Det er vel det de fleste spekulerer i, så skulle det motsatte skje får man vel bevitne noe så sjeldent som follow-through på brudd ned 
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Ja. Før eller senere får «buy the dip - gutta» en midt i trynet.
Kan godt være nå. Markedet er dyrt.
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Vi ser nå et kraftig fall i volumene ut av byggevarehus, opp mot 15 prosent mot fjorår, og enda mer i privatsegmentet, sier konsernsjef Mikkel Sandvik i Mestergruppen.
Tror de skal være veeeldig forsiktige med å øke renten. Ellers får vi en kjempesmell. Det er en grunn til at FED mener at den høye inflasjonen var midlertidig. Norges bank derimot…
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
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Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been absorbing about $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities. But Fed officials have said in recent weeks that by the end of the year, the economy will likely make the “substantial further progress” needed for the central bank to begin slowing the pace of those purchases.
“If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the FOMC statement reads.
The central bank only has two more meetings this year to announce a taper: in early November and in mid-December.
Så hvis alt går på skinner fram til jul, så vil de begynne å kjøpe mindre gjeld. Renten ser ut til å skulle ligge urørt.
Første gang siden 29. oktober 2020 at vi har satt en ordentlig lower low på indeks tror jeg. Så verdt å ta med seg.
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Tenker det bare er noen uker igjen til USA har vedtatt budsjettet sitt og hevet gjeldstaket. Akkurat nå, så venter det bare på at demokratene innser at de enten må la republikarene bestemme noe av budsjettet og heve gjeldstaket sammen med dem, eller bestemme selv og heve gjeldstaket alene. Evt så venter demokratene bare til det blir såpass kritisk at de “bare måtte heve gjeldstaket, dette var uansvarlig av republikarene”.
Litt vanskelig å se når midten av oktober er men er ca på den andre nedadstigende toppen din. Hvis det fortsatt ikke er på plass da, så kan det nok hende markedene begynner å bli litt ekstra ruglete 
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97% sikker på at dette blir resultatet. Den reelle uenigheten er mellom progressive og moderate demokrater, støyen rundt gjeldstaket og republikanere er bare spill for galleriet. Det eneste av betydning er at gjeldstaket setter en slags tidsbegrensning for hvor lenge demokratene kan krangle internt.
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Det stemmer 
Mtp. hva som ble sagt av Powell i går synes jeg egentlig futures ser svake ut. Hadde forventet et mye større lettelsesrally basert på at Evergrande har blåst over og Powell ikke ga noen konkret dato for tapering. Hovedindeksen tester når brudd ned av wedgen, spent på om dette var en fake-out.
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Kan det være at det ikke var de sakene som egentlig preget indeksen? 
Er det noe annet som skjer i USA om dagen som påvirker amerikansk økonomi som er usikkert?
Jeg vil ikke si det ikke har “preget” indeksen; du så jo hva som skjedde på mandag når Evergrande var “all over the place”. FOMC møtet var business as usual. Indeksen er nå tilbake der den var på fredag
https://www.norges-bank.no/en/topics/Monetary-policy/Monetary-policy-meetings/2021/september-2021/
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee has unanimously decided to raise the policy rate from zero percent to 0.25 percent.
“A normalising economy now suggests that it is appropriate to begin a gradual normalisation of the policy rate,” says Governor Øystein Olsen.
The reopening of society has led to a marked upswing in the Norwegian economy, and activity is now higher than its pre-pandemic level. Unemployment has fallen further, and capacity utilisation appears to be close to a normal level. Infection rates have risen after summer, but a high vaccination rate has reduced the need for Covid-related restrictions. The economic upswing will likely continue through autumn. Underlying inflation is low, but increased activity and rising wage growth will help push inflation up towards the inflation target of 2 percent.
A normalising economy suggests that there is no longer a need to maintain the current degree of monetary accommodation. The objective of countering the build-up of financial imbalances also suggests higher interest rates. Uncertainty surrounding the effects of higher interest rates warrants a gradual rise in the policy rate.
In its discussion of the balance of risks, the Committee was concerned with the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the pandemic and the restraining effect that new virus variants could potentially have on the economic upturn. At the same time, there is still a risk that the pandemic will have lasting consequences for employment. This favours supporting economic growth to enable the unemployed to return to work more quickly. On the other hand, capacity constraints may result in faster-than-expected price and wage inflation. Nevertheless, the Committee judges that the risk of inflation becoming too high is limited.
“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks, the policy rate will most likely be raised further in December,” says Governor Øystein Olsen.
The policy rate forecast implies a gradual rate rise in the coming years. The policy rate path is a little higher than in the June 2021 Monetary Policy Report.
The press conference starts at 10.30 am 23 September 2021 (In Norwegian)
Rate effective from 24 September 2021:
- Policy rate: 0.25 %
- Overnight lending rate: 1.25 %
- Reserve rate: -0.75 %
Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks, it will be appropriate to raise the policy rate gradually in the coming period. The policy rate forecast indicates a rate of 1% one year ahead and 1.7% towards the end of 2024.
Så 1% rente i sept 2022 og 1,7% rente på slutten av 2024.
Jeg forventer egentlig en sterkere norsk krone, spesielt hvis USA/EU ikke hever renten snart.
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Tviler på Evergrande ikke vil gi mere uro på børsene:
Denne uken startet med børsuro verden over, på grunn av frykt for at Evergrande skulle gå over ende. I dag har eiendomsselskapet betalingsfrist på renter og avdrag, og i går meldte de at de hadde inngått avtale på yuan-obligasjonene. Da kom det ingen meldinger om betalingen av dollar-obligasjonene som også har betalingsfrist i dag.
Chinese Estate Holding selger Evergrande-aksjer
En av de største eierne i selskapet, Chinese Estate Holding, har den siste måneden solgt 108,9 millioner Evergrande-aksjer, for til sammen 246,5 millioner yuan, skriver Bloomberg.
Selskapet vurderer å selge hele aksjebeholdningen sin, og kan da ta et tap på 9,5 milliarder Hongkong-dollar, ifølge nyhetsbyrået. Siden nyttår har aksjen til selskapet falt mer enn 80 prosent.
Den administrerende direktøren Chan Hoi Wan, i Chinese Estate, Chan Hoi Wan, har solgt seg ned i det forgjeldede selskapet. Det er ifølge nyhetsbyrået et tegn på at selv de langvarige støttespillerne til Evergrande-sjef Hui Ka Yan nå har mistet troen.
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Sluppet det meste av kortsiktige dippkjøp her. Porteføljen på ATH.
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Viktig poeng at disse aktørene solgte før avtalen med myndighetene var offentliggjort.
Hvordan skal de makte å betale over 80mill usd, når de har 2600 milliardermi gjeld?
TDN Direkt
Kina ber Evergrande unngå mislighold av dollar-obligasjon
Kinesiske myndigheter har bedt Evergrande om å unngå mislighold av sine obligasjoner i amerikanske dollar på kort sikt.
Det rapporterer internasjonale medier, blant annet LiveSquawk og Forexlive, som viser til kilder.
Evergrande har kupongbetaling på 83,53 millioner dollar torsdag.
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