nok selskapet veldig underpriset. Dette er skipping dog, og man vet aldri nÄr ratene krÊsjer. Jeg hÄper pÄ en prising som ligner de underliggende verdiene fÞr vi kommer dit.

Anyway, jeg hadde ikke vÊrt overrasket over 16-20kr i earnings for 2015. Med en pris pÄ ca 100kr, sÄ har de en P/E pÄ 5-6.

Her er en kort presentasjon av Tanker Investments som jeg synes var kort og grei: http://tankerinvestments.com/investor/financials-presentations/

Interessant Ä se at de forventer 30kr utbytte i Äret hvis ratene holder seg pÄ ti Ärs snitt. Pr dags dato sÄ er ratene hÞyere enn dette, men Q4 er gjerne det beste kvartalet. Det blir neppe noe utbytte i Är, ettersom de har tenkt Ä betale ned pÄ lÄn. Til neste Är er planen Ä begynne med utbytte.

Med lav oljepris framover, sÄ tror jeg vi kan fÄ noen gode Är for tank framover.

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30 kr utbytte per aksje?

Det er jo fantastisk, 30% !

Jepp, men det er jo en rimelig stor “hvis” der, nemlig at tank-ratene holder seg pĂ„ 10 Ă„rs snitt. Akkurat nĂ„ er de godt over, men tank-ratene er jo notorisk ustabile.

Hvis du ser pÄ slide 4 fra presentasjonen over, sÄ var f.eks ratene i Q3 for 2010, 2011 og 2012 under break-even. Grunnen til at 10 Ärs snitt er sÄ hÞyt er at i boom-Ärene 2007-2008 sÄ var ratene skyhÞye.

@Irathi har du sett pÄ caset? Jeg hadde satt pris pÄ andre enn mine egne tanker her. :slight_smile:

Skal se pÄ det, hÞre litt med gamlingen ogsÄ, han jobber i shipping.

Til over helgen sikkert.

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Da brÞt TIL ned gjennom SMA 200, vanligvis et signal om at markedet ikke har troen pÄ aksjen. For TIL Ä vÊre, sÄ var ogsÄ volumet ogsÄ relativt hÞyt.

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Ny rateoppdatering for Suezmax, Aframax og LR2 fra 20. november:

Suezmax sidelengs pÄ rett over 50.000$ dagen, Aframax pÄ nesten 40.000$ dagen og LR2 pÄ vei ned mot 20.000$. Bra for TIL som har 10 Suezmax og 6 Aframax.

Snittet som blir nevnt her er 28.000$ dagen for Aframax, sÄ akkurat nÄ sÄ er ratene over 40% hÞyere.

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@Irathi fÄtt sett noe pÄ denne? :smile:

PĂ„ tide Ă„ prĂžve en tur med Gogl ? :

Fra FA tirsdag :

Tror pÄ kurshopp for Golden Ocean
HEGNAR ONLINE
John Fredriksens bulkrederi Golden Ocean legge frem tall for 3. kvartal i dag.
«En svakere utvikling i tÞrrbulkmarkedet enn ventet sÄ sent som i begynnelsen av august gjÞr at vi har tatt ned de kortsiktige estimatene», skriver DNB Markets i en oppdatering.
Meglerhuset venter en EBITDA for 3. kvartal pÄ 7,6 millioner dollar, hvilket er 2 millioner dollar over konsensus. Videre ventes et netto resultat pÄ minus 11,9 millioner dollar, mot konsensus pÄ minus 20 millioner dollar.
«Utsiktene for likviditet og kontantstrÞm fremover vil imidlertid kunne fÄ mer oppmerksomhet enn tredje kvartalstallene ved presentasjonen», slÄs det fast.
Meglerhuset har en kjÞpsanbefaling pÄ Golden Ocean, men har tatt kursmÄlet ned til 2,9 dollar pr. aksje (rundt 25 kroner pr. aksje).
Mandag ettermiddag gÄr Golden Ocean for 14,10 kroner, opp 5,6 prosent. Siden nyttÄr har aksjen stupt 59 prosent. Oppsiden er pÄ 77 prosent, dersom kursmÄlet til DNB Markets innfris.
BW Offshore var ned 9,5 prosent til 3,05 kroner pÄ Oslo BÞrs i gÄr ettermiddag etter Ä ha lagt frem rapporten for 3. kvartal. Selve tallene var noe bedre enn ventet, men selskapet varsler utbyttestopp inntil utsiktene i markedet bedres.

Har ikke det

Og der var Tanker Investment tilbake med kjĂžp av egne aksjer: http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20151125.OBI.20151125S4


 jeg klarer aldri helt Ä bestemme meg for Ä kjÞpe mer TIL. Hadde nok vÊrt et godt kjÞp pÄ 98kr, tipper egen-kjÞpene nÄ vil drive kursen opp mot 110kr igjen fÞr de gir seg.

SÄ kjÞp nÄ da vel?

98 eller 101 kr, ? - om du har troen sÄ er jo ikke den forskjellen noe Ä bry seg om

GOGL er tilbake til finanskrise nivÄer.

Baltic dry indeksen er pÄ 5-year low.

Ny krise eller er bunnen nÄdd?

2 Likes

SpÞrsmÄlet er om GOGL overlever uten emisjoner fram til markedet tar seg opp igjen, og nÄr det tar seg opp. Baltic Dry indeksen er vel sÄpass lav fordi Kina kjÞper mindre kull og jernmalm enn tidligere. Den eneste jeg kan se evt. som kan ta over den rollen er India, men de er ikke der i dag.

Er spent pÄ FRO nÄ etter fusjonen med FRNT, fÄr vi den vanlige Þkningen i ratene som pleier Ä komme omtrent pÄ denne tiden av Äret tror jeg det endelig kan bli lÞnnsomt Ä sitte i tankaksjer igjen. Virker som det er ganske god balanse mellom tilbud og etterspÞrsel og det flommer ikke over av nybygg heller det neste Äret. TÞrrbulk virker helt utbombet, hvordan skal selskapene overleve vis ikke ratene snur nÄ.

1 Like

Enig :smile:

ganske stor omsetning i FRO idag pÄ OB

Cut and paste fra hegnar-forumet

Pareto er idag ute med en oppdatert analyse. Kan vĂŠre greitt Ă„ se de viktigste poengene, som jeg klipper og limer:

.

A tanker-value case

Tanker Investments is now buying back shares with both hands in the open market, just as VLCC rates have passed the six digit mark. As shipping equities struggle – and Frontline is the only tanker company that achieves above-NAV valuation – management’s decision not to spend all of its buy-back power at once proved right, and the current development is very accretive for shareholders in the long run. TIL will never be the stock to buy to capture today’s boom in VLCC rates, but in the long run we argue that the current entry point will prove to be a bargain. Reiterate BUY with TP USD 18.1/NOK 157"

"Net fleet value of NOK 124/share a year from nowIf we just look at the development over the next year – simply adjusting for the fleet becoming one year older (and using net debt per Q3’15) would yield a value of NOK 124 per share.

Adjusting for earnings in the meaning, earnings that either could be used to buy back shares (which would be very accretive) or paid out as dividend, we could see the fair value of TIL becoming NOK 157 over the next year. This implies exactly 50% upside from the current level, an upside we fail to see in any other commodity shipping companies under our coverage.


 og dette er grunnen til at jeg har en liten post i TIL. Det eneste som har skjedd siden jeg har kjÞpt er at ratene har gÄtt opp som forventet i Q4 og TIL har fÄtt kjÞpt tilbake aksjer til rundt 85% av NAV.

Graf over ratene oppdater til og med 4. desember 2015 for Suezmax/Aframax/LR2

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