Hva tenker dere om LPG fremover? Hadde jo aldri trodd Avance skulle ned til 20 igjen. Husker bÄde den og BWLPG lÄ ekstremt lenge nede for telling fÞr det plutselig tok helt av og de 3 doblet seg begge to. Ta plass nÄ, vÊre tÄlmodig og bli med pÄ en ny reise?
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KjÞpte mer STNG i dag pga heftig LR2 rater. FRO har ogsÄ et par av de bÄtene.
Kan virke som at FRO gapper ned i morgen. Kan vÊre en ide Ä ta en posisjon pÄ formiddagen og eventuelt selge nÄr US Äpner. Den strategien har i hvert fall fungert bra i det siste.
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Fant noen som er mer bullish enn meg pÄ tank!
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Fra linken til @Krosta.
Gir noen interessante perspektiver
Schieldrop said onshore production connected to refineries, ports or storage facilities by pipelines is most vulnerable to having to cease production when oil has nowhere to go.
He quoted Argus in saying that last week a US WTI oil cargo was shipped from Houston to Asia with an implicit fob (freight on board) Houston docks price of $0.75 per barrel.
It means, he said, that Brent crude which can be shipped out into storage or the last buying destinations could be trading at $15-20 per barrel when onshore crude oil prices are close to zero. But as more tankers are used for storage, then fewer will be available for transport.
âThis implies that the competition for VLCCs for storage and transportation in an oil market in continuous surplus will continue until the Brent crude oil price fob ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region) equals zero and the VLCC freight cost to China sums up to $50 per barrel which for a 2m barrel VLCC cargo equals $100m total freight cost.
âOn a 50-day trip from the North Sea to Shanghai it would imply a VLCC rate of $2m per day,â he said.
Schieldrop said it is unlikely the seaborne Brent crude oil price will move all the way to zero, but he expects more heavy downward pressure on oil market prices.
Last week when the WTI price went negative there were 109m barrels of oil open for May contracts. Currently there are long positions on 338m barrels to be sold before the 19 May deadline for the June contract
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En gigantkontrakt i en sÊrdeles vanskelig tid. Spennende Ä se hvordan markedet vil reagere pÄ denne nÄr bÞrsene Äpner igjen.
"Kontrakten er ventet Ä ha en varighet pÄ ni Är, der den fra 2022 estimeres Ä dra inn over to milliarder dollar, eller 20 milliarder kroner, i Ärlige inntekter
Det er ogsÄ ventet at den vil positivt pÄvirke rederiets resultat fÞr av- og nedskrivninger (ebitda) innen ni mÄneder.
Oppstartskostnader vil riktignok gjÞre at marginen pÄ kontrakten vil vÊre pÄ mellom null og to prosent de neste to Ärene."
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