Hunter rører på seg, og ratene i alle bassengene er på vei oppover.
Etter et år med rater som skraper bunnen ser VLCC-redere endelig tidlige tegn på et vintermarked, med økt etterspørsel i alle lastingsområder, skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport.
Stormer og forsinkelser i Fjerne Østen holder tonnasje bunnet opp i lengre perioder i lossingshavner, opplyses det.
Interessant analyse fra Intermodal:
Katerina Restis, which is an expert in tanker chartering department with Intermodal said that “the swipe from the present 3.5% to 0.5% Sulphur content marine fuel will practically be an overnight shift as refineries would need to continue production and supply of up to 3.5% marine fuel until the day regulation requirement kicks in. Global refining will face enormous logistics, storage and delivery issues, while ships will have to clean out fuel systems to avoid Sulphur contamination. Thus, there is a risk such quick swing to lead to a period of product shortages and inflated marine oil prices. According to data reported on average up to 2017, the shipping industry was consuming approximately 3.2m barrels p/d of HFO and 800k p/d of MGO. Accordingly, from 2020 onwards it is estimated that proportion will alter to 700k p/d of HFO to 3.4m barrels p/d of MGO. Obviously, the use of compliant Sulphur oil products will be the expensive solution for ship-owners that will either absorb the cost or possibly operators will try to pass the cost to Charterers via increased freight rates”.
To sum up, in the scenario that refineries restrict the availability of HFO on expected higher margins from selling MGO, then vessels fitted with scrubbers might face challenges in relation to adequate supply of HFO. On the other hand, refineries worry that any surge in the use of MGO would head to excess quantity of HFO. For sure refineries are not rushing to big investments to change production set ups while ship-owners are still considering their options. It’s a dilemma for all parties and a puzzle to be solved
Rapporten finner du her: Intermodal-Report-Week-39-2018.pdf (1,7 MB)